Monday, February 13, 2012

"George Soros’ 8 Bold Predictions From the ‘Tiger Den’"

Originally posted Feb. 12.
From Advisor One:
At TIGER 21 event, Soros was asked for his predictions on everything from Jon Corzine going to jail to Obama's re-election chances

The wealthy investors who make up the peer-to-peer learning group TIGER 21 like to invite heavy hitters, such as Mohammed El-Erian, Carl Icahn and Jim Rogers, to their Headliner Lunches. In December, George Soros joined that illustrious roster, according to a statement from the group released Wednesday.

In an interview with Robert Johnson, executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Soros discussed the economy and issues affecting investments and world markets, and reacted to some members’ predictions for the year ahead.

Soros said the current economic environment “is about as serious and difficult an environment as I have experienced in my career.” The current financial crisis is a direct outgrowth of the financial crisis of 2008, he said. “In 2008, when Lehman went bankrupt, the financial system did collapse. The week between Lehman filing and the announcement of TARP were memorable days where one market after another ceased to function."

Now the viability of sovereign debt is in question, he said. In Europe, flaws in the euro’s construction are being exposed. However, he pointed out, the euro crisis is not a currency crisis, but rather a banking crisis.
Soros emphasized that the current crisis is more severe and more lasting than the crisis in 2008. At that time, the institutions that were needed to control the situation existed, whereas in Europe today, there is a central bank but no treasury.

“When the euro was introduced, everyone knew that the treasury was missing, but there was no political will to have a fiscal union,” he said. “The leaders thought that when the time came they would have the political will to put it in place. However, there is less political will today than there was in the 1990s.”

Lacking a solution, he said, authorities are trying to buy time, but this is not working because the crisis keeps growing. “The authorities are doing what it takes to keep things together, but never more. So you actually need a continuing crisis to make what is politically impossible, possible.”

Soros also engaged in a round of “Agree or Disagree,” commenting on predictions for 2012 proffered by individual TIGER 21 members. He was asked to indicate whether he agreed with the predictions or might reject them outright. Among the eight predictions:

1)  That one or more countries will leave the eurozone within the year.
While he did not fully agree, he said it was not very far from impossible. However, in the case of Greece, default is more than a 50% probability. [On Thursday, Greece struck a deal to clear the way for a possible bailout.]

2)  Collapse of the Chinese market.
Soros rejected this idea, but noted that the country’s housing bubble has been pricked, partly as a result of the effects of the financial crisis here spreading to China....