Monday, February 25, 2013

What the Heck Does This Imply: Cash VIX Settles Higher Than Futures in Contango? (VIX; VXX)

Like the writer, I can't recall ever seeing this.
From Options Pit:

VIX Settling Higher Than 6 Futures
It is news when the VIX cash settles at a level that is higher than the VIX futures.  I think it is an even bigger deal when the VIX settles above 6 futures contracts like it did today (almost 7, actually).  Yet, there was something that was also interesting about today, the movement in the VIX futures themselves.  While the futures certainly reacted to the news,  the entire curve really didn't flatten up very much.


In fact, I cannot remember the last time I saw VIX cash trading higher than 6 months of futures while the curve was this flat/in contango.  I am not sure what to make of it.  Here is what I do know:
1.  Today was a total 'vol race', as traders were trying to buy every piece of premium they could get.
2.  This had NOTHING to do with Sequestration, or the Fed and everything to do with the Italian Elections......MORE
If that is the case, then I was right for the wrong reason.
But (and that's a big 'ol but) I won't concede the point just yet.
See also: attribution error:
...The Attribution Error says that when others screw up, we blame it on them, but when we screw up, we blame the situation and circumstances....