Wednesday, November 30, 2011

On the Importance of Detached Awareness While Trading Equities: Pay Attention or Pay the Offer (FSLR)

That's a long headline for a short bit of gloating.
Around 1:00 last Wednesday with the general market down for the day at around 11,300 one of our alarms went off as spec name and former high-flyer First Solar levitated. That prompted a post:

Saaay, One of Our Coal Mine Canaries Wasn't Dead After All and Appears to Be Trying to Get to its Feet (FSLR)
One of the things I do unconsciously [we'll pass on that high hanging curve ball -ed] is note the action in the more speculative names versus those at the ultramarine end of the spectrum.

Today First Solar was up a couple bucks while the DJIA was down 200.

This isn't nearly as foolproof as our 'What's on TV Timing Model' (backtested to August) but has shown some skill in forecasting the overall market with a 1 to 5 day lead time.

Fairly wide error bars so your mileage may vary etc, but for what it's worth here's today's action...
Since that post here's how the DJIA has performed (Wed, Fri, Mon-Wed):


Cool huh?

Of course I have the advantage of a deepley suspicious nature, having posted after the close on Tuesday 22nd::
...So when the talking heads started babbling about the supercommittee failure as a proximate cause of yesterday's market decline I started giggling.
And wondered who was on the other side of the seller-initiated transactions.

[it was a manly giggle -ed]
I think that was the fithe down day out of six or somesuch.
Here's the 10-day picture: