On Bull Markets, Secular and Observant

I don't know that we'll see the 7 P/E the market traded at in the early 'eighties but I am looking for one more opportunity to get massively short before we have an honest-to-goodness secular bull.
From StreetTalkLive:
The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away 

There have been several articles as of late discussing that the next great secular bull market has arrived.  Historically, secular bear markets have averaged about 14 years, and considering that we began writing about the current secular bear market cycle in early 2000, that would put the current cycle about 2 years away from it historic average.  However, the reality is that this cycle is currently unlike anything that we have potentially witnessed in the past.  With massive central bank interventions, artificially suppressed interest rates, sub-par economic growth, high unemployment and elevated stock market prices it is likely that the current secular bear market may be longer than the historical average.  In either event we are likely closer to the end than the beginning and the next major stock market correction will likely be the last for this cycle.

There are several fundamental reasons from valuations to the current level of interest rates that support this viewpoint.  The first chart shows the inflation adjusted, or “real”, ratio of the stock market to the economy as measured by GDP. With the economic recovery, such as it is, currently in its fourth year, the market to GDP ratio is beginning to push levels that are normally consistent with cyclical bull market peaks rather than where secular bear markets have ended.

Furthermore, secular bull markets do not begin when prices are already stretched well above their long term growth trend. I often use the “rubber ball” analogy to express the movement of prices relative to their trends. Like throwing a rubber ball into the air – the momentum of the throw can make it seem like it is temporarily defying the laws of gravity. However, the effect of momentum will fade as the pull from gravity increases on the ball until it reaches its maximum height. The ball will then quickly revert back to earth. The same goes for the financial markets.

The chart below shows, very importantly, that secular BULL markets do not begin when prices are already trading well above their long term growth trend....MORE 

HT: The Big Picture