The stock is trading up $13.38 (+9.07%) on the forward guidance (the just reported earnings missed analyst estimates by $1.04) to $$160.84.
Jumping into the middle of the prepared remarks for a look at the broader environment.
From Motley Fool Transcribing, February 25:
Prepared Remarks
Questions and Answers
Call Participants....A word about the overall market conditions and our policy environment. Beginning with the macro environment, President Trump has defined an expansive economic mandate that could reshape the U.S. economy over the next four years, particularly in terms of electricity production and consumption, as administration's goals of accelerating economic growth, reducing inflation, establishing global energy dominance bringing American manufacturing jobs back and Champion innovation, including artificial intelligence, require abundant, stable power generation. Forecast showed that the U.S.
will need 128 gigawatts of new capacity by 2029 to meet high summer peak demand. And while President Trump is expected to preside over the first meaningful growth in electricity demand this century, it will not be without challenges, the most significant of which is the time it takes to expand power generation capacity and grid infrastructure. Consider the new natural gas capacity could take half a decade to come online and cost twice as much as it did five years ago, thanks to supply chain constraints, including the shortage of turbines, large-scale nuclear power plants will take more than a decade to permit, construct, and commission. While decommissioned nuclear plants are an option, reportedly, only three assets can be economically recommissioned by 2028.
And while hyped and anticipated to be quicker to deploy, small modular reactors are not expected to operate commercially at gigawatt scale before 2035. Quite simply, in order to avoid potential energy price-related inflation, maintained its economic and innovation competitiveness, and secure its energy independence, the country cannot wait that long. Given its attributes of low cost and speed to deployment relative to other sources of energy generation, solar should clearly be a significant part of the near-term solution mix. The administration and Congress must ensure that this unprecedented growth in power generation capacity is not deep in the country's dependence on China and that American manufacturers have access to a level playing field.
The threat from China is existential and cannot be addressed through market factors, economics, and innovation alone. Given this backdrop, we continue to advocate for decisive actions to address China's dominance of the global solar supply chain and weaponization of subsidy-fueled overcapacity to undermine American manufacturing, energy security, and enduring middle-class jobs. This includes establishing more in entities of concern or fee laws that exclude companies tied to the Chinese communist party from assessing U.S. tax other funded incentives.
Considering the large number of Chinese manufacturers that have set up low-value-added U.S. assembly shops importing high-value oversea components to secure billions in incentives, FEOC legislation not only prevents China from unfairly accessing U.S. taxpayer-funded incentives, but it also impactfully reduces the cost of programs like 45X, advanced manufacturing tax credit, while ensuring that value created by domestic manufacturing is retained in the U.S. and not remitted to China.....
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And skipping further ahead to the guidance for 2025:
....So, it relates to our 2025 Section 45X credits, we are not forecasting the sale of these credits in 2025, and therefore, assuming no discount to the value of these credits for a sale to a third party. But as in previous years, we'll continue to evaluate options and valuations for earlier monetization. I'll now cover the full-year 2025 guidance ranges on Slide 11. Net sales guidance is between $5.3 billion and $5.8 billion.
Gross margin is expected to be between $2.45 billion and $2.75 billion or approximately 47%, which includes $1.65 billion to $1.7 billion of Section 45X tax credits and $50 million to $60 million of ramp on underutilization costs. SG&A expense is expected to total $180 million to $190 million versus $188 million in 2024, demonstrating our ability to leverage our largest fixed operating cost structure, while expanding production. R&D expense is expected to total $230 million to $250 million versus $191 million in 2024, R&D expenses increasing primarily due to commencing operations at our R&D innovation center and perovskite development line and the expectation of adding head count to our R&D team to further invest and advance research initiatives. SG&A and R&D expense combined is expected to total $410 million to $440 million and total operating expenses, which includes $60 million to $70 million of production start-up expense are expected to be between $470 million and $510 million.
Operating income is expected to be between $1.95 billion and $2.3 billion, implying an operating margin of approximately 38%, and is inclusive of $110 million to $130 million of combined ramp costs and plant start-up expense and $1.65 billion to $1.7 billion of Section 45X credits. Selling to nonoperating items. We expect interest income, interest expense, and other income to Net Zero. Full-year tax expense is forecast to be $100 million to $120 million.
This results in full-year 2025 earnings per diluted share guidance range of $17 to $20. Note from an earnings cadence perspective, we expect between 2.7 and 3 gigawatts of module sales in the first quarter at a gross margin similar to the full-year average, resulting in first-quarter earnings per diluted share of between $2.20 and $2.70. Capital expenditures in 2025 are expected to range from $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Approximately half of our capex is associated with capacity expansion, majority of which relates to our Louisiana plant with the remainder driven by R&D programs, technology replication, and maintenance....
....MUCH MORE
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