Some eye-opening tidbits.
"The EIA estimates are far below those of the U.S. Geological Survey,
which calculates that the South China Sea may contain roughly 28 billion
barrels of oil, even as the Chinese government calculates that the
South China Sea region contains nearly 200 billion barrels of oil...."
From the Energy Information Administration, Feb. 7, 2013:
Overview
The South China Sea is a critical world trade route
and a potential source of hydrocarbons, particularly natural gas, with
competing claims of ownership over the sea and its resources.
Stretching from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca in the
southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast, the South China Sea
is one the most important trade routes in the world. The sea is rich in
resources and holds significant strategic and political importance.
The area includes several hundred small islands, rocks, and reefs,
with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. Many
of these islands are partially submerged land masses unsuitable for
habitation and are little more than shipping hazards. For example, the
total land area of the Spratly Islands encompasses less than 3 square
miles.
Several of the countries bordering the sea declare ownership of the
islands to claim the surrounding sea and its resources. The Gulf of
Thailand borders the South China Sea, and although technically not part
of it, disputes surround ownership of that Gulf and its resources as
well.
Asia's robust economic growth boosts demand for energy in the
region. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects total
liquid fuels consumption in Asian countries outside the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to rise at an annual growth
rate of 2.6 percent, growing from around 20 percent of world
consumption in 2008 to over 30 percent of world consumption by 2035.
Similarly, non-OECD Asia natural gas consumption grows by 3.9 percent
annually, from 10 percent of world gas consumption in 2008 to 19 percent
by 2035. EIA expects
China to account for 43 percent of that growth.
With Southeast Asian domestic oil production projected to stay flat
or decline as consumption rises, the region's countries will look to
new sources of energy to meet domestic demand. China in particular
promotes the use of natural gas as a preferred energy source and set an
ambitious target of increasing the share of natural gas in its energy
mix from 3 percent to 10 percent by 2020. The South China Sea offers the
potential for significant natural gas discoveries, creating an
incentive to secure larger parts of the area for domestic production.
Reserves and resources
EIA estimates the South China Sea contains
approximately 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas in proved and probable reserves. Conventional hydrocarbons
mostly reside in undisputed territory.
It is difficult to determine the amount of oil and natural gas in the
South China Sea because of under-exploration and territorial disputes.
Most current discovered fields cluster in uncontested parts of the sea,
close to the shorelines of the coastal countries. EIA estimates there to
be approximately 11 billion barrels (bbl) of oil reserves and 190
trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves in the South China
Sea. These numbers represent both proved and probable reserves, making
them closer to a high-end estimate. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie,
for example, estimates the sea to contain only 2.5 billion barrels of
oil equivalent in proved oil and gas reserves....
MORE
Contested territory
Spratly Islands
EIA estimates the region around the Spratly Islands to have
virtually no proved or probable oil reserves. Industry sources suggest
less than 100 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in currently economically viable
natural gas reserves exist in surrounding fields. However, the Spratly
Island territory may contain significant deposits of undiscovered
hydrocarbons. USGS assessments estimate anywhere between 0.8 and 5.4
(mean 2.5) billion barrels of oil and between 7.6 and 55.1 (mean 25.5)
Tcf of natural gas in undiscovered resources.
Evidence suggests that most of these resources are likely located
in the contested Reed Bank at the northeast end of the Spratlys, which
is claimed by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The Philippines began
exploring the area in 1970 and discovered natural gas in 1976.
U.S.-based Sterling Energy won the concession in 2002, and U.K.-based
Forum Energy acquired the concession in 2005 and became its operator.
However, Chinese objections halted further development, and the
concession remains undeveloped.....
