Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Time for Oil Prices to Roll Over (APC; NBL)

U.S. crude futures up $2.26 at $105.50, Brent up $1.15 at $121.20.
Both Anadarko and Noble closed down on the day although NBL is up a bit after hours.
Here are a couple charts from Market Anthropology at the close yesterday:

the Visible Hand
As noted this morning, the ECB halted their bond buying program for the first time since early August. In many ways this dovetails into my last note of the declining influence of momentum pressures upon price. 

What it interesting with the market environment today, is the overlap of monetary interventions, both blatant and discrete - between the ECB and the Fed. 

And from TheStreet:
...Crude oil continued up on Tuesday, too, but how much more room does it have to run, even with Iran stoking geopolitical tensions and crude oil supply fears?

Indeed, even as crude oil continues to run up, the Anadarko downgrade from JPMorgan and its 3% dip on Tuesday suggests that investors that have benefited from the rally in energy stocks to start the year might want to consider trimming their holdings and booking some profits.

The extended rally in crude, even with Iran a clear and present danger, isn't far from becoming aself-fulfilling prophecy of global recession: remember 2008 and $140 oil?

"It's hard to see buys on lots of E&Ps right now," said Weiss. "The fundamentals are pretty good but how much better can they get?" 
-from In Anadarko Decline, a Possible Oil Rally Tipping Point