10-year yield 2.6240% up 0.0430.
From All Star Charts:
One of my favorite themes coming into the new year was how the market would react to lower interest rates. I couldn’t think of a single person who didn’t “know” that rates were heading higher. It was just assumed that we were in a higher interest rate environment. Extremes like this in sentiment make the best trades.
Now that we’re in February and interest rates have gotten crushed as bonds exploded higher, we hear and read about how unexpected this was. This is the common reaction to an unwind in extreme sentiment. Readers here know we were all over this trade (see here here here & here) but there seems to still more coming. I really don’t think this drop in rates is over.
These unwinds in sentiment can last longer and take prices further than most expect. In fact, I often see these unwinds ignore what would traditionally serve as reliable support and resistance levels. Sentiment can be that powerful when the masses are on completely the wrong side of the trade, which is precisely what we had here.
But let’s put that aside for a minute. Price, at the end of the day is the only thing that pays us. Extreme sentiment unwind or not, price still rules in our world. So here is the weekly chart that we were first pointing to when we caught the bond bears napping.
Every time rates get up to this down trend line they seem to roll over pretty hard. In fact, every time rates have hit this level, on average they get cut in half. I’m not predicting that this will absolutely occur once again, but a 10yr yield back down to 1.5% would be perfectly normal....MORESee also Jan. 21's:
Chartology: Yields Lower, Then Higher (in line With DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach)
He is calling for an initial move to 2.5% on the 10 year but doesn't forecast the subsequent upmove.
