"Singapore bank stocks battered with STI down 8.1% at midday, HK sinks 10.7% in Asia market rout"

As noted in the intro to News You Can Use: "Using Machine Learning to Measure CEO Depression": 

With earnings season kicking off we have a natural experiment before us. And we will be paying particular attention to the bankers....

Banks, especially international banks, are among the greatest beneficiaries of globalization and are at risk from any changes that they haven't shaped and molded. JPMorgan's earnings call is scheduled for Friday, April 11, 2025 as is Wells Fargo's. Bank of America reports on April 15.

And the headline story from Singapore's The Straits Times, April 7:

SINGAPORE - Asian markets extended a global stock rout on April 7 and Wall Street futures sank as US President Donald Trump’s refused to roll back global tariffs that could push the world into a recession.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) plunged 8.57 per cent, or 328.20 points, to 3,497.66 when trading opened.

The drop marked the the blue-chip index’s largest intraday loss since the 8.9 per cent plunge during the global financial crisis on Oct 24, 2008, and exceeded the 8.4 per cent fall seen during the Covid-19 sell-off on March 23, 2020.

After trying to claw back losses, the STI was down 8.1 per cent, or 310.64 points, at the midday trading break.

“The STI has experienced sharp single-day declines in past periods of global uncertainty, including a 7.4 per cent drop in March 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic and an 8.3 per cent fall in October 2008 during the global financial crisis,” said Mr David Gerald, founder, president and chief executive of Securities Investors Association (Singapore), or Sias.

“According to experts, if tariffs are sustained, they could contribute to higher inflation and slower global growth, which may in turn trigger further volatility and potential sell-offs in markets globally, including Singapore,” he said.

Mr S Nallakaruppan, president of the Society of Remisiers (Singapore), said although the sell-off on STI is steep, there is less panic this time compared with previous episodes such as Covid-19 in March 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008.

Investors have seen the market plunge and rebound many times, and are “more savvy” now, he said, adding that the panic selling this morning might have more to do with algorithmic trading.

Bank stocks were among the biggest losers in key equity benchmarks across Asia on expectations that aggressive rate cuts by central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, in response to a recession would weigh on banks’ earnings.

In Singapore at midday, DBS shares were down 9.2 per cent to $39.02, while UOB fell 6.1 per cent to $33.29 and OCBC lost 7.6 per cent to $15.35.

Hong Kong-listed shares of HSBC tumbled 13.9 per cent while Standard Chartered sank 16.7 per cent.

Hong Kong‘s Hang Seng Index led losses in Asia, diving 10.7 per cent - which, if sustained, would make its biggest one-day fall since the 2008 global financial crisis.

China, which is facing US tariffs of 54 per cent, saw its Shanghai Composite index drop 6.34 per cent....

....MUCH MORE

 Also at the Straits Times:

Singapore may bring forward monetary easing amid growth scare from Trump’s tariffs

Because the Straits Times assumes a high level of financial sophistication among their audience they drop little nuggets and figure their readers will pick up on them without highlighting and arrows and little rocket ships in the margins and...well here:

....MAS [Monetary Authority of Singapore] uses S$Neer as its main monetary policy tool to contain imported inflation because Singapore imports almost everything it consumes. 

Deflationary shock
The move may also help MAS get ahead of another risk that can make things even worse.

If Mr Trump’s harshest levies, dubbed reciprocal tariffs, on major economies such as China, Japan, South Korea and the European Union are not negotiated away by April 9 – when they take effect – their exporters will tumble over one another to sell goods their factories churn out every day, even at a loss. 

This makes the global economy ripe for a massive deflationary shock – a sudden and significant decrease in general price levels, leading to lower production, lower wages, and lower demand from businesses and consumers....

This fear of exporters dumping into any market they can, just to move inventory and free up capital is something that E.C. President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned in her April 2 communiqué:

We will also be watching closely what indirect effects these tariffs could have, because we cannot absorb global overcapacity nor will we accept dumping on our market

She also said "I agree with President Trump, that others are taking unfair advantage of the current rules." without addressing any gaming of the system by various European entities.

"Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunges nearly 11%, mainland’s China CSI 300 slumps over 6% on trade war worries"

From CNBC, April 6, 11:55pm EDT:

Asia-Pacific markets extended their sell-off Monday as fears over a global trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs fueled a risk-off mood.

Hong Kong markets led losses in the region, with the Hang Seng Index declining 10.37%. Meanwhile, mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 6.31%.

Over in Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 6.39% to hit an 18-month low while the broader Topix index plummeted 6.50%. Earlier in the day, trading in Japanese futures was suspended due the market hitting circuit breakers.

In South Korea, the Kospi index was last down 4.74%, while the small-cap Kosdaq declined 4.01%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200

extended losses to 3.87%. The benchmark slid into correction territory with an 11% decline since its last high in February, in its previous session.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 dropped 3.85% at the open while the broader BSE Sensex declined 5.29%....

....MUCH MORE

"Dow Futures Sink 1,000+ Points. S&P 500 Set to Open in a Bear Market."

From Barron's, April 6:

Updated April 06, 2025, 7:08 pm EDT / Original April 06, 2025, 6:24 pm EDT 

Stock futures were plunging again Sunday evening, continuing a steep selloff that began after President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs.

Just after 6 p.m. EST on Sunday, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down more than 1,700 points, or 4.4%; S&P 500 futures were down 5%; and Nasdaq Composite futures fell 5.3%.

A selloff at the market open in New York on Monday would extend two consecutive days of steep declines that have erased $6 trillion in stock market value.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3,269 points, or 7.9% last week, to 38,315. The S&P 500 dropped 9.1% last week, to 5074, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 10% to 15588.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% below its December record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 2,231 points, down 5.5%, after China said it would retaliate against the U.S. with 34% tariffs of its own....

....MUCH MORE

DJIA futures down 1640 (-4.26%) S&P 500 down 241.75 (-4.73%)

Stocks go up and stocks go down and if you can't sleep at night because you are worrying about your net worth, you are betting far more of your bankroll than you should be.

And to contextualize April 5's "Warren Buffett defended his massive $300 billion cash pile in February. Now he doesn't have to." (BRK), Mr. Buffett wasn't selling 60% of Berkshire's Apple position (or whatever the exact number is) and building one of the largest cash positions outside of the central bank realm because of the tariffs but because he thought stocks were pricey and he couldn't find anything worth buying i.e. the market was too expensive. Stocks were expensive and now they are less so.

Here's a repost from June 7, 2008, almost exactly three months before all hell broke loose that may give one some comfort (and for the curious, we were as on top of that unpleasantness as anyone):

Okay, the Dow Jones Industrials are Down 428 Points in the First Five Days of June. Now What?

Well, the retail guys have their lips on autopilot: "And Mr. Big, if you annualize that...", but I suppose that sounds better on the upside.

Grandmother would say something like "If the initial condition given is 'The sky is falling', your course of action would be to short sky, try the eggplant"

Unplanned Freefall? Some Survival Tips
By David Carkeet

Admit it: You want to be the sole survivor of an airline disaster. You aren't looking for a disaster to happen, but if it does, you see yourself coming through it. I'm here to tell you that you're not out of touch with reality—you can do it. Sure, you'll take a few hits, and I'm not saying there won't be some sweaty flashbacks later on, but you'll make it. You'll sit up in your hospital bed and meet the press. Refreshingly, you will keep God out of your public comments, knowing that it's unfair to sing His praises when all of your dead fellow-passengers have no platform from which to offer an alternative view.

Let's say your jet blows apart at 35,000 feet. You exit the aircraft, and you begin to descend independently. Now what?

First of all, you're starting off a full mile higher than Everest, so after a few gulps of disappointing air you're going to black out. This is not a bad thing. If you have ever tried to keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, you know what I mean. This brief respite from the ambient fear and chaos will come to an end when you wake up at about 15,000 feet. Here begins the final phase of your descent, which will last about a minute. It is a time of planning and preparation. Look around you. What equipment is available? None? Are you sure? Look carefully. Perhaps a shipment of packed parachutes was in the cargo hold, and the blast opened the box and scattered them. One of these just might be within reach. Grab it, put it on, and hit the silk. You're sitting pretty.

Other items can be helpful as well. Let nature be your guide. See how yon maple seed gently wafts to earth on gossamer wings. Look around for a proportionate personal vehicle—some large, flat, aerodynamically suitable piece of wreckage. Mount it and ride, cowboy! Remember: molecules are your friends. You want a bunch of surface-area molecules hitting a bunch of atmospheric molecules in order to reduce your rate of acceleration.

As you fall, you're going to realize that your previous visualization of this experience has been off the mark. You have seen yourself as a loose, free body, and you've imagined yourself in the belly-down, limbs-out position (good: you remembered the molecules). But, pray tell, who unstrapped your seat belt? You could very well be riding your seat (or it could be riding you; if so, straighten up and fly right!); you might still be connected to an entire row of seats or to a row and some of the attached cabin structure.
 

If thus connected, you have some questions to address. Is your new conveyance air-worthy? If your entire row is intact and the seats are occupied, is the passenger next to you now going to feel free to break the code of silence your body language enjoined upon him at takeoff? If you choose to go it alone, simply unclasp your seat belt and drift free. Resist the common impulse to use the wreckage fragment as a "jumping-off point" to reduce your plunge-rate, not because you will thereby worsen the chances of those you leave behind (who are they kidding? they're goners!), but just because the effect of your puny jump is so small compared with the alarming Newtonian forces at work.

Just how fast are you going? Imagine standing atop a train going 120 mph, and the train goes through a tunnel but you do not. You hit the wall above the opening at 120 mph. That's how fast you will be going at the end of your fall. Yes, it's discouraging, but proper planning requires that you know the facts. You're used to seeing things fall more slowly. You're used to a jump from a swing or a jungle gym, or a fall from a three-story building on TV action news. Those folks are not going 120 mph. They will not bounce. You will bounce. Your body will be found some distance away from the dent you make in the soil (or crack in the concrete). Make no mistake: you will be motoring.

At this point you will think: trees. It's a reasonable thought. The concept of "breaking the fall" is powerful, as is the hopeful message implicit in the nursery song "Rock-a-bye, Baby," which one must assume from the affect of the average singer tells the story not of a baby's death but of its survival. You will want a tall tree with an excurrent growth pattern—a single, undivided trunk with lateral branches, delicate on top and thicker as you cascade downward. A conifer is best. The redwood is attractive for the way it rises to shorten your fall, but a word of caution here: the redwood's lowest branches grow dangerously high from the ground; having gone 35,000 feet, you don't want the last 50 feet to ruin everything. The perfectly tiered Norfolk Island pine is a natural safety net, so if you're near New Zealand, you're in luck, pilgrim. 

 

When crunch time comes, elongate your body and hit the tree limbs at a perfectly flat angle as close to the trunk as possible. Think!

Snow is good—soft, deep, drifted snow. Snow is lovely. Remember that you are the pilot and your body is the aircraft. By tilting forward and putting your hands at your side, you can modify your pitch and make progress not just vertically but horizontally as well. As you go down 15,000 feet, you can also go sideways two-thirds of that distance—that's two miles! Choose your landing zone. You be the boss....

....MUCH MORE 

"Maken Engelond Gret Ayeyn"

From Lapham's Quarterly:

How the contest between free trade and protectionism sparked fervor and unrest in medieval England

"It happened,” in the laconic words of the coroner’s inquest, “that a certain Giano Imperiale of Genoa lay slain.” The year of his visit to London was 1379, and he had been involved in a street scuffle on St. Nicholas Acton Lane. One summer evening, while Giano was sitting outside his dwelling, a passerby had trod “unwittingly” on his feet, leading to an argument, drawn swords, and Giano’s death. The killer and a confederate were indicted for the crime, but an all-Londoner jury ruled it an accidental homicide.

The matter was not, however, so easily swept under the rug. Giano, it developed, was no casual visitor. He had been admitted to England under letters of safe conduct issued by the king, who was seeking an innovative trading relationship with the Genoese. Giano and representatives of the king had already drafted an agreement allowing Genoese ships to skip the crowded Port of London, discharging and receiving cargo at the deepwater Port of Southampton instead. The product in question was English wool, a commodity so important that, at that historical moment, it accounted for a full third of the total revenue of the land. London merchants and traders had been thriving on duties and profits reaped from their absolute control of the wool trade, and the new arrangement sought by Giano would have blown their monopoly sky-high.

Needless to say, the wool men and their allies who had engineered the murder were intent on hushing it up, and two different London-based juries persisted in declaring the murderers innocent of all charges. The crown eventually moved the trial to Northampton in its quest for a conviction, and new facts were brought to light. It emerged that the scuffle was no accident, but that the murderer “went past Giano Imperiale’s feet and came back three times, on each occasion stumbling over his feet, for the sake of picking a quarrel between them.” Confronted with this and other elements of new testimony, the murderers revealed their true motive, explaining that they were acting on the belief of their masters—members of the London mayoral and trading elite—that “in the event that he could bring his plans to conclusion, Giano Imperiale would destroy and ruin all the wool merchants in London.”

Despite this technical triumph for the crown and its success in obtaining a conviction, the wool merchants prevailed in the end. One of the small-fry murderers was eventually put to death and one was released, but the crime’s architects suffered no penalties or even inconveniences. The wool men had gotten away with murder in defense of their prerogative.

Giano’s killing was one episode in the larger story of international trade and its accompanying rivalries in the later European Middle Ages. The so-called Dark Ages were never as dark as their name would imply; hucksters, peddlers, chapmen, and other minor players had always plied Europe’s roads and dealt their goods. But it was in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries that high-volume international trading seriously resumed, with trade in wool one of its major drivers. In those centuries, the Port of London alone handled almost a thousand arriving and departing trading vessels a year, and numerous other English ports (including the newly active ports of Dover and Southampton) were claiming a role. Half this activity was devoted to wool, and it generated immense wealth for the realm, conferring fortunes on a small and monopolistic group of men. These successful profiteers were not the sheepherders and shearers of the provinces, nor the merchant sailors who braved the seas, but the entrepreneurial middlemen who collected revenues on exported wool. A close-knit group of at most several hundred men, they formed allegiances and confederations throughout the mercantile establishment that dominated the leading guilds and ran the city of London.

Caravan traveling along the Silk Road, detail from the Catalan Atlas, c. 1375.
 © Bibliothèque Nationale de France / HIP / Art Resource, NY.

Knowing a good thing when they saw it, these wool merchants secured their privileges by means of favorable arrangements with select European markets, cities with which they concluded binding and mutually profitable arrangements to defend their trading rights. They came to be known as the Staplers, as a consequence of their conservative and self-interested policies. “Staple,” based on estaple—the Old French word for a marketplace or an emporium—epitomized their principal stratagem of forming treaty-based relations with a European trading center and insisting on exclusive dealings.

Of course, the tumultuous and rapidly evolving economic scene of the later Middle Ages opened the door to more than one philosophy of trade. While the conservative wool men abided by the Staple, another and more activist cohort of traders, dealing in cloth and finished wool, was also operating out of London and a hodgepodge of smaller English ports. By the fifteenth century, these merchants had organized and given themselves a name: the Company of Merchant Adventurers. Their chosen name said a great deal about them. The early Merchant Adventurers spurned settled arrangements in favor of new horizons. Unlike their Stapler peers, they preferred far-flung destinations, flexible arrangements, and speculative deals. Their ranks were open to a wide range of aspiring traders and manufacturers with eyes on international markets and products to sell, including mercers (vendors of finished cloth), drapers, haberdashers, and skinners or furriers. Their “adventure” was not so much derring-do or thrill seeking for its own sake but (in the sense of the phrase venture capitalist as we use it today) a readiness to confront economic risk, a preparedness to stake their own capital in the pursuit of profit. Economic historian E.M. Carus-Wilson captured the difference between the two groups when she wrote, “The Adventurer, unlike the Stapler, who went regularly to and fro between England and the English port of Calais, voyaged far afield, east, west, north, or south, wherever he could find an opening.”

The dour Staplers and the more rakish Adventurers and everybody in between were swept into discussions of the risks and rewards of international trade. Their concerns were advanced by English authors and poets who talked and wrote avidly about their scorn for international rivals; their approval of sporadic acts of mayhem directed against foreign competitors; their disapproval of sharp practice; the excitement and even romantic allure of their goods; the convergence of their own interests with those of their emerging nation-state. Participants in the discussion included Geoffrey Chaucer (who spent fourteen years as controller of the wool custom in the Port of London and whose father was a successful international wine trader) and the gentleman lawyer John Gower, his friend and poetic rival.....

....MUCH MORE 

First posted June 7, 2019.

News You Can Use: "Using Machine Learning to Measure CEO Depression"

With earnings season kicking off we have a natural experiment before us. And we will be paying particular attention to the bankers.

From the Journal of Accounting Research, January 8, 2025:

ABSTRACT
We introduce a novel measure of CEO depression by applying machine learning models that analyze vocal acoustic features from CEOs' conference call recordings. Our research was preregistered via the Journal of Accounting Research's registration-based editorial process. In this study, we validate this measure and examine associated factors. We find that greater firm risk is positively associated with CEO depression, whereas higher job demands are negatively associated with CEO depression. Female and older CEOs show a lower likelihood of depression. Using this novel measure, we then explore the relationship between CEO depression and career outcomes. Although we do not find any evidence that CEO depression is associated with CEO turnover, we find some evidence that turnover-performance sensitivity is higher among depressed CEOs. We also find limited evidence of higher compensation and higher pay-performance sensitivity for depressed CEOs. This study provides new insights into the relationship between CEO mental health and career outcomes.....

....MUCH MORE (the paper is open access)

 

Yeah, yeah, CEO career outcomes, blah, blah, blah. 

What we want is insight into what they are seeing but not saying. I mean the CEO is not going to be talking "Deep, ineffable sadness," or quoting Nietzsche:

He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster.
And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.

But the CEO might not have the iron discipline presumed by Voltaire's comment:

 

"Ils ne se servent de la pensée que pour autoriser leurs injustices,
et emploient les paroles que pour déguiser leurs pensées" 

—François-Marie Arouet--'Voltaire', Dialogue xiv. Le Chapon et la Poularde (1766).

"Men use thought only to justify their wrong doings, and employ speech only to conceal their thoughts"

Yes, AI and machine learning can help us detect, translate and interpret things like the CEO of RH (formerly Restoration Hardware) saying during his earnings call last week: ‘Oh, sh—’ as the stock dropped 40%.

—NBC New York: https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/oh-sh-rh-ceo-reacts-live-to-stock-tanking-on-tariffs-poor-earnings/6211001/

So we look forward to the conference calls we will hear over the next month or so, and the embedded information we can glean from them. 

Tariffs: What Is von der Leyen Sayin'?

From the European Commission, April 2:

Statement by President von der Leyen on the announcement of universal tariffs by the US 

President Trump's announcement of universal tariffs on the whole world, including the EU, is a major blow to the world economy.

I deeply regret this choice.

Let's be clear-eyed about the immense consequences.

The global economy will massively suffer.

Uncertainty will spiral and trigger the rise of further protectionism.

The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the globe.

Also for the most vulnerable countries, which are now subject to some of the highest US tariffs.

The opposite of what we want to achieve.

The tariffs will also hurt consumers around the world.

It will be felt immediately.

Millions of citizens will face higher grocery bills.

Medication will cost more as well as transportation.

Inflation will go up.

And this is hurting in particular the most vulnerable citizens.

All businesses – big and small – will suffer from day one.

From greater uncertainty to the disruption of supply chains to burdensome bureaucracy.

The cost of doing business with the United States will drastically increase.

 And what is more, there seems to be no order in the disorder.

 No clear path through the complexity and chaos that is being created as all US trading partners are hit.

In the past eighty years, trade between Europe and the United States has created millions of jobs.

Consumers across the Atlantic have benefited from reduced prices.

Businesses have benefited from huge opportunities leading to unprecedented growth and prosperity.

At the same time, we know that the global trading system has serious deficiencies.

I agree with President Trump, that others are taking unfair advantage of the current rules.

And I am ready to support any efforts to make the global trading system fit for the realities of the global economy.

But I also want to be clear: Reaching for tariffs as your first and last tool will not fix it.

That is why, from the outset, we have always been ready to negotiate with the US, to remove any remaining barriers to Transatlantic trade.

At the same time, we are prepared to respond.

We are already finalising a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel.

And we are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail.

We will also be watching closely what indirect effects these tariffs could have, because we cannot absorb global overcapacity nor will we accept dumping on our market

As Europeans we will always promote and defend our interests and values.

And we will always stand up for Europe.

But there is an alternative path.

It is not too late to address concerns through negotiations.

This is why our Trade Commissioner, Maros Šefčovič,is permanently engaged with his US counterparts.

We will work towards reducing barriers, not raising them.

Let's move from confrontation to negotiation.

Finally I would also like to speak directly to my fellow Europeans.

I know that many of you feel let down by our oldest ally.

Yes, we must brace for the impact that this will inevitably have.

Europe has everything it needs to make it through this storm.

We are in this together.

If you take on one of us, you take on all of us.

So we will stand together and stand up for each other.

Our unity is our strength.

Europe has the largest Single Market in the world - 450 million consumers - that is our safe harbour in tumultuous times.

And Europe will stand at the side of those directly impacted.

We have already announced new measures to support the steel and cars sectors.

Last week, we limited the amount of steel that can be imported to Europe tariff-free.

This will give more breathing space to these strategic industries.

Now we will also convene Strategic Dialogues with the steel, the automotive and the pharmaceutical sector.

And others will follow.

Europe stands together for our businesses, for our workers,and for all Europeans.

And we will continue to build bridges with all those that like us care about fair and rules-based trade as the basis for shared prosperity.

Thank you.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_25_964

A Tariff Trade: "How to Grow Your Own Avocado Plant from Seeds"

The Mexican drug cartels that also run the avocado trade* are going to take a hit and the supply of avocados to the U.S. market will shrink, raising prices.

As a direct investment rather than a portfolio investment we suggest:

How to Grow Your Own Avocado Plant from Seeds

Growing up in California, long before they became trendy, I ate avocados regularly. And long before avocado toast was a thing, my friend who was in culinary school introduced us to the simple but angel-chorus-cuing combo of crusty bread, slices of fresh avocado, a squeeze of lemon, and a sprinkle of fleur de sel.

But the avocados of my childhood weren’t just for eating—with my grandmother’s help, and in a way that now reminds me of the good old lemonade adage, we turned our pits into plants. Much like growing your own pineapples at home, you can also grow your own avocado plants. Here’s how to do it, plus how to care for them.

How to Plant an Avocado Seed
Growing an avocado plant indoors is just a matter of coaxing its pit to root and sprout. It won’t bear fruit, but you’ll have a cute little new houseplant for free. Here’s how to get one started....

....MUCH MORE

The next step, transplanting to soil outdoors and tending faithfully. takes years (sadly Home Depot discontinued their 'cold hardy' avocado trees for northern climes) but in addition to the fruit, rewards you with the pride of accomplishment and training in patience.

*Not kidding about the cartels. Previously: 

• Four Mexican Cartels Battling for Control of Avocado Trade
• Bullet Riddled Bodies and Your Avocado Toast

And many more. 

Earlier and more practical: "A Tariff Trade: Beneficiaries Of A Chinese Mega-Stimulus"

A Tariff Trade: Beneficiaries Of A Chinese Mega-Stimulus

 XeroHedge bullet-pointing Xi's options:

China has three options:

1. Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands
2. Devalue the yuan by 20-40%
3. Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion) which will push its debt off the chart

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 4, 2025

That was an embed in yesterday's ZH post "Trump Says China "Played It Wrong" On Retaliatory Tariffs — Now Beijing Faces Three Options" 

The leadership of both the government and the party are very reluctant to pursue options 1 and 2 unless absolutely necessary to halt a depression in China. That leaves option number 3.

And the strategy for that is to frontrun those sectors most likely to benefit.

As we mentioned in October 2024:

Get as close to that fire hose of liquidity as you can. Become a member of the party, buddy up to the politburo, whatever it takes....

This is applied Cantillon.

"Warren Buffett defended his massive $300 billion cash pile in February. Now he doesn't have to." (BRK)

From Yahoo Finance, April 4:

In February, Warren Buffett took pains in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders to explain why the conglomerate had a cash pile of $334 billion at the end of 2024.

"Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities," Buffett wrote. "That preference won’t change."

Now, with Berkshire's annual meeting just a month away, Buffett may not feel quite the same pull to further explain his decision.

When Buffett published his annual letter on Saturday, Feb. 22, Trump's tariff threats were mostly that.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) had closed at a record high on Tuesday, Feb. 19, a few days earlier.

"Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities — mostly American equities although many of these will have international operations of significance," Buffett wrote.

"Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned."

Buffett didn't mention tariffs in his letter once, nor did he suggest any sense of foreboding or even loosely predict any imminent market turbulence in this letter. (In an interview that aired in March, Buffett did warn on the negative impacts of tariffs, calling them "an act of war, to some degree.")

Still, Buffett's actions in 2024 were clear: The Oracle of Omaha preferred sitting on cash to buying more stocks.

A prescient move that has rewarded investors — Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B, BRK-A) stock is up over 12% this year; the S&P 500 has lost 11%....

...MUCH MORE

"‘Keep your head’ if you’re spooked by tariffs: Warren Buffett suggests reading a 19th century poem when stocks fall"

From CNBC, April 3:

Stock prices fell sharply on Thursday after President Donald Trump the day before announced sweeping tariffs of 10% on all U.S. trading partners and higher levies on countries with which the U.S. has a trade deficit.

With Thursday’s decline, the S&P 500 — a proxy for the broad U.S. stock market — has now slid more than 11% from its record high in February, putting the index in correction territory, defined as a drop of 10% or more from recent highs.

Investors and economists alike fear that Trump’s tariff policies could ignite a trade war with the nation’s trading partners and push inflation higher, two factors that could push the U.S. toward an economic slowdown. Should a recession become imminent, markets could sell off — and quickly. Just ask Berkshire Hathaway chairman and investing legend Warren Buffett.

“There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period,” he wrote in his 2017 letter to shareholders.

But should a major decline occur, he continued, “heed these lines” from Rudyard Kipling’s classic poem “If,” circa 1895.

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs ... If you can wait and not be tired by waiting ... If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim ... If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you ... Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.”

....MUCH MORE

Dear Fellow Members Of The Laptopocracy: You Are Not Having A Bad Day

....This is a bad day.

From SciTechDaily:

As the inhabitants of an ancient Middle Eastern city now called Tall el-Hammam went about their daily business one day about 3,600 years ago, they had no idea an unseen icy space rock was speeding toward them at about 38,000 mph (61,000 kph).

Flashing through the atmosphere, the rock exploded in a massive fireball about 2.5 miles (4 kilometers) above the ground. The blast was around 1,000 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. The shocked city dwellers who stared at it were blinded instantly. Air temperatures rapidly rose above 3,600 degrees Fahrenheit (2,000 degrees Celsius). Clothing and wood immediately burst into flames. Swords, spears, mudbricks, and pottery began to melt. Almost immediately, the entire city was on fire.

Some seconds later, a massive shockwave smashed into the city. Moving at about 740 mph (1,200 kph), it was more powerful than the worst tornado ever recorded. The deadly winds ripped through the city, demolishing every building. They sheared off the top 40 feet (12 m) of the 4-story palace and blew the jumbled debris into the next valley. None of the 8,000 people or any animals within the city survived – their bodies were torn apart and their bones blasted into small fragments.

About a minute later, 14 miles (22 km) to the west of Tall el-Hammam, winds from the blast hit the biblical city of Jericho. Jericho’s walls came tumbling down and the city burned to the ground.

It all sounds like the climax of an edge-of-your-seat Hollywood disaster movie. How do we know that all of this actually happened near the Dead Sea in Jordan millennia ago?....

....MUCH MORE

So...blinded first, then your meatsack body begins to boil, then you are sandblasted to dust and what's left ends up spread over dozens of square miles along with the dust that used to be family and friends..

That's a bad day.

The whole paper in Nature is pretty amazing.

Originally posted September 27, 2021

Also September 9, 2023

Dear Russia And Germany, Watch Out

And no, drones have not ended the era of the main battle tank.

Taking lessons learned from the war in Ukraine the machines are nastier than ever.

From Nineteen45, April 2:

K2 Black Panther Tanks Will Soon Be in Russia’s Backyard 

Summary and Key Points: South Korea’s K2 Black Panther tank, featuring advanced technology like a hydropneumatic suspension, automatic loading system, and NATO-compatible ammunition, has captured Poland’s attention.

-Poland’s significant purchase of up to 1,000 K2 tanks highlights Warsaw’s strategic shift to modernize its military, replacing Soviet-era tanks and significantly boosting NATO interoperability.

-This ambitious military deal also involves local production and technology transfer, enhancing Poland’s defense industry. Concurrently, North Korea’s arms exports to Russia illustrate a Korean arms rivalry.

-Both Koreas leverage the war in Ukraine to strengthen international partnerships, showcasing their evolving roles in global military markets and geopolitical dynamics.

Here Comes the K2 Black Panther Tank from South Korea 

The K2 Black Panther is South Korea’s primary main battle tank. It is distinct from the earlier K1 design, which is a derivative of the American M1 Abrams main battle tank. Poland is going all-in on the K2 in a massive deal with South Korea.

“The deal, signed 22 July, will see up to 1,000 Hyundai Rotem K2 Black Panther main battle tanks, 672 Hanwha Defense K9 Thunder 155 mm self-propelled artillery and 48 Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) FA-50 Fighting Eagle light fighter ground-attack aircraft acquired in stages that include technology transfer and local production,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank explained.

“Initial batches of 180 K2s, 48 K9s and 12 FA-50s will be standard production versions and deliveries should begin this year,” IISS wrote. “Polish versions will then be developed with production of the K2PL, K9PL and FA-50PL beginning in 2026, 2024 and 2025 respectively. Whilst all FA-50PLs will be built in South Korea, Polish production of the K2PL and K9PL will begin in 2026. Joint development of follow-on tank and howitzer systems is also planned.”

The Design of K2 Black Panther Tank 

One of the K2’s more notable features is its hydropneumatic suspension, which allows for independent control of each of the tank’s 12 road wheels. This affords the tank excellent off-road mobility and the ability to essentially raise or lower either end or side of the tank into a kneeling or a heads-up position....

....MUCH MORE 

Regarding Deutschland in the headline that's a reference to January 2024's "Ukraine’s Leopard 2 tanks are nearly all destroyed or broken"
Poland gives South Korea* a high-five while thinking "Berlin, here we come." (just kidding) 

With this outro:

As noted a year ago the Leopard 2 is not the wunderwaffe it was touted as and could be beaten by 8th century jihadis in Syria.
*Regarding South Korea: "Poland’s Blooming Relationship With South Korea". 

And the outro from ""Saab Signs Contract for Two SIGINT ships for Poland" (plus some other stuff)": 

....Beginning with the South Korea deal. Poland isn't simply buying big iron.  As noted in August's "Watch Out Lithuania: Poland Is Militarizing Faster Than Any Nation In Europe" as part of the agreement Poland has a license to build the tanks:

....Poland will import the first batch of 180 K2PL tanks, with another 800 manufactured in Poland, under the name “Wilk” (“Wolf”)....

These aren't just any tanks. From the introduction to September's "Poland Will Have a Large and Modern Tank Army" 

One of the odder comments on Russia's war against Ukraine was making the rounds last week, to the effect that Russia buying munitions from North Korea was a sign of weakness.

It is more likely a sign that North Korea's war plans are very similar to Russia's, lots, and I mean lots of artillery, and the shells to go with them. It actually seems natural.

In the same vein, Poland's joint venture with South Korea to secure a whole bunch of tanks seems very smart. These are the tanks Seoul developed to hold back the North Koreans and they are reputed to be among the best in the world....

Which was followed by: "...And Helicopters, Poland Will Have A LOT Of Attack Helicopters":

...Deadly nasty killing machines. 

So the distance from Warsaw to Brussels being 1160 km (721 miles) and with a ferry range of 1,900km the copters would need to be refueled outbound and for a return trip. Unless it's a kamikaze mission.

Wait, what am I saying, they aren't going to attack EU headquarters. 

Right?

Probably just Berlin and back home for dinner. 

Maybe Strasbourg.

There is much more than just buying arms and armaments going on here. Because of the hostility toward Poland's government from Brussels, and the possibility that at some point in the future NATO's Article 5 will be invoked by Poland only to be met with reluctant mobilization on the part of the other NATO members or, worse, silence, Poland wants at minimum to have the capability to slow-down any future attack. Memories are long in that part of the world and everyone remembers what happened to Czechoslovakia in 1938, what with the 'Peace for our time' and all. 

This attitude on the part of the Poles is exactly the same as their reasoning on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, February 2018: "Polish PM: Nord Stream II Would Make Russia Free to act Against Ukraine, So Must Not be Built".

When Germany and the EU decided to go ahead with the pipeline, despite a half-decade of warnings* from Poland, the Poles bought themselves a geopolitical insurance policy, the President Lech Kaczyński LNG facility in Świnoujście, about eight feet from the German border on the Baltic. Which they expanded. And expanded again while offering Germany some of the gas if Germany would just think twice about Nord Stream 2.

The thing to know about insurance policies is you have to pay the premium up front and it can be a very visible cost. Which will only seem prudent should something bad happen.

But there are some things you can't measure in zlotys alone.

"Trump tariffs may drive bad loans in China to pandemic-high levels, S&P says"

From the South China Morning Post, April 3:

Non-performing assets ratio could approach 6.5 per cent seen during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2022 if tariffs hit harder

Banks in China could face more bad loans, potentially hitting 6.4 per cent of total lending next year, according to a forecast by S&P Global Ratings, as higher US tariffs weigh on an economy that is still struggling to shake off the lingering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The warning came in a report on Thursday, after President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on all US trade partners, including a 10 per cent levy on all imports and higher rates for about 60 countries with large trade surpluses against the US. China will face an additional 34 per cent rate, on top of the 20 per cent imposed earlier this year.

If the tariffs hit harder and China’s property sector does not hit its bottom, banks’ non-performing assets (NPA) ratio could approach the peak of 6.5 per cent seen during the Covid lockdown period in 2022, S&P said. As a result, credit losses could rise to 2.7 trillion yuan (US$370.4 billion) next year and exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2027, it added.

“It never rains but it pours,” the report said, referring to the multiple challenges faced by the world’s second-largest economy in recent years, including the pandemic and the property market crisis. “And it now faces additional strains from more US tariffs on its exports.”

Higher-than-expected tariffs could hit export-related sectors and employment, stoking loan delinquencies among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and unsecured retail lending at a time when domestic economic conditions were still uncertain, the rating firm said.

Chinese home-appliance makers could be among the hardest hit in what Jefferies analysts called a “nightmare-come-true” scenario. For textile and footwear contract suppliers, bearing the full tariff brunt could wipe out 50 to 67 per cent of their profits from selling to the US, they added.

Smaller companies had less financial flexibility to absorb the costs of additional tariffs or pass them on to consumers, according to S&P....

....MUCH MORE

Capital Markets: "Friday: Tariffs, US Jobs, Powell, and Melting Equities"

The action in the dollar is going to fall somewhere on the interesting—terrifying spectrum. *

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview:  There appear to be two-forces at work that has helped the US dollar recover. First, as the market continues to debate whether the reciprocal tariffs are a negotiating ploy and in this tug-of-war of sorts, President Trump's declaration that he is open to "phenomenal offers" plays into that view. Still, the fact that Israel got rid of all of its tariffs on the US and still was hit with a 17% levy is notable. Second, there may be some position-adjustment ahead of the US jobs report. So far, the weakness in the US labor market appears in the soft, survey data, not the hard data, like weekly initial jobless claims. The rise in continuing claims is consistent with slowing in employment. A few hours after the jobs report, Fed Chair Powell will speak about the economy. This could be another source of volatility. However, we suspect he will be reluctant to signal much concern about the volatility of the stock market, i.e., no resurrection of the simplistic--stock market falls sharply, and Fed will cut" so-called Fed put.

The US dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the Swiss franc. German factory orders disappointed and BOJ Governor Ueda recognized the unsettled global environments. Emerging market currencies are mixed with Asia-Pacific outperforming central Europe. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at its highest for the year. Few equity markets have escaped the selling pressure and US index futures are off 0.5%-1.0%, which warns of the gap lower opening. Bonds are still the safe haven. European 10-year yields are off 6-10 bp, and the peripheral premiums are widening. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off eight basis points to about 3.95%. Gold, ironically, is trading more like a risk asset and is off 0.75% today, but above yesterday's low (~$3054). May WTI has extended yesterday's dramatic sell-off, spurred by OPEC+ decision to boost sales around three-times more than expected and broader growth concerns. The contract reached about $64.25, its lowest since last September.

USD: The dollar fell sharply and broadly yesterday. The Dollar Index dropped by almost 1.7%, its largest drop since November 2022. It fell from a high Wednesday near 104.30 to a low a near 101.25 but managed to settle above slightly102.00. The sell-off was so sharp that the Dollar Index spent most of the European and North American session below three standard deviations from the 20-day moving average (~112.20)....

....MUCH MORE
*Related: "Has China Run Out of Dollars? (will Europe?)"

"China to impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S."

From CNBC, April 4:

China’s finance ministry on Friday said it will impose a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. starting on April 10 in the wake of duties imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration earlier this week, according to state news outlet Xinhua.

This breaking news story is being updated.

Also at CNBC:

Dow futures drop more than 800 points after China retaliates with tariffs on U.S. goods: Live updates

Now 900 points.

European shares drop at the end of brutal week after Trump's tariff blow

First up, from Reuters via MSN April 4: 

European shares dipped on Friday, heading for a steep weekly loss, as investors grappled with prospects of a global recession after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on trading partners.

The pan-European STOXX index fell 0.9% at 0710 GMT, taking its losses for the week to 4.4%, the sharpest weekly decline since June 2022. 

Europe was hit with a 20% U.S. import tariff rate, prompting traders to increase their bets on interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank to shore up economic growth.

European banks, sensitive to economic outlook, racked up the most losses among sectors, shedding 3.8%....

....MORE

And from Reuters via Investing.com, April 3:

’Tariff avoiders’ among surprise bright spots dappling Europe markets 

Shares of surprise tariff avoiders like pharmaceuticals and drinks firms and rate-sensitive stocks such as real estate were among the few to post gains in Europe on Thursday, as fears of a global recession sent wider markets tumbling.

The broad STOXX 600 dropped to its lowest in two months and was last down 1.2%, but U.S. index futures fell more, around 3%, as President Donald Trump’s drastic trade tariffs sent investors out of stocks into the safety of bonds and gold. [MKTS/GLOB]

The euro itself roared higher, heading for its biggest one-day rise in almost a decade, up over 2.5% at one point at $1.1147, as investors dumped dollars.

Among the gloom in the stocks world, surprise bright spots appeared, particularly in those sectors where investors had been bracing for high tariffs, but did not see their worst fears materialise.

European spirit makers were expected to see large tariffs after a social media post from Trump last month suggesting as much. After they avoided any particularly special harsh treatment, however, shares rose on Wednesday.

Diageo (LON:DGE) and Davide Campari (LON:0ROY) were up over 2%, rebounding after recent tumbles.

"The scale of tariffs for spirits stocks is less than feared," Citi analysts said, adding that markets had anticipated around 25% tariffs on the sector.

Pharmaceuticals also posted gains. British drugmakers GSK and AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) each rose over 1% after Trump spared pharmaceutical products from wide-ranging reciprocal tariffs....

....MUCH MORE

"US-China decoupling: Washington bans diplomats and staff from romance and sex with Chinese"

 From the South China Morning Post, April 3:

Those who do not receive exemption and are found violating the ban will be subject to immediate expulsion from China, according to report 

The US government has imposed a sweeping ban prohibiting American diplomats, their families and security-cleared contractors in China from engaging in romantic or sexual relationships with Chinese citizens, Associated Press has reported.

The policy applies to staff at the US embassy in Beijing and consulates in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang and Wuhan, as well as the consulate in Hong Kong. US personnel stationed outside China or those already in pre-existing relationships with Chinese citizens might be exempt, the report said, citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter.

A less restrictive version of the policy was introduced last summer, prohibiting US personnel from having “romantic and sexual relations” with Chinese citizens working as guards and other support staff at the US embassy and five consulates in China.

The ban, implemented days before US ambassador Nicholas Burns left his post in January.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun declined to comment on the issue on Thursday afternoon, referring reporters to the US government.

“I think you’d better ask the American side about this question,” Guo said....

....MUCH MORE  

Possibly tit-for-tat, so to speak, for February 13's "How Not To Get Seduced By Foreign Spies: China’s Spy Agency":

....Recently, it warned people:

– not to get seduced by “tall, beautiful people”

In any event, Congressman Swalwell hardest hit

"U.S., India Talk Trade as New Tariffs Hit"

Modi's people will figure something out. Indian people have been negotiating deals for five thousand years.

From Foreign Policy, April 2:

South Asia Brief on where bilateral negotiations stand. 

U.S. and Indian officials concluded an initial round of discussions on a bilateral trade deal in New Delhi over the weekend. Talks regarding specific sectors are expected in the next few weeks. The two countries committed to pursuing a deal in February, after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington.

The time frame is tight, with an agreement on the first phase of a trade agreement targeted for the fall. Trade negotiations are especially urgent for India because they are playing out against Washington’s new reciprocal tariffs, which Trump was expected to unveil on Wednesday.

The levies could hit India hard: The country has a nearly $50 billion trade deficit with the United States in its favor. New Delhi’s tariff rates are among the world’s highest; on average, it currently charges more than 10 percent more on U.S. imports than the United States charges on Indian imports. Trump has repeatedly singled out India as a tariff offender.

The U.S.-India trade deal is intended to reduce both tariff and nontariff barriers, meaning that reaching an agreement could help blunt the effects of any new U.S. duties on India’s economy....

....MORE

ICYMI: Japan's Magaquake Warning—Worst-Case Scenario Revised

From Tokyo's NHK, April 1:

Japan's mega-quake death toll estimated at about 300,000 in worst-case scenario 

A government panel has revised its damage estimate for an anticipated mega-quake in the Nankai Trough off Japan's Pacific coast. It predicts that an earthquake of up to magnitude 9 will claim about 298,000 lives. Seismologists say there is a roughly 80 percent chance of such a quake occurring in the next 30 years. What does the worst-case scenario look like?

The panel now estimates that the seismic intensity would reach the maximum of 7 on the Japanese scale in 10 prefectures, and lower 6 or above in 24 prefectures.

It also says tsunamis at least 10 meters high could hit Tokyo and 12 other prefectures from the Kanto through Kyushu regions. Some areas could be hit by waves higher than 30 meters.

Bracing for the worst

The panel predicts a worst-case death toll of 298,000 if the earthquake occurs late at night in winter. That's slightly down from the previous figure published a decade ago. The highest number of deaths is expected to be caused by tsunami....

....MUCH MORE including graphs, maps, analysis, pretty much everything a risk manager needs.

"Asian markets extend losses amid Trump tariff uncertainty"

From the Washington Post, April 3: 

President Donald Trump suggested he might be open to doing deals over tariffs, raising hopes in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. But China is preparing to retaliate.

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Stock markets in Asia fell sharply when they opened on Friday, continuing the steep declines recorded in the United States, amid fears of a full-blown global trade war and an economic recession sparked by President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz.

China, one of the hardest hit by this week’s tariffs, has vowed to take “firm countermeasures” to retaliate, although Beijing has not yet provided any detail.

Analysts say the escalation diminishes chances of negotiations between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies, but other regional leaders seized on Trump’s suggestion he might be open to cutting deals, despite his previous insistence that he was not interested in discussing exemptions to his tariffs.

Amid the ongoing uncertainty, shares in Australia, Japan and South Korea opened lower on Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei-225 fell by more than 2 percent and the Topix by almost 3 percent when trading opened in Tokyo, with automakers including Toyota and Honda particularly badly hit, each down more than 5 percent Friday morning, after Trump introduced a 25 percent tariff on all foreign-made cars and car parts.

Australia’s ASX-200 declined almost 2 percent in early trading Friday and South Korea’s KOSPI lost 1.15 percent, although it quickly recovered. Trading in China and Hong Kong was closed on Friday for the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday.

In the U.S. on Thursday, stocks closed down sharply, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling close to 6 percent for the day and the S&P 500 notching its biggest one-day drop since summer of 2020, closing down 4.8 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 4 percent.

On a day he branded “Liberation Day,” Trump on Wednesday announced a 10 percent tariff that would apply to imports from every country, and a separate set of what he called “reciprocal” tariffs that impose a higher country-specific rate.

These included a new tariff of 34 percent on Chinese goods, on top of the 20 percent levy already imposed as Trump accused Beijing of not doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl and its precursors into the U.S. It is also in addition to existing tariffs on goods including some appliances, machinery and clothing that were already as high as 45 percent.

“Trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism will lead nowhere,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Thursday. “The U.S. needs to correct its wrongdoings and resolve trade disputes with countries, including China, through consultation with equality, respect and mutual benefit.”

Trump also closed the “de minimis” loophole that allowed items being shipped or brought into the United States that are worth less than $800 to circumvent import taxes, a move that will hit customers of Chinese e-commerce sites like Shein and Temu particularly hard.

Trump also slapped duties of 24 and 26 percent on Japan and South Korea, respectively — both are key U.S. security allies and major trading partners — and 32 percent on Taiwan, although he exempted its advanced semiconductors from the levies.

Trump also targeted many of the countries that had benefited from companies’ efforts to diversify supply chains away from China: Cambodia was stung with a 49 percent tariff, Vietnam with 46 percent, and Thailand, 36 percent....

....MUCH MORE

"Asia Bears Brunt of Trump Tariffs, Needs to Ease, Economists Say"

From Bloomberg, April 3:

Asia is bearing the brunt of new US tariffs which will drag on regional growth through weaker business investment and sentiment, requiring central banks to step in with more interest-rate cuts, economists reckon.

“The impact on ASEAN is more pronounced this time,” said Selena Ling, head of research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Given a narrower tariff gap between China and previous popular destinations such as Vietnam and Thailand, China’s prior strategy of routing exports through ASEAN may now be less effective. As a result, the trade dynamic may shift again.”

The Trump administration’s tariffs come at a time when Asian economies are already grappling with tepid growth, with sticky inflation keeping some central banks on high alert. While Australia and New Zealand are among countries that got off relatively lightly with a 10% levy, as small, open economies they are particularly reliant on global trade to underpin prosperity.

Money markets are now pricing four more rate cuts this year by Australia’s central bank, up from three previously, which would take its cash rate to 3.1%.

Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have cut growth forecasts for Asia and predict an easier monetary policy stance in India, South Korea and several Southeast Asian economies including Indonesia and Malaysia.

Read More: Trump Derails China+1 Strategy, Leaving Companies No Escape

There will be a “hard-hitting impact” on economic growth for the region, OCBC’s Ling said, singling out Vietnam as the country set to see the biggest impact, followed by Thailand. She anticipates Indonesia and India will be “more insulated” and the Philippines the least impacted. Ling also revised her central bank forecasts, adding 50-basis points of cuts each for the five countries....

....MUCH MORE

Big If True: Kazakhstan Announced The Discovery Of A Huge Rare Earth Deposit

From Eurasianet, April 3:

Kazakhstan makes bombshell announcement in advance of Central Asia-European Union summit
Astana stokes competition for region’s rare earths.

On the eve of the first-ever Central Asia-European Union summit, Kazakhstan announced the discovery of vast deposits of rare earths, a big nugget of information clearly designed to attract foreign investment.

The two-day summit kicked off on April 3 in the Uzbek city of Samarkand, with the leaders of Central Asian states, along with European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in attendance. 

The EU’s primary objective is to deepen its trade & investment relations with the five Central Asian states, capitalizing on the growing interest of regional leaders in diversifying their options via the development of the Middle Corridor trade route. Access to Central Asia’s abundant mineral resources has also rapidly emerged as a point of interest for both the United States and EU.

“Reaffirming our commitment to deeper cooperation in an evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape, we have decided to upgrade relations between the European Union and Central Asia to a strategic partnership,” a draft EU statement declares, according to a version seen by RFE/RL reporters.

The Kazakh announcement on April 2 about the discovery of more than 20 million metric tons of metal deposits is sure to be a major topic of discussion at the summit. If verified, the discovery would give Kazakhstan the world’s third largest reserves of rare earth metals, behind only China and Brazil. The newly discovered deposits contain neodymium, cerium, lanthanum and yttrium, elements used in the production of a wide array of advanced technological devices, including medical equipment, car batteries, catalytic converters, lasers and optics....

....MUCH MORE

It's a big country, they have space for a lot of resources. Here's a September 2022 post with some additional back-links:
"In His First Trip Abroad Since The Start Of The Pandemic, China's Xi Will Visit Producer Of Half The World's Uranium"

Priorities. The Xi-man is not playing around.

From XeroHedge:

In his first overseas trip since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the country responsible for roughly half of the world's uranium production.

On September 14, Xi will visit Kazakhstan, the SCMP reported citing a Monday announcement at a briefing by the Kazakh foreign ministry. It follows months of speculation about the location of Xi’s first trip abroad since he went to Myanmar in January 2020. Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy has curtailed travel inside and out of the country, and Xi and other senior figures have not left China since the start of the pandemic.

Of the 25 Politburo members, only foreign policy chief Yang Jiechi has travelled abroad. Meanwhile, the country’s No 3 official, Li Zhanshu, will go to Russia on Wednesday in a sign that China’s top officials are resuming international travel. Li, head of the legislature, will also visit Mongolia, Nepal and South Korea.

As reported previously, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has said Xi will visit Bali for the Group of 20 summit in November - where Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy will also be present.

Xi will meet Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for talks the host government said were “aimed at further deepening the eternal comprehensive strategic partnership and developing political, trade, economic, cultural and humanitarian cooperation”.

The visit could be followed by a trip to Uzbekistan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, according to the SCO’s official Telegram channel. In a post on Sunday, the SCO said that “the leaders of all states confirmed their full-time participation in the summit” in Samarkand, to be held on September 15 and 16.

More importantly, in Uzbekistan, Xi would be expected to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin for the first time since the pair announced a “no limits” partnership on the eve of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Just three weeks later, Russian forces invaded Ukraine, leading to much speculation about how much Xi and other Chinese leaders knew about the operation in advance.

The pair have been in telephone contact since – notably on Xi’s 69th birthday on June 15. At the time, Chinese state media quoted Xi as saying that “China is willing to continue to support the Russian side on issues related to core interests and major concerns such as sovereignty and security, to work closely on strategic cooperation between the two countries”.

Russia is one of eight member states of the SCO, along with China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. There are four observer states in the process of acceding to the forum – Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia – while Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Türkiye are dialogue partners.....

....MUCH MORE

There is another smaller group whose membership overlaps with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: 

Get To Know The Eurasian Economic Union

Membership in the EAEU was the overt reason Russia moved to help Kazakhstan put down the coup attempt in early January. It seems so long ago but it's been less than 80 days.

Well the EAEU and the fact Kazakhstan is the world's largest uranium producer, with output larger than the next four biggest - combined.

And the fact that, as seen in 2014's "Market Differentiation: "Kazakh leader may drop the 'stan' in Kazakhstan"" it is located in a very interesting neighborhood:

One of these is not like the others:

From Reuters...MORE

That post was followed, in May 2014, after the coup in Ukraine, by:
"Getting the Band Back Together: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan to Formalize Trade Bloc (Kyrgyzstan, Armenia hope to join by year end)"

And then in October 2014 by: "Back In the U.S.S.R: Russia Completes Ratification of Eurasian Economic Union".

Why all this history?  So that when the talk at next week's salon turns to Eurasia our readers can say: I was just reading about that in "Meanwhile In Kazakhstan: "EAEU and China will develop a draft international financial system" (March 14) or these two from Russia Briefing:
March 23
Kazakhstan-Eurasian Economic Union Trade Up 29% In January
Kazakhstan’s bilateral trade with other member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia reached US$1.7 billion in January 2022, which is 29% higher than the same period last year, according to Kazakhstan’s Statistics Committee.....MUCH MORE

And March 22: "Russia And Iran To Begin Banking & Finance Cooperation"

And then, visualizing the map, think about all the countries we've been posting on this month, Russia, China, India, Afghanistan, Iran and all the rest and maybe say to ones self:

"What the hell is going on?"

Unfortunately, when the U.S. does Kazakhstan it seems to be for personal gain:  

Hunter Biden's Excellent Kazakhstan Adventure

Bill Clinton Linked To Kazakhstan Uranium Scandal