Thursday, February 21, 2013

Robots in the Natural Gas Market Don't Know What to Do With EIA Release

Front futures $3.28 up 1.2 cents.
I think somebody's algo got spoofed but a picture is worth at least 250 words:


From the EIA:
Working gas in storage was 2,400 Bcf as of Friday, February 15, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 127 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 242 Bcf less than last year at this time and 361 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,039 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 102 Bcf above the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 79 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 188 Bcf above the 5-year average of 737 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 35 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 71 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 13 Bcf. At 2,400 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range....MORE
And from Reuters:

UPDATE 2-US natural gas futures near flat after EIA stocks data

 Storage draw beats expectations, first time in 4 weeks
    * Coal switching, nuclear plant outages lend some support
    * Extended outlook for cold weather also limits downside
    * High inventories, record production keep buyers cautious
    * Coming up: Baker Hughes rig data, CFTC trade data Friday

    By Joe Silha
    NEW YORK, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas
futures were trading nearly flat on Thursday after some early
selling as slightly supportive weekly inventory data offset
morning profit-taking seen ahead of the report and after two
straight days of gains.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed
total domestic gas inventories fell last week by 127 billion
cubic feet to 2.400 trillion cubic feet. 
    Most traders viewed the decline as slightly supportive for
futures prices, noting it was the first time in four weeks that
the draw came in above expectations. A Reuters poll on Wednesday
showed traders and analysts had expected a 122 bcf drop....

Even that Thompson/Reuters number is high. Platts was at 117 to 121 Bcf. 
Three months ago you'd have seen a 10 cent up-move. Now as in Sherlock Holmes' "Silver Blaze" adventure:
Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."