From the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, August 13:
A different presentation this week, showing change in classification. The yellow and a small patch of orange in Oklahoma are areas of concern. The experimental Drought Severity and Coverage Index (DSCI) was up for the third consecutive week, from 159 to 165 on a 500-is-bone-dry-from-coast-to-coast scale.
Week | None | D0-D4 | D1-D4 | D2-D4 | D3-D4 | D4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 26.38 | 73.62 | 50.38 | 29.50 | 10.27 | 1.04 | 165 |
| 2026-08-04 | 29.05 | 70.95 | 48.54 | 28.57 | 9.51 | 0.95 | 159 |
| 2026-07-28 | 32.08 | 67.92 | 47.89 | 28.30 | 10.00 | 0.86 | 155 |
| 2026-07-21 | 34.76 | 65.24 | 45.77 | 29.14 | 10.71 | 0.93 | 152 |
From Kansas Wheat (the state wheat commission + the growers association), what's what in wheat:
Which Wheat for What?
So far this year the action in Chicago SRW wheat (ZW) has been driven by the wars in Iran (fertilizer - fuel; Feb. - May) and in Ukraine, rather than U.S. weather with the latest upticks occurring after heavy Ukrainian attacks in the Black Sea:
Ukrainian drone strikes halt Novorossiysk grain terminals, sparking wheat futures rally
- Chicago SRW wheat (ZW) surged 3.61% to 653.00 as of Aug 12, 2026, erasing prior losses.
- Overnight Ukrainian drone and missile attacks targeted Russia's Novorossiysk port, halting operations at two major grain terminals.
- Novorossiysk is a primary Black Sea export hub; Russia is the world's top wheat exporter with most shipments via these ports.
- Analysts expect Russian August wheat shipments at decade lows; IKAR cut 2026/27 export forecast to 44.5M tonnes.
- Ukraine lowered its 2026/27 grain export outlook by up to 12%; Turkey suspended Black Sea vessel transits over security risks.
- USDA's August WASDE (released same day) showed tight US stocks at 717M bu for 2026/27 with steady production at ~1.53B bu amid Northern Plains dryness.
- Global supply concerns from EU heat/drought, Russian harvest/shipping issues, and Black Sea disruptions amplified the move.
