Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Satellite Global Average Lower Tropospheric Temperature Anomaly Down Dramatically In January (and an update on the prop bet)

Diarrhea outbreaks averted (for now)

From Dr. Roy Spencer at the University of Alabama - Huntsville, February 4: 

UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for January, 2025: +0.46 deg. C

The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for January, 2025 was +0.46 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, down substantially from the December, 2024 anomaly of +0.62 deg. Most of this cooling was over the global oceans.

https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_January_2025_v6.1_20x9-scaled.jpg

The Version 6.1 global area-averaged temperature trend (January 1979 through January 2025) remains at +0.15 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans)....

....MUCH MORE

This follows the record-high anomalies recorded in 2024 but is consistent with our prop. bet from May 2024.  

From the January 3 update:

Our proposition bet has the UAH figure falling from +0.95°C the day we announced the bet, May 2, 2024 (three days later the April figure was announced, +1.05°C, not very good timing on the part of yours truly) to +0.45°C by the termination date:

Here's a prop bet for you. By May 15, 2026 we will see the satellite-measured -inferred global lower atmospheric temperature anomaly decline by at least 1/2 degree C.

The two keepers of the satellite record are Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa CA and the University of Alabama-Huntsville.

Here's the temperature graph from UAH:....

If interested here is the series of monthly posts tracking the bet. 

0.01°C away from the target.

If I was smart I'd just declare victory today, a full 15 months ahead of schedule and let the bet melt into the noise of the internet but as they say at the better science schools: Homie don't roll that way.