Wednesday, February 12, 2025

"Nation's Largest Grid To Fast-Track NatGas Power Plants To Fuel Next AI Trade" (GEV)

From ZeroHedge, February 12:

Common sense has returned, and the adults are back in the White House. This time, they are not wearing toxic "climate-crisis blinders" that de-growth the economy, spark inflation, and push power grids into near points of failure with unreliable green energy. As "The Next AI Trade" unleashes massive power demand from data centers, electric vehicles, and other electrification trends through the decade's end and into 2030, electricity will have to become reliable and cheaper.

To achieve this, PJM Interconnection—which coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity and ensures power supplies for 65 million people across all or parts of 13 Eastern and Midwestern US states, as well as Washington, DC—will analyze 50 new projects aimed at improving grid stability in April, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission stated in an order on Tuesday. Bloomberg was the first to report this. 

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2025-02-12_07-47-29.png?itok=ShVkC79C

Forget solar and wind—PJM will prioritize massive natural gas generators in upcoming projects to ensure grid stability and lower power costs, which is one of the mandates the American people gave the president. These proposed projects will join 55 gigawatts of legacy projects, including batteries and renewables, all set for review this spring. 

The urgent move comes less than one month after PJM issued a Level 1 emergency and "Maximum Generation Alert" across the grid, as the polar vortex caused heating demand to surge.

FERC said last year that PJM warned of "resource adequacy concerns" on the grid after a surge in new data center construction and other electrification trends, including electric vehicles and on-shoring. 

"PJM is in grave danger of not having enough generation to meet demand," Commissioners David Rosner and Willie Phillips wrote in a statement.

Remember what Goldman noted about the Mid-Atlantic power crisis....

....MORE

Though not mentioned in the story GE Vernova is where you go to get your all-American, star-spangled, gas-fired utility-scale electricity generating turbines. European buyers might shop Siemens first.

See, if interested: 

Barron's Says Some Nice Things About GE Vernova (GEV)

Chevron Partners With GE Vernova and Investment Firm Engine No 1 To Power Data Centers (CVX; GEV)

"GE Vernova Hits A High As Troubled Wind Energy Unit Improves" (GEV)

I'm not sure the wind business is much of a driver for either the company or the stock, at least not this year. As we've mentioned, GEV is involved, one way or another, with something on the order of 30% of the world's electricity production. You want a gas-turbine co-gen set-up for your data center? Just call the sales peeps from General Electric, they've been doing it since 1882.*
"AI-exposed power stocks get crushed as fears about DeepSeek trigger stock market sell-off" (GEV; OKLO; PWR; CEG)
....Referring back to the introduction to this morning's "GE Vernova hit with downgrade by Guggenheim (GEV)":

And though it is based on valuation rather than corporate or macro events the downgrade is, unfortunately, from Guggenheim who have been very timely in their calls.

See for example December 5's "GE Vernova shares see 33% target hike from Guggenheim, Buy rating upheld"

In pre-market action the stock is down $57.49 (13.67%) to $363.00.

The other "quality" name we have been touting, electric infrastructure contractor Quanta Services is down  $28.01 (7.82%) at $330.02. 

It is days like today that are the reason we prefer quality over super-spec lottery tickets: the good ones come back (eventually) the rest may, or may not.

The small modular nuke wannabes OKLO; SMR and the quantum computing stocks, RGTI, QBTS etc. are among the lottery tickets that may or may not come back.

Quanta and GE Vernova will survive and thrive. Even without AI. The U.S. and the world need to string more powerlines and need more generating capacity that will come on line faster than nukes or a baby nukes....

On a generally down day the stock is off $2.51 (-0.67%) at $370.39. Here's the last six months of action via TradingView:

 Chart Image