Tuesday, February 28, 2012

"USDA warns of corn prices falling back below $5"

If that happens every farmland mortgage approved in the last year goes underwater. Throw in diesel at six bucks and there could be some real problems.
From Agrimoney:
US farm officials signalled expectations that corn prices will return below $5 a bushel as they forecast a doubling in domestic inventories of the grain, boosted by a record harvest.
The US Department of Agriculture, updating outline estimates unveiled last week, forecast the US corn crop soaring 15% to top 14bn bushels for the first time this year, backed by growth in yields as well as sowings.
 Consumption will hit a record high too, supported by expansion at US pork and poultry farms, by growing exports, and the end of a long-term decline in the use of corn-based sweeteners by domestic drinks groups.
Even so, the harvest will cover use with some 800m bushels to spare, allowing a "sharp recovery" in inventories.
Stocks will end 2012-13 at 1.62m bushels, more than doubling year on year, and ending a two-season spell when historically low inventories have supported prices.
'Sharply lower prices'
Indeed, the recovery in supplies will put "substantial downward pressure on futures and cash corn prices" in 2012-13, with values set to drop "sharply lower by fall harvest"....MORE