Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Atlantic Hurricane Season Will Be Less Active, AccuWeather Says

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation indices are all showing negative sea surface temperature anomalies.
The AMO, ENSO combination indicates slightly fewer hurricanes with those that do arise having a better than average chance of an east coast landfall* vs. Gulf of Mexico strikes. However the most recent ENSO number -.41 is below the La Nina threshold of -.5 degree.
From Bloomberg:
The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will produce 13 named storms, down from 16 last year, forecasters said today. Eight will strengthen into hurricanes, the same as in 2008, the company said.

Four of the storms may strike the U.S. coast, according to the report prepared by AccuWeather’s chief hurricane forecaster, Joe Bastardi.

“This is a distinctly less-active season for the U.S. coastline,” AccuWeather’s Ken Reeves said by telephone from the company’s headquarters in State College, Pennsylvania.

The hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, will still be above average if the prediction is correct. An average season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

In May of last year, AccuWeather predicted 12 named storms would form in 2008....MORE

*Can you imagine the headlines when the next New York hurricane hits?
We had some backround in a 2007 post "Sedimentary evidence of hurricane strikes in western Long Island, New York".