Tuesday, February 25, 2025

"First Solar is Set to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?" (FSLR)

The last time we posted on FSLR some damn political pollster said Kamala Harris was going to take Iowa in the Presidential election, spurring false hope among solar fans and necessitating a margin call decision among those readers who had taken our October 30 comment to heart. From November 6's "UPDATED—Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer Destroyed The Dreams (and more importantly the finances) Of Renewable Energy Investors (FSLR)"

First Solar Update (FSLR)

Original post:

On October 30 we posted "First Solar Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript (FSLR)" with the intro line "It sounds like dead money for at least a quarter." Straight analysis in ten words informed by a lifetime at the market.

So far so good.

On November 2 the Des Moines Register published "Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how" about which the BBC gushed:

A new poll of voters in Iowa suggests that Kamala Harris is leading with 47% over Donald Trump's 44%.
The survey was released by the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who regularly carries out surveys for the Des Moines Register newspaper....
MarketWatch did not refer to the "highly regarded pollster", instead going with "Trump election odds tumble on betting markets after Iowa poll shows Harris lead".

The stock which had traded as low as $183.68 on October 30 (closing at $197.50), hit $221.20 on November 4.
 
This morning's MarketWatch story is headlined "Renewable-energy stocks tank after Trump wins White House"
The stock is trading at $183.20 down $32.69 (-15.14%).
Although nerve-wracking as that was, all's well that ends well, the stock was indeed dead money, $148.70 coming into today's earnings report:
Chart Image
 
And the ructions of early November are slowly fading into those sepia-toned memories that surround any trade past settlement date.
 
And the future? First up, the earnings mavens at Zacks via Yahoo Finance, February 21:
First Solar, Inc. FSLR is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 25, after market close.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

First Solar delivered a negative earnings surprise of 6.13% in the last reported quarter. However, the company has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 8.32%.

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to reflect in the upcoming quarterly results.
Factors to Note Ahead of FSLR’s Results

First Solar has been expanding its production capacity to meet growing solar demand. The company opened a new solar module factory in Alabama in the third quarter, which is expected to have boosted its module shipments and, thereby revenues in the fourth quarter.

However, Chinese manufacturers have been selling low-cost solar panels in India, which has created pricing pressure in the Indian market. This is likely to have reduced First Solar’s sales in India to some extent and, thereby impacted its top line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FSLR’s fourth-quarter sales is pinned at $1.47 billion, which indicates year-over-year growth of 26.9%....

....MUCH MORE

And from Investing.com February 11:
 
Street Calls of the Week 
....First Solar

What happened? On Tuesday, Mizuho upgraded First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) to Outperform with a $259 price target.

*TLDR: First Solar upgraded for tech edge, resilience. Analysts see tariffs, TOPCon driving outperformance.

What’s the full story? Mizuho’s upgrade is driven by a brighter post-2026 sales outlook. First Solar’s edge lies in its dominance of TOPCon technology, which leaves U.S. competitors stuck with pricier, less efficient PERC cells. Roth’s channel checks suggest this tech advantage solidifies First Solar’s position as the leader in a crowded field.

The stock’s YTD underperformance, the analysts note, likely reflects fears that the 45X manufacturing tax credit could vanish under a Republican administration. But here’s the kicker: even in Mizuho’s base case—where 45X gets a one-year off-ramp before expiring in 2027—First Solar is cushioned by tariffs, giving it stronger negotiating power. This resilience prompts Mizuho to raise 2027-2032 ASP estimates and bump its DCF-based price target by 19% to $259....

....MUCH MORE 

And the pollster? She retired, that was her last poll and I think someone paid her for that last poll.

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