Wood Mackenzie On A Donald Trump Victory In November: "...could decelerate energy transition, with $1 trillion in energy investment on the line"

From WoodMac, May 16:

US November election results could decelerate energy transition, with $1 trillion in energy investment on the line
A Republican victory in 2024 could roll back decarbonisation policies and usher in a delayed energy transition for the US. Low carbon supply investment occurs, just not at the pace for net zero 

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) of 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 catapulted the US to global leadership in decarbonisation. But a victory for former President Donald Trump in the November 2024 election, combined with long-standing issues around the US relationship with China and US government deficits, could significantly alter the path of US energy policy and usher in a delayed transition scenario, according to a new Horizons report from Wood Mackenzie.

While investments for technologies that support the energy transition and low carbon technology may decelerate, the opposite effect might take place for fossil fuels, which could see expanded investment and push out peak fossil fuel demand, according to the report, “Hitting the brakes: how the energy transition could decelerate in the US."

“This election cycle will really influence the pace of energy investment, both in the next five years and through 2050. Investments in low carbon supply need to be made in the near term to realize longer-dated decarbonization targets. US carbon emissions could grow, putting net zero out of reach in our delayed transition scenario,” according to David Brown, director of Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Research.

“It is not likely that the IRA will be fully repealed,” said Brown. “However, a second Trump presidency would likely issue executive orders that would abandon the 2035 net zero target for the power sector, establish softer emissions goals from the EPA, and issue tax credit regulations that could favour blue hydrogen.”

Brown added that the fiscal environment may prove challenging as well, as US government spending could be limited to address the country’s debt burden – the US Congressional Budget Office expects the US debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 109% by 2030 and hit 155% by 2050....

....MUCH MORE

That last bit is one of the reasons we've been saying stuff like:

"...On the other hand, I'm not sure you would want to be President during the next four years,

 there are so many problems that have been growing and metastasizing just beneath the 

surface of the daily news that the person in the hot seat could end up just plain reviled."

Here's the version in March: "Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’"