Shipping: Is Hapag-Lloyd Betting On The U.S. Being At War In The Next Year Or Three?

Two tweets in reverse Twitter order i.e. original tweet first:

@man_integrated 🧐
Hapag-Llyod changing 5 ships to US flag. Strange move as ships are not US built so no cabotage benefits....

"Each vessel will be included in the federal Maritime Security Program and made available for use when necessary by the US gov"https://t.co/5sKTt6a0jf

— Kenedy Assman (@kenedyassman) April 19, 2021

These are the kinds of indicators that sneak up on the chattering class/influencers/Galaxy Brains, leaving them scrambling to offer explainers days or weeks after the pieces have already positioned themselves on the board.

Remember:

Logistics is a map of human intent. https://t.co/dhYqHCcgMb

— HUNTSMAN 🇺🇸 (@man_integrated) April 19, 2021

One additional response to the original tweet:

It's not strange. The ships are being placed under the U.S. flag to take advantage of Maritime Security Program subsidies ($5 million per year and set to increase) as well as government-impelled cargo. See here: https://t.co/CyUVTkt67r pic.twitter.com/EgdUx0jGiP

— Colin Grabow (@cpgrabow) April 19, 2021

And another that showed the man from Cato was pretty much just winging it:

The five ships being reflagged are substantially larger than the ones exiting the MSP fleet.

85,000 vice 40,000 deadweight tons.

While there may not be a net increase in hulls, there is in terms of capacity.

— Sal Mercogliano 🚢⚓🧭🐪🚒 (@mercoglianos) April 19, 2021