Thursday, February 7, 2013

Natural Gas at Risk of a Fall Below $3.00

The front futures are down 13 cents at $3.29. Look at the FinViz chart below the jump, it looks weak.
In futures the gap from September isn't as attractive as it would be with an equity (the chart is constant front future so the jump up was Sept. expiration into the Octobers) but is still a reasonable target.

From Reuters:

* High inventories, record production weigh on prices
    * Warm up next week also keeps buyers cautious
    * Cold extended weather forecasts limit downside
    * Coming up: Baker Hughes rig data, CFTC trade data Friday


    By Joe Silha
    NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Front-month U.S. natural gas
futures fell on heels of a bearish weekly inventory report on
Thursday, but colder weather expected during the second half of
the month was likely to again drive up gas use to heat homes and
businesses.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed
total domestic gas inventories fell last week by 118 billion
cubic feet to 2.684 trillion cubic feet.      
    Most traders viewed the decline as negative for futures
since it came well below the Reuters poll estimate of 132 bcf,
falling short of expectations for the second straight week.
    But despite the pullback, most traders see only limited
downside with heating demand expected to ramp up when another
blast of cold air moves into the Midwest late next week and then
spreads east, blanketing much of the nation.
    "The (EIA storage) withdrawal was near the bottom of the
range of expectations and implies some further easing in the
background supply/demand balance. We'd expect the downside price
reaction to prove limited, however, as colder temperatures in
the 11-15 day forecast still promise stronger demand," Citi
Futures energy analyst Tim Evans said in a report....


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