Tuesday, November 22, 2011

UBS: Europe's Carbon Trading Scheme Has Cost Consumers $287 Billion for Almost Zero Impact--Predicts Collapse of Carbon Price

Thank God the U.S. didn't go the European route.
For the first couple years of this blog I attempted to explain what I knew from 20 years studying the science, politics, economics and finance of global warming.
After reading some 120,000 pages of the stuff I am convinced that cap-and-trade would be an economic disaster with the added bonus of concentrating even more power in the hands of the Goldman Sachs' of the world and setting up (thank you Blythe Masters*) another derivatives disaster.
If you're going to apply economics to climate go with a straight tax and 100% rebate of the proceeds and/or use the proceeds to fund a reduction in the payroll tax.
Anything else is either ripe for corruption and gaming or concentrates power in the hands of definitely non-omniscient bureaucrats.
Here's the headline story from The Australian:
Europe's $287bn carbon 'waste': UBS report 
SWISS banking giant UBS says the European Union's emissions trading scheme has cost the continent's consumers $287 billion for "almost zero impact" on cutting carbon emissions, and has warned that the EU's carbon pricing market is on the verge of a crash next year.

In a damning report to clients, UBS Investment Research said that had the €210bn the European ETS had cost consumers been used in a targeted approach to replace the EU's dirtiest power plants, emissions could have been reduced by 43 per cent "instead of almost zero impact on the back of emissions trading"....MORE
Here's Reuters:
UBS analysts predict "collapse" in EU CO2 permits
European Union carbon permits, which have shed more than 40 percent since June, could plunge further as the bloc struggles with a mounting debt crisis and a glut of supply in the carbon market is unlikely to disappear until 2025, analysts said.
Analysts at investment bank UBS and Austria's Verbund.

Benchmark EU CO2 permits fell more than 4 percent to a fresh 33-month low of 9.23 early on Friday. By 1235 GMT, prices were at 9.45 euros.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank lowered its price forecasts for 2011 EU Allowances to 9 euros a tonne from a prior estimate of 12 euros, and permits for 2012 delivery to 12 euros at tonne from 15 euros, analysts said in a statement late on Thursday....MORE
And from the Business Spectator:
UBS slams EU carbon scheme: report
...If the millions consumers have spent as a result of the carbon pricing scheme had instead been directly spent on replacing Europe's dirtiest power plants, the region could have achieved a 43 per cent reduction in emissions, UBS said. 
The UBS report, which said Europe's emissions trading scheme had “limited benefits and embarrassing consequences”, was cited by Australian opposition members, who said it undercut the Gillard government's plans for a carbon pricing system....
There's a reason that as early as 2007 we said the carbonistas should get down on their knees every night to thank the German hausfraus who paid the tab.

*Previously on Blythe:
"Woman Who Invented Credit Default Swaps is One of the Key Architects of Carbon Derivatives, Which Would Be at the Very CENTER of Cap and Trade

Brilliant: Maxwell's SILVER Hammer Came Down on Blythe Masters' Head (SLV; JPM)