Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Climateer Line of the Day: Société Générale's Albert Edwards Edition

...Estimates for a "soft landing" in China are another 
"pyramid of piffle..."

This marks the second time Mr. Edwards has taken home the prestigious CLoD which makes him our only two-time winner, akin I think, to Marie Curie winning the Nobel prize in both physics and chemistry.
[sheesh- yesterday was the 144th anniversary of Madame Curie's birth and he's been looking for a way to mention her -ed]

The Edwards quote is from the Bloomberg piece:
China Frauds May Fit Panics, Crashes Model, SocGen’s Grice Says
Growing evidence of corporate fraud and corruption on infrastructure projects signals that a crisis is looming in China, if history is any guide, according to Dylan Grice, a global strategist at Societe Generale SA.
China is displaying all the signs of the typical financial crisis laid out in economist Charles Kindleberger’s history of manias, panics and crashes, London-based Grice said in a research note dated Nov. 4.

Recent developments in China have been in line with Kindleberger’s five-stage model of a financial crisis, based on the work of Hyman Minsky, Grice said. Those include revelations of fraud, “aggressive and sudden credit expansion,” and “the pervasive feeling that ‘China is different,’" he said.

Grice has long been bearish on China, saying in November last year that the economy would have a ‘‘hard landing’’ in 12 months to 18 months followed by deflation. Estimates for a ‘‘soft landing’’ in China are another ‘‘pyramid of piffle,’’ his colleague Albert Edwards wrote in an Oct. 20 note....MORE