Thursday, February 14, 2019

DR Congo Ebola Cases Pass 800; Deaths Over 500; No Cat Bond Trigger Yet

For whatever reason the current outbreak is not getting the attention the previous waves did.
First up, Statista, Feb. 12

DRC's Ebola outbreak surpasses 800 cases 
On 1 August last year, the World Health Organization officially declared an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Since then (as of 9 February 2019), there have been 811 cases of the disease - 750 confirmed and 61 probable - resulting in 510 deaths - 449 confirmed and 61 probable. These figures make it the second-largest outbreak of the virus in history...MORE 
Regarding the catastrophe bond, the World Bank Pandemic Emergency Financing bond triggers at 250 cases but also requires that an outbreak crosses a national border, which hasn't yet been reported although there was some suspicion neighboring Uganda had noted its first death a few days ago.
From the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Feb. 13:

Ebola infects 4 more in DRC as death prompts testing in Uganda
In the latest developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Ebola outbreak, the health ministry reported four new cases, as details emerged about a suspected Ebola death that triggered a swift response in Uganda, where the man's samples tested negative for the virus.
The new cases signal continued activity in some of the outbreak's current main hot spots, and the close-call in Uganda shows how fear of cross-border spread has prompted intensive tracking of contacts....
... Ebola scare in Uganda
A family's transport of a Ugandan man who died on Feb 8 in the DRC's outbreak region across the border and back into Uganda sparked intensive contact tracing, location of the body, and sample testing, according to a statement yesterday from the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office.

The 46-year-old man was a construction worker who had been living and working the DRC for the past 8 years. He was first admitted to the hospital in Bunia, one of the towns in Ituri province that has reported Ebola cases, in November 2018 with symptoms that included chest pain and a sometimes-bloody cough.

Over the past week his condition worsened and he died at Bunia Hospital, where staff issued a death certificate and released his body to relatives, which included a group of 13 people from Tororo in Uganda. The group used the death certificate to cross the border and other checkpoints with the body. According to the statement, the death certificate said the man's cause of death was cardiac failure and pulmonary tuberculosis.

After learning of the incident, Uganda's health ministry—with support from the WHO—intercepted the man's relatives and the vehicle with the dead body in it before they reached their village in Tororo district. A ministry burial team and surveillance officer took oral swabs, conducted a verbal autopsy, and made plans to conduct a safe and dignified burial....MORE
Previously:
Dec. 14
Catastrophe Bonds: "Ebola deaths pass pandemic cat bond trigger, but no payout till it spreads"
Nov. 29
Congo's Ebola Crisis May Trigger World Bank's Catastrophe Bond 
Oct. 2017
"The Unforgiving Math That Stops Epidemics"

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Complex Systems: How the Internet Grows, How Viruses Spread, and How Financial Bubbles Burst