Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Emissions Cut to Cost 3% of Global GDP, Pachauri Says

All I ask is that we have an accurate estimate of the numbers.
I've been accused of focusing on the negative in markets or individual stocks. This brings to mind a line from a very sharp and very brave assistant some years ago as she laid out the facts of, and possible reactions to, a very large potential problem: "Would you prefer to have the facts or not?"

Well if you put it that way...

Back in June of '08 we had a post "Sir Nicholas Stern: Cost of Carbon Biz Has Doubled to 2% of World Economy":

No it hasn't.
Sir Nick was low balling the cost of his proposals last year.
On May 31, 2007 we wrote:

...we're starting to get to the real number and we should be able to keep it all under a third-of-a-trillion dollars per year for the U.S. contribution (before adding in direct costs like putting vodka in your tank but that's okay, the Stern number of 1% of World Gross Product should be 2% minimum so we've got incorrect estimates piling on incorrect estimates anyway).

I don't know why he was having fun with numbers but he was. If a humble blogger can work the abacus I'm pretty sure Stern knew.
If he didn't, here's a headline from the Times of India, September 25, 2007:
Cost of dealing with climate change: 2% of GDP

...This was disclosed on Thursday by Jayant M Mau-skar, joint secretary in the environment ministry, at a conference on climate change organised at the Vatavaran Film Festival here. Mauskar said, "In 2000-01, India was spending 0.63% of its GDP on climate change adaptation and mitigation which has now risen to 2.17%. So we can say that Nicholas Stern's argument (that climate change action does not hurt economy much) is perhaps not true."

The actual dollar amount for the U.S. now looks to be $400-500 Billion per year....
Here's the latest via Bloomberg:
The cost of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the impact of climate change may amount to 3 percent of the world’s economic output, said Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

“The cost to the global economy in 2030, so that’s 21 years from now, will be no more than 3 percent of the global GDP,” he told the CarbonExpo Australasia conference on the Gold Coast, Australia today via video link....MORE

Although he is often referred to as a climatologist Mr.* Pachuri's doctorate is a joint Econ/Industrial Engineering degree from NC State.

Lord Stern is vice-chair of the parent of carbon consultancy, IDEACarbon.

*On my mom's side of the fam. are a couple M.D's. One of them was a firm believer that if you couldn't set a kid's broken arm she wouldn't use the honorific, Doctor. Her locution was "Mr. (Mrs.) Blank Blank, PhD.

The other one was more liberal, she'd acknowledge the doctorate if she liked your jokes.

Tough old birds.

They'd both call Lord Stern "Lord" though.