Monday, November 14, 2011

"Are Hedge Funds Using VIX Calls to Bet on a Year-End Rally?" (VXX; VIX; TVIX)

More accurately, are they betting on a year end bonus?
Perhaps they are hedging by betting on volatility to lower the semi-variance of their lives?
I knew a fellow who did just that, figuring that he had enough market exposure just by being in the business so every bonus went into annuities.
From Schaeffer's Investment Research:
We are noticing increased call buying relative to put buying on CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX - 31.44) options, after a long period in which put buying predominated and the market fell sharply. The change in the ratio's direction suggests that market movers, such as hedge fund managers, could be using VIX calls to hedge stocks they are accumulating. Note in the chart below that when the VIX's buy-to-open call/put ratio turned higher from extremely low levels at this time last year -- just as it is doing now -- the market rallied significantly.

VIX 20-day BTO call-put volume ratio since 2009