Monday, February 13, 2012

As Death Toll Passes 500, When Will Europe Warm Up?

The U.S. enjoyed its fourth warmest January in the last 117 years as the freeze descended on Europe, with some areas of the high plains running 10°F above the 30-year average.

That began to change in the last week as a second "gate" opened to release some of the Godawful cold over the North American Arctic.
Fairbanks has warmed to the 20°F range from the -51° of a couple weeks ago as warmer air rushed in to replace the cold heading south.

Here are the ensemble model runs for the Arctic Oscillation:

It appears the index will return to the positive range this week with warming kicking in with a seven-or-so day lag.
Sell your Gazprom.

Jan. 9 2012
Dear Europe: Arctic Oscillation About to Go Negative, Try to Stay Warm
January 30, 2012
Brrrr: Arctic Oscillation Goes Deeply Negative, Here Comes Winter
January 31 2012
Bitter cold in Alaska and Europe Although Alaska's -79°F Reading is Bogus