Wednesday, November 2, 2011

"Don't be too eager to get bearish" (DIA; SPX; SPY)

We haven't checked in with HSotM for a while.
From Humble Student of the Markets:

While the stock selloff in the last two days has been breathtaking, (just as the rally last week was breathtaking), even if you are bearish, I wouldn't be too eager to commit to a bearish trade here. There are just too many bullish triggers over the next few days that could rip the face off anyone positioned to the short side.

First of all, the market just kissed the 50% retracement support level as shown by the chart below.

Another short-term bullish data point came from Marty Chenard at He showed that, as of Monday night, institutional investors haven't panicked and the positive momentum seen last week appears to be intact.

The Greek referendum a domestic power play?
The news of the Greek referendum called by prime minister Papandreou caught investors by surprise yesterday and the markets sold off. Upon closer examination, the referendum story just didn't make sense. He caught his own cabinet by surprise with the news and even his own finance minister wasn't briefed on the plan. Joseph Cotterill of FT Alphaville wrote that it wasn't clear that Papandreou may not have had the votes to pass the referendum bill in parliament. Moreover, the Greek constitution specifically prohibits referendums on fiscal matters. So what would the referendum question be?...MUCH MORE
HT: The Reformed Broker