My best guesstimate is that the downtrend over the last few weeks is a shakeout fakeout. The declines in short interest last month* means there is less buying power from short-covering, which would mean faster and deeper down-moves. These scary down-moves should set up a final run up, with fear of loss reverting to the fear of not participating that we saw in August and mid September.
From Money Morning Australia:
The index lost 2% yesterday (early morning today for Australian time zone) and closed at 9,509.28 points. The recent high has been posted at 9,918 points last week (point F). The current level is 4.12% lower than this peak.
The weekly chart suggests a further correction. First, the recent price action failed to breakout above a resistance line (horizontal blue line) that was previously a support line. Let’s see this in details. The initial point was a high posted at 9,903 points in November 2003 (point A). Several months later, in 2004, the level around 9,900 points was a support area where several bounced were generated (points B, C and D).MORE
*Here are some of the short-interest headlines from September: