Great, just effin' great. I had to go shooting my mouth off with a prop bet on May 2, couldn't wait for the new number to be released, no sirree, had to be posted when the memory to post it was triggered:
Here's a prop bet for you. By May 15, 2026 we will see the satellite-
measured-inferred global lower atmospheric temperature anomaly decline by at least 1/2 degree C.The two keepers of the satellite record are Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa CA and the University of Alabama-Huntsville.
Here's the temperature graph from UAH:....
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and repeated: "Again the baseline for the prop bet: the above 'Latest Global Temp. Anomaly (March '24: +0.95°C)'"
Well here's Roy Spencer, PhD from the University of Alabama-Huntsville at his personal site, later on that same day that shall live in infamy, May 2, 2024:
UAH Global Temperature Update for April, 2024: +1.05 deg. C
May 2nd, 2024The Version 6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2024 was +1.05 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up from the March, 2024 anomaly of +0.95 deg. C, and setting a new high monthly anomaly record for the 1979-2024 satellite period.
The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.15 C/decade (+0.13 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.20 C/decade over global-averaged land).
It should be noted that the CDAS surface temperature anomaly has been falling in recent months (+0.71, +0.60, +0.53, +0.52 deg. C over the last four months), while the satellite deep-layer atmospheric temperature has been rising. This is usually an indication of extra heat being lost by the surface to the deep-troposphere through convection, and is what is expected due to the waning El Nino event. I suspect next month’s tropospheric temperature will fall as a result.
The following table lists various regional LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 16 months (record highs are in red):....
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As the old-time stock traders used to say, "Well bought is half sold" meaning you entry price on a bet can be key to its success. And now I have to overcome a full 1/10 degree C self-imposed handicap. Aarrggh.
And, just to make things more interesting, the proposed temperature decline was one of the factors that led to me thinking I was some sort of Thales of Miletus with: "Trading The Olive Oil Market With Derivatives."
And, as the usurer said, "If you want to make time fly by take out a 90-day note." Or propose a bet two years and ten days hence when all the best climatologists make their forecasts for the year 2100, far enough out for most of those folks who heard the original pronouncement to have moved on or passed on.
