"Russia Halts Ammonium Nitrate Exports As Global Fertilizer Crisis Set To Worsen"

Our old pal, the nitrogen atom.* 

From ZeroHedge, March 24:

The fertilizer crisis appears to be worsening just as the Northern Hemisphere planting season, in some areas, is about to begin, with top ammonium nitrate supplier Russia announcing on Tuesday via state media that exports of the critical crop nutrient will be halted. 

Russia's state-run news agency TASS said Russia will suspend ammonium nitrate exports from March 21 through April 21. The report cited a statement from the Agriculture Ministry.

The temporary restriction is intended to secure domestic fertilizer supplies during the spring planting season. Exports made under intergovernmental agreements are exempt.

Russia is the world's largest producer of ammonium nitrate. In 2024, the country produced about 12 million tons, roughly 47% of the global output of the plant nutrient. It was also the largest exporter at about 2.7 million tons, around 37% of global export volume and 40% of export value.

Data based on IndexBox’s ammonium nitrate world market overview

Export disruptions of the critical crop nutrient can hit import-dependent buyers hard, especially in markets such as Brazil, Canada, India, Peru, and Ukraine.

 

Data based on IndexBox’s ammonium nitrate world market overview

Russia's temporary export comes at the worst possible timing as the Northern Hemisphere planting season begins in some regions. 

The risk now is that, as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, a global energy shock is also spreading to fertlizer markets and may only suggest a delayed food price shock later this year. 

"The speed of the move [energy shock] pushed volatility sharply higher, with energy once again becoming the primary transmission channel for geopolitical risk into broader macro pricing," UBS analyst Claudio Martucci warned clients earlier this month. 

Claudio pointed out, "Agricultural markets reacted more indirectly to the energy shock via higher fertilizer costs, and higher input and biofuel costs lifted soybean oil to two-year highs, while wheat experienced elevated volatility and some profit-taking late in the week despite an otherwise supportive commodity backdrop."

Last week, former central banker advisor Alexandra Prokopenko warned on X that the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an energy shock that risks morphing into a "slower, more consequential story": fertilizers.

"A near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a supply shock that will show up in food prices 6–9 months from now," Prokopenko wrote on X, adding, "Putin's gains here may be more long-term than simply lining his pockets with petrodollars."....

****

.... Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White recently warned, "But food prices are likely to be as troublesome for second-round inflationary effects. Less well known is that the shock to food prices was worse than the oil price shocks of the 1970s, following the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution. Food inflation in the US was already rising before both shocks, and contributed more to headline CPI than energy through almost all of the 70s."

Prokopenko pointed out, "Consequences already material. Urea up 25-30% since Feb. 28. Gulf producers have declared force majeure on contracts to South America and Asia. ~1 million metric tons of fertilizer physically stranded in the Gulf. Force majeure means contracts are legally severed, not delayed. Buyers must find alternatives now."....

....MUCH MORE

The analysts should be aware of "The Great Grain Robbery" in late summer 1972. If you look at the chart immediately above. that is when food prices began to spike and were actually coming down by the time oil prices quadrupled during/after the 1973 oil embargo.

It was the move in grains and then in meats that convinced me the CIA was either corrupt and made (big) money off of what happened or they were incompetent and didn't see what was happening.

*Here is the search of the blog: https://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/search?q=nitrogen

The first (most relevant) hit is October 2020's "Turning air into bread":

Since I have been, and will be, going on about ammonia as a carrier for hydrogen 

NH₃ - ammonia - three hydrogens attached to a nitrogen:

Credit: This Condensed Life

about fertilizer and guano, about Yara and Norsk Hydro and Birkeland and explosives, I thought it time to add another post to our nitrogen mini-library....

The outro has these backlinks: 

Previously on our friend, nitrogen:
"How Making One Chemical Created the Modern World"
"Can We Grow One of the World's Largest Food Crops Without Fertilizer?"
The Adventures of a Nitrogen Atom
This Could Be A Big Deal: Norway's Yara and the Australian Nitrogen Economy
Shipping: "UK Department of Transport recommends launch of ammonia / hydrogen powered vessels within 5-15 years"
Ammonia, it's what everyone is talking about.
And if your crowd isn't, you'll be the best-informed next-gen energy storage/transport-medium connoisseur at the Thursday afternoon salon!
The $100M Synthetic Biology Bet From Bayer and Ginko Bioworks (YAR:Oslo; CF)
"Saudi Arabia Sends Blue Ammonia to Japan in World-First Shipment"
Nitrogen Upgraded, Potash Target Lowered; Ununquadium Decayed (AGU, CF; TRA; POT)
That Time A Dozen Norwegians Stopped the Nazis From Developing the Atom Bomb and Possibly Saved Europe 

Many more links have been posted over the ensuing half-decade accessible via the search sorted by date (reverse chronological order):

https://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/search?q=nitrogen&max-results=20&by-date=true 

Capital Markets: "Yesterday's Optimism Turns More Guarded "

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

The markets remain on edge. President Trump’s five-day hiatus announced yesterday is looked upon suspiciously. Much of what has been claimed seems to be part of the psych-operations associated with warfare, like initiating the war during negotiations. Many seem to share our sense that the five-day period will allow more US troops to enter the region and perhaps attempt to take Kharg Island. The US strategy seems to waver between destroying Iran’s capability to even make a paperclip to seeking regime change and keeping the energy infrastructure intact to allow the new regime to rebuild. Meanwhile, more ships appear to be passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which appears becoming a toll booth for $2 mln passage fee to be paid in yuan. Meanwhile, the US has given Europe an ultimatum of its own: Agree to the trade deal by March 26 of lose favorable access to the US liquified natural gas. 

Follow-through dollar selling has been limited today after yesterday’s setback. The market lacks near-term conviction. The preliminary March PMIs were mostly weaker, and this is only the initial inkling of the disruptive impact of the war. Yesterday’s hopeful optimism has yielded to a more wary stance today....

....MUCH MORE  

Toll Road: "Chinese boxship pays Iran for Hormuz passage as corridor traffic grows"

Because Chinese ships could probably pass the toll booth for free being that they are, well, Chinese I'm guessing this was done to set a precedent for other shipping lines/countries.

As part of their excuse for the right to extract tolls, the Iranians are pointing to Egypt and the Suez Canal and Panama and its namesake canal. This is of course geographically illiterate as the canals go through those countries whereas the Strait of Hormuz is next to Iran and thus an international waterway.

From Lloyd's List Intelligence, March 23: 

• Chinese-owned feeder containership pays Iran for Hormuz transit
• Passage was arranged through a Chinese maritime services intermediary
• Larger Chinese shipowners remain cautious, with Cosco’s vessels still anchored in the Middle East Gulf

Iran’s pay-to-pass corridor gains traction as first confirmed Chinese vessel makes transit

Transit was brokered by a Chinese maritime services company acting as an intermediary, which handled the payment to Iranian authorities, Lloyd’s List understands.

A CHINESE-OWNED feeder containership has become the first vessel with confirmed mainland Chinese ownership to pay Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, transiting via a so-called “safe” shipping corridor near Tehran’s Larak Island during the weekend.

According to ship databases, the registered owner of Panama-flagged Newvoyager (IMO: 1088396) is Bengbu Shengda Transportation, based in China’s Anhui province, while shipmanagement is handled by Shanghai-based United Pioneer Shipping.

Its beneficial owner remains unclear, however.

The transit was brokered by a Chinese maritime services company acting as an intermediary, which also handled the payment to Iranian authorities, Lloyd’s List understands. The exact amount and method of payment could not be confirmed.

This makes Newvoyager another case in which a shipping firm paying Iran for passage through the corridor since it was established — following a tanker operator previously reported by Lloyd’s List — and the first involving a ship definitively linked to Chinese ownership.

More than 20 vessels have so far been tracked using the Larak Island corridor to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. The majority have been Greek-owned, though Indian, Pakistani, Syrian and Iran’s own vessels have also been identified among them....

....MUCH MORE 

Previously:

March 20 - "Iran floats Hormuz transit tolls as Persian Gulf states warn of military response"

"Strikes continue as Iran rejects US talks; Israeli officials see deal as unlikely"

That's the headline on top of Iran International's liveblog. Here's the story, March 24:

Iran unlikely to accept US demands as Trump pursues deal - Reuters 

US President Donald Trump appears determined to reach a deal with Iran to end hostilities in the Middle East, three senior Israeli officials told Reuters, adding it is unlikely Tehran will accept US demands.

The officials said expected US demands would include limits on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Trump said on Monday the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive” talks on a possible resolution, but Iran said no negotiations had taken place.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Trump sees a chance to turn recent military gains into a deal that protects Israel’s interests.

And here is the top of the liveblog. 

Morgan Stanley Raised Their Price Target On GE Vernova Citing Stronger Turbine Pricing (GEV)

The stock set a new all-time intraday high yesterday at $920.63 up $69.56 which seemed rather exuberant. It pulled back to close up "only" $31.57, squeaking out an all-time closing high at $882.64.

From Investing.com March 23: 

Morgan Stanley raised its price target on GE Vernova to $960 from $817 citing improving demand for gas turbines, rising pricing and stronger medium-term growth tied to electrification.

Analysts said recent data points point to continued momentum across the business, with turbine demand running ahead of expectations into the first quarter and pricing trending higher for later-year orders.

“We expect Electrification will also support incremental medium-term growth and look towards Service & Nuclear opportunities in the 2030s for additional upside,” Morgan Stanley analysts say.

Gas turbine pricing is moving toward $3000 per kilowatt from about $2500 currently, implying roughly a 20% increase.

Morgan Stanley said this reflects stronger willingness to invest in power infrastructure, particularly tied to data center demand.

The firm added that GE Vernova is largely sold out through 2028, with limited availability for 2029, meaning higher pricing is likely to be reflected in contracts over the next few years.

Morgan Stanley expects cumulative gas turbine orders to approach the company’s 100 gigawatt target by the end of the first quarter, positioning it for potential upside through the rest of the year....

....MORE  

Memory: Korea's SK Hynix To Spend $8 Billion On ASML's Top End Machines; May Raise $10 Billion In U.S. ADR Listing

First up, from Bloomberg via The Edge (Singapore), March 24:

SK Hynix Inc plans to spend 11.9 trillion won (US$7.9 billion or $10 billion) on cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography chipmaking tools from ASML Holding NV, deepening a push into next-generation memory to sate quickening AI demand.

The order — valid through 2027 — marks one of the largest of its kind, underscoring how chipmakers are racing to secure the EUV gear essential to mass-producing the world’s most sophisticated semiconductors.

SK Hynix’s decision reflects the intensifying competition with Samsung Electronics Co to supply the most advanced memory required for Nvidia Corp AI accelerators. EUV machines can cost hundreds of millions of dollars apiece and are critical for advanced DRAM and high-bandwidth memory. Other major buyers of ASML’s gear include Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

For ASML, the deal reinforces its central role in the global chip industry....

....MORE 

The Edge, front page. 

And from Bloomberg, March 23:

SK Hynix Eyes Up to $10 Billion From Potential US Listing, Daily Says 

SK Hynix Inc. is seeking to raise 10 trillion won to 15 trillion won ($10 billion) from a potential listing in the US, the Korea Economic Daily reported, as companies rush to increase capacity to meet memory chip demand fueled by the artificial-intelligence boom.

The South Korean chipmaker plans to issue new shares for a listing of American depositary receipts, the publication said, citing industry sources it didn’t name. SK Hynix is earmarking the potential proceeds for building AI infrastructure such as a semiconductor cluster in Yongin, South Korea, as well as for expanding capacity for memory products, the Daily said.

“Various measures to enhance shareholder value, including ADRs, are currently under review,” an SK Hynix spokesperson said in response to the report. “However, nothing has been finalized.”

A US listing would give the company access to a fresh pool of investors and could help SK Hynix narrow a gap in its valuation compared with global competitors. The company has been one of the biggest global winners of the rush for memory chips. A 364% gain in its shares has been one of the key drivers in South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index rising 110% in the past year.

“Once US institutional investors gain direct access to the AI infrastructure theme through an ADR, the premium multiple that SK Hynix’s dominant HBM position truly deserves could finally be reflected in its valuation,” said Ha SeokKeun, chief investment officer at Eugene Asset Management Co.

The deal, if it were to pan out, would rank among the biggest New York listings by foreign companies. Asian issuers that have already been listed in the US include chipmaker Taiwanese chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co....

....MUCH MORE 

Five Years Ago Today The Ever Given Blocked The Suez Canal

From Dredging Today, March 23:

From Ever Given to Hormuz: Spotlight on strategic importance of maritime chokepoints

As the Middle East conflict throttles global trade via the Strait of Hormuz, five years ago a stranded cargo ship revealed a frail transport system. On this day, the 400m-long Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal, Egypt, completely blocking the waterway for six days. 

The 20,000 TEU vessel was buffeted by strong winds on the morning of 23 March, and ended up wedged across the waterway with its bow and stern stuck on opposite canal banks, blocking all traffic and creating one of the most dramatic disruptions in modern shipping history.

The incident halted roughly 12% of global trade, costing the Egyptian economy millions in daily revenue.

Salvage teams from multiple countries worked around the clock to refloat the vessel, employing dredgers, tugboats and careful maneuvering. Dredgers were brought in and dug 30,000 cubic meters of mud and sand from beneath the ends of the ship....

....MUCH MORE 

 

Via Wikipedia 

And via one of our contemporaneous posts: 

Managed to dig out good part of the bulbous thingy. It's still stuck. #Evergiven #SuezCanal #Suez pic.twitter.com/zbeD59LA6V

— Guy With The Digger At Suez Canal (@SuezDiggerGuy) March 25, 2021

"Palestine condemns Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia"

Not a headline I ever expected to see.

From al-Arabiya, March 21:

Palestine condemns Iran’s attacks on Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, Palestinian Interior Minister Ziyad Hab al-Reeh told his Saudi counterpart on Saturday.

Hab al-Reeh and Saudi Interior Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Nayef discussed regional developments during a phone call, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.

During the call, the Palestinian minister “expressed his country’s condemnation of the Iranian attacks targeting the Kingdom, the Gulf states, and the region,” SPA said.

Hab al-Reeh also “affirmed the State of Palestine’s solidarity with all measures taken by the Kingdom to preserve its security, sovereignty, and the safety of its territory and citizens,” according to the agency.

Iran has launched far more missiles and drones at Gulf states than at Israel since the war began on February 28, according to an Al Arabiya tally showing that about 85 percent of Iran’s attacks have targeted Gulf countries...

....MORE 

That's the Palestinian Authority. al-Reeh is a member of Fatah.*

On March 17 we heard from Hamas, "Even Hamas tells Iranian regime to stop ‘targeting neighboring countries’". 
*From the European Council on Foreign Relations:

Mapping Palestinian Politics

Speaking of Diesel: "Oil Prices Drop as U.S. Delays Iran Strikes, but Supply Risks Keep Markets on Edge"

These folks, Mansfield Energy, are, I believe, the largest diesel distributors in the U.S.

They write market commentary for their customers that is a bit more insightful than that of the average scribbler.

March 23:

Oil markets moved lower at the start of the week after the United States signaled a temporary pause in military escalation with Iran, even as underlying supply risks across the Middle East remain unresolved. Brent crude fell as much as 14.5% intraday to a low near $96 per barrel before recovering to around $103, while prompt WTI futures dropped roughly $6 per barrel, trading near $91 after earlier losses. The pullback followed President Donald Trump’s decision to delay planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days after what he described as “very good and productive” discussions aimed at de-escalation.

The shift in sentiment comes after a weekend marked by escalating threats and heightened uncertainty across the region. Just a few days earlier, President Trump warned that the U.S. would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power facilities if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours. Iran responded with threats of retaliation, including potential strikes on regional power and water infrastructure and the deployment of naval mines across the Persian Gulf, raising the risk of prolonged disruptions to one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

While the delay in military action has eased immediate fears, flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained. The waterway typically handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, and current disruptions have already removed an estimated 7 to 10 million barrels per day from the market. Although limited vessel movement has resumed, particularly for select shipments such as Japanese and Indian-linked cargoes, hundreds of ships remain stalled, underscoring the fragility of global supply chains.

Governments and energy agencies are working on contingency measures. The International Energy Agency is actively consulting with countries in Europe and Asia on the potential release of additional strategic reserves if conditions worsen. In parallel, the U.S. Department of Energy is moving forward with a 45-million-barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a broader emergency supply effort. These actions are designed to stabilize markets, but officials have emphasized that stock releases alone cannot offset a prolonged disruption in Middle East flows.

Despite the recent price decline, forward-looking expectations remain elevated. Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their 2026 forecasts to $85 per barrel for Brent and $79 for WTI, reflecting expectations that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could persist longer than initially anticipated. Current projections assume flows remain significantly reduced for several weeks before gradually recovering, with additional pressure coming from the need to rebuild depleted inventories and reassess global spare capacity.

The broader impact is expected to extend beyond energy markets. Higher oil prices are projected to push global headline inflation higher over the next one to two months, with estimates suggesting an increase of up to 0.8 percentage points under baseline conditions, and potentially more under severe disruption scenarios. However, the effect on core inflation is expected to remain more limited....

 

....MUCH MORE 

 They also have a sizable natural gas business and post commentary on that industry as well:

Daily Natural Gas Newsletter

California Leads The Way (diesel above $7.00/gallon)

From GasBuddy: 

GasBuddy now counts six cities where average diesel prices are over $7 per gallon:
San Francisco, CA
San Rafel, CA
Napa, CA
Santa Rosa, CA
San Jose, CA
Oakland, CA

— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) March 22, 2026

And in Houston: "The energy A-list"

From the Houston Chronicle, March 23:

The energy A-list: Here’s are the big names speaking at CERAWeek 2026 in Houston and why it matters

The CERAWeek by S&P Global conference draws the energy industry’s A-list celebrities and top politicians to downtown Houston every March to discuss issues that have sweeping ramifications for Texas, the U.S., and the world.

In recent years, big names in tech have had a growing presence at the conference, as energy availability becomes a key chokepoint in the expansion of artificial intelligence. 

READ MORE: What to know about this year's 'Super Bowl of energy' in Houston

This year, visiting foreign dignitaries could draw greater interest, as geopolitical upheaval roils global oil markets. 

The Houston Chronicle will have reporters at the conference all week to report on discussions most impactful to the region and Texas. Here are some of the most anticipated speakers: 

Trump officials and other politicians
This year’s CERAWeek arrives not long after the Trump administration launched military attacks against Venezuela and then Iran, disrupting global energy markets and surging oil prices. Remarks from President Donald Trump’s cabinet members at the conference will be closely followed for any insight into the administration’s plans for the two countries.

The White House is also facing growing pressure on its bullish AI push, as voters blame rising electricity prices and other ills on the data center boom.

Top speakers include:

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright
• Interior Secretary Doug Burgum
• Lee Zeldin, Environmental Protection Agency administrator
• Jarrod Agen, executive director of Trump’s National Energy Dominance Council 
• John Kerry, former Secretary of State
• Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry
• U.S. Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, representing Houston’s 7th Congressional District
• Thomas Gleeson, Public Utility Commission of Texas chairman

Energy CEOs....

....MUCH MORE

I think Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser had to cancel but we'll look for him next year.

Meanwhile, In Iran...

Via Open Source Intel 

IRGC spokesman in English to Trump:

"Hey Trump, you are fired! You are familiar with this sentence.
Thank you for your attention to this matter."

🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/o1WILwnTEb

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 22, 2026

HT: The Jerusalem Post who write:

"Hey, Trump, you are fired,” Zolfaghari said. “You are familiar with this sentence. Thank you for your attention to this matter."

Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari mocked US President Donald Trump on Sunday, telling him, “You are fired.”.... 

"Coinbase Launches 24/7 Stock Trading For Tesla, Apple, Nvidia With 10X Leverage"

From Benzinga, March 20:

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) launched stock perpetual futures for eligible non-U.S. users offering 24/7 leveraged synthetic exposure to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and other Magnificent 7 stocks with up to 10x leverage.

The ‘Everything Exchange’ Expansion
Coinbase becomes one of the first major centralized venues to offer stock perpetual futures, a product that has gained traction on decentralized platforms with billions in daily trading volume.

The launch advances the company’s strategy of building an “Everything Exchange” where users can access crypto, traditional assets, and emerging markets in a single venue.

At launch, eligible customers can trade perpetual futures on Apple, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Nvidia, Meta (NASDAQ:META), and Tesla. ETF perpetual futures, including SPY and QQQ, are also available where permitted.

The contracts offer up to 10x leverage on single-name stocks and up to 20x leverage on ETF products, with settlement conducted in USDC on crypto rails. Coinbase said the products support cross-margining across perpetual futures and spot positions....

....MUCH MORE 

"US said planning weeks-long operation to reopen Hormuz Strait; IDF strikes Tehran overnight"

A couple of the headline stories at The Times of Israel, March 23: 

Israeli, US officials continue to tout possibility of regime change; Iran fires 10 missile salvos on Sunday, 1 projectile lands in Lebanon; Arrow 3 downs missile outside atmosphere

The United States is reportedly planning a weeks-long operation to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an Israeli report claimed Sunday, as Israeli and American officials continued to tout the potential fall of the Islamic Republic’s regime as a result of the escalating attacks.

Israel’s ambassador in the US, Yechiel Leiter, told CNN Sunday that the war must continue until the Islamic Republic’s regime is degraded to the extent that it has “no power” and the Iranian people can rise up and topple it.

“What we have to focus on now is degrading to the point where they have no power left in this regime. Hopefully, that will trigger this combustion point where the people are able to take charge of their own lives. Our focus has to be on degrading this regime to the point where they no longer pose a threat to us, to the region, to the world,” Leiter said.

The campaign would end, he contended, when “there is not an entity in Tehran that’s going to threaten the region.”

He said that such an outcome could come about by “this regime having a change of heart,” though he said that was “hard to imagine” and a popular uprising was more likely: “Probably, it’s going to take place because the Iranian people have had enough.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Related: "Netanyahu said frustrated that Mossad promises of Iran uprising have fallen short" 

And from Reuters via the ToI liveblog, March 23: 

Iran threatens to hit power plants in Israel, Gulf if its electricity sector is targeted 

Iran will retaliate to an attack on its electricity sector by targeting Israel’s power plants as well as power plants supplying US bases with electricity in regional countries, a statement by the Revolutionary Guards says.

The statement seemingly retracts earlier threats to desalination plants in the region, which are crucial for providing drinking water in Gulf countries.

“The lying … US President has claimed that the Revolutionary Guards intends to attack the water desalination plants and cause hardship to the people of the countries in the region,” the statement shared on state media says....

....MORE 

Times of Israel front page. 

"Iran says acting intelligence minister appointed, name to be announced later"

From Iran International, March 22: 

An acting intelligence minister was appointed immediately after the killing of Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib, a communications aide to President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday....

....MORE 

Also at Iran International, March 22: 

Can Iran’s power grid be knocked out? 

Tehran warns of plunging region into darkness after Trump’s Hormuz deadline 

Iran International front page. 

"As the world burns, Lloyd’s of London is missing in action"

Is it time for the center of gravity of the insurance business (and its £57.9bn gross premiums/£10.6 billion profit) to move west? The Lloyd's syndicates can stay in London, just move the money.

Miami is nice. 

From The Telegraph, March 20:

The insurance giant’s status as one of Britain’s pre-eminent financial institutions is under threat 

On the face of it, things couldn’t be rosier at Lloyd’s of London, the £50bn insurance behemoth that provides cover for everything from floods and wildfires to cyber attacks, terrorism and even top celebrities.

Annual profits are up by £1bn to a stonking £10.6bn, gross written premiums increased 4.2pc to £57.9bn last year and the market’s balance sheet is strong, with total capital and reserves jumping 5.7pc to £49.8bn.

In the mundane world of insurance, this apparently counts for “a firm foundation for the challenges and risks ahead”, Patrick Tiernan, the recently anointed chief executive, said.

Yet behind the somewhat cheery sound-bites, something is amiss. In its annual report published on Thursday morning, just hours after the Middle East was turned into a giant inferno, the crisis barely gets a mention.

Worse, Tiernan appears to be avoiding the mainstream media, having hand-picked a handful of newswires and specialist publications to speak to while shunning The Telegraph and its rivals. As the world burns, is its most important insurance market missing in action?

After all, this is the same business that has faced accusations of pricing ship owners out of the market by jacking up premiums at a time when cover has never been more critical.

These are serious, legitimate concerns that need to be properly addressed – is Lloyd’s open for business for shipping and marine insurance in the Middle East or not?

It’s fine for Sir Charles Roxburgh, the chairman, to enthuse in his preamble to the report about how his goal is “to fulfil our vision for Lloyd’s to be the world’s pre-eminent global marketplace for insurance risk”, but the test of that is during mega-crises like these.

Ditto, Tiernan’s breezy statement about Lloyd’s of London benefiting “from 337 years of lived experience”. “It has endured countless wars, multiple financial crises and at least four industrial revolutions,” he says.

But what is the position today regarding what some experts believe could prove to be a more serious economic crisis than the oil shock of 1973?

Lloyd’s of London’s annual report stretches to 172 pages, six of which are dedicated to climate-related financial disclosures, 11 to executive pay, while “purpose” gets a whole page of its own.

Yet the situation in the Middle East gets nothing more than a passing mention, and where it is dealt with it’s either in the context of “earthquakes” or “human consequences”. All of this is no doubt important but clients want to know what the commercial consequences are.

The publication of the report – just hours after Tehran’s targeting of the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas plant effectively turned the conflict from a military one into an economic one – was nothing more than unfortunate timing on Lloyd’s part, of course.

Nevertheless, it makes the failure to address the war all the more glaring. There isn’t even a mention of the Strait of Hormuz, the key waterway where the company at the heart of global maritime cover has faced criticism over cancelled policies and sharp price rises.

Lloyd’s of London will no doubt point to an interview that Roxburgh gave a week ago following an emergency meeting with the Chancellor where discussions were held about the part insurers could play in helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Yet his statement was too vague and non-committal to amount to much. “I reiterated Lloyd’s confidence in our marine insurance market, which has remained open and continues to support international trade and shipping during this period of heightened risk,” Roxburgh said....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also at the Guardian:

 Lloyd’s of London stresses it is still insuring shipping in strait of Hormuz

I think the answer is obvious, more cowbell coffee. 

"The $24 Trillion Payments War Europe Is Quietly Waging on Visa and Mastercard"

From European Business Magazine, March 21:

What’s happening? ECB President Christine Lagarde told Irish radio that Europe needs its own digital payment system “urgently,” warning that virtually all European card and mobile payments currently run through non-European infrastructure controlled by Visa, Mastercard, PayPal or Alipay. Days later, on 2 February, the European Payments Initiative (EPI) and the EuroPA Alliance signed a landmark agreement to build a pan-European interoperable payment network covering 130 million users across 13 countries. The system, built around the digital wallet Wero, aims to let Europeans pay and transfer money across borders without touching a single American network.

The Problem No One Thinks About

Every time a European taps a card, pays online or splits a bill with friends, the transaction flows through infrastructure owned and operated by American companies. Visa and Mastercard together process approximately $24 trillion in transactions annually. Card payments account for 56% of all cashless transactions in the EU. And the data — who bought what, where, when and for how much — leaves European jurisdiction every time.

“It’s important for us to have digital payment under our control,” Lagarde told The Pat Kenny Show. “Whether you use a card or whether you use a phone, typically it goes through Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Alipay. Where are all those coming from? Well, either the US or China.”

The host’s response — “I didn’t realise this” — captured the broader European blind spot. Most consumers have no idea that their payment data routinely exits the EU. In a geopolitical environment where Europe is scrambling to reduce dependence on the United States across defence, energy and trade, payments remain an overlooked vulnerability.

The lesson of Russia sharpened the urgency. When Western sanctions cut Russia off from Visa and Mastercard in 2022, the country’s domestic payments were immediately disrupted. European policymakers asked the obvious question: what would happen if the US decided — or was pressured — to restrict European access to those same networks?

Enter Wero....

....MUCH MORE 

Bad Timing: "Yara Pilbara Shutdown Halts Australia’s Largest Fertiliser Input Plant for Two Months"

From Canada's The Deep Dive, March 21:

A technical glitch has forced the closure of Yara Pilbara, Australia’s largest producer of ammonia, a critical input for urea fertilizer and mining explosives, for at least two months. The shutdown, which began this week, disrupts a key supply chain at a time when global ammonia trade is already strained by geopolitical conflicts.

The outage at the Pilbara facility, located in Western Australia, stems from a power outage that damaged critical systems, although specifics were not provided. Yara, a global leader in fertilizer production, has confirmed that repairs and safety checks will keep the plant offline until at least late May 2026. This closure impacts not only agricultural sectors reliant on urea for crop production but also mining operations in Australia that depend on ammonia for explosives.

The plant last year produced 850,000 tonnes of ammonia, while the second largest in the country, found near Perth, produced only 255,000 tonnes last year.

Compounding the issue roughly 25% of the world’s ammonia trade, and 43% of urea, is currently blocked due to the ongoing Iran war which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz. With global supplies already tight, the loss of Yara Pilbara’s output could drive up costs for farmers and miners alike....

....MORE 

Also at The Deep Dive March 21:

Canadians Slide To New Low In Happiness Index

"Trump Signals Endgame in Iran, Says Hormuz Security Will Fall on ‘Nations Who Use It’"

From gCaptain, March 20: 

President Donald Trump on Friday signaled that U.S. military objectives against Iran are nearing completion, outlining a sweeping set of goals that include the destruction of Tehran’s military capabilities while indicating the United States may step back from directly policing the Strait of Hormuz.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said U.S. operations have focused on “completely degrading Iranian missile capability,” destroying the country’s defense industrial base, and eliminating its navy and air force—while ensuring Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons.

But the most consequential signal for the shipping industry came in his comments on Hormuz.

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” Trump wrote, adding that the U.S. would assist if asked but suggested regional powers should take primary responsibility.....

*****

... Shipping Industry Faces Uncertainty as U.S. Role Comes Into Question 

Trump’s remarks land at a critical moment for global shipping, with commercial traffic through the Strait effectively collapsing amid ongoing attacks and security concerns. The suggestion that the U.S. may not directly secure the waterway raises fresh questions about how—and whether—traffic can safely resume.

Trump’s proposal seems to effectively shift responsibility to Gulf states and major energy consumers....

....MUCH MORE  

Semiconductors: The Helium Shortage Is No Laughing Matter

Well there goes our one and only helium joke: "That's funnier than three helium atoms; HeHeHe."* 

Three headlines at TipRanks:

March 18 - Helium Supply Risks Put Semiconductor Supply Chains Under Scrutiny 

March 18 - Helium Supply Risks Put Spotlight on Malaysian Semiconductor Operations 

March 19 - TSMC Stock (TSM) Wilts as Iranian Attacks Batter Helium Supply and Threaten Chip Production

*April 2013
Chemistry: Periodically, We Tell Element Jokes
Funnier than three helium atoms: HeHeHe. 

As reprised in 2018's "Venting about the Helium Market" along with a bunch of other back-links. Also 2021's ""The Race to Find ‘Green’ Helium" (figure it out, make yourself a billionaire)"

Of course the real money will be made in lunar helium-3. 

"Nvidia Finally Admits Why It Shelled Out $20 Billion For Groq" (and Senator Warren swings by) NVDA

From The Next Platform, March 17:

Back in late December, Nvidia did a $20 billion “acquihire” of most of the development team at Groq and licensed the technology underlying its LPU dataflow engines for doing AI inference. We expected for Nvidia to move fast to deploy the tensor streaming processors created by Jonathan Ross, the ex-Googler who created a fully-scheduled, programmable tensor processing unit after he left the search engine giant. When the GenAI boom took off, these were renamed Language Processing Units, but the architecture did not change. Now, Nvidia is working with Samsung to bring the third generation LP30 chips to market, which Nvidia co-founder and chief executive officer Jensen Huang said in his opening keynote presentation at the GTC 2026 conference would happen in the second half of this year, and very likely in the third quarter.

Nvidia is not wasting any time, and that is because it does not have time to waste. Groq was going to start getting traction in low latency inference, just as Cerebras Systems has and that SambaNova Systems can do given their focus on ultra-high bandwidth SRAM memory against more modest compute to have zippy inference across a large number of compute engines. Where speed matters, these system makers and the dozens of upstarts who are trying to tackle inference at scale are so many piranhas swarming towards a fat cow standing in the Amazon (the river, not the bookseller and cloud utility). So Nvidia had to moooooooove. . . . 

Hence, the dramatic $20 billion acquihire of Groq, which could not be an outright acquisition because that might take a year or two and might not pass muster with the world’s antitrust regulators. And hence its immediate absorption into the Vera-Rubin platform. Which arguably should be called the Vera-Rubin-Groq platform, given that Huang said during his keynote that low latency, premium priced token generation should represent somewhere on the order of 25 percent of the compute in an AI cluster.

Remember that Rubin CPX large context compute engine that Nvidia preview back in September 2025? The one based on a variant of the Rubin architecture and equipped with cheaper and more available GDDR7 graphics memory?

“We discovered a great idea,” Ian Buck, vice president of AI and HPC at Nvidia, said on a call ahead of GTC 2026 going over the systems announcements. “Integrating the LPU and LPX into our Rubin platform to optimize the decode. That's where we're focused right now, and we're excited to be bringing that to market.”

In other words, scratch Rubin CPX.

Huang stacked up what we presume is the “Rubin” R200 GPU accelerator beside what we presume was called the “Alan-3” Groq LP30 inference accelerator. One is a general purpose, dynamically scheduled compute engine that is pretty good at batching up lots of inferences and pipelining them through HBM stacked memory with reasonable latency and supporting many concurrent users. (That would be the GPU.) And the other is a rack or more of fairly modest, inference-specific, statically scheduled, deterministic compute engines that work in concert to support a small number of users – that number is likely one most of the time – and distribute model weights (not data) across their aggregate SRAM in such a way that the response time for token generation scales down as you add more machines. The GPU is a thresher, the LPU is a speed demon. They can work together with the Dynamo inference stack to provide a more balanced pareto curve for inference performance across a range of throughout and latency.

Here are the feeds and speeds of the R200 and the LP30 chips:....

....MUCH MORE 

 And from the office of Senator Elizabeth Warren, March 19:

Jensen Huang
President and Chief Executive Officer
NVIDIA Corporation
2788 San Tomas Expressway
Santa Clara, CA 95051 

Dear Mr. Huang: 

We write to request additional information regarding the terms of NVIDIA’s recent deal with Groq, an artificial intelligence (AI) chip startup and NVIDIA competitor, to assess the agreement’s implications for competition in the AI chip sector. On December 24, 2025, NVIDIA and Groq announced an agreement under which NVIDIA will pay Groq $20 billion to acquire a non-exclusive license for Groq’s inference chip design technology and hire many of Groq’s key employees, including its CEO and president.1 The deal will give NVIDIA “all of Groq’s assets,”2 and appears to be structured to evade scrutiny by antitrust regulators.3 We are concerned that this takeover could stifle competition, further entrenching NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI chip industry and ceding our technological leadership to China.

NVIDIA currently dominates the market for the powerful graphics processing units (GPUs) used for developing and deploying advanced AI models.4 NVIDIA controls roughly 90% of the market for high-end data center GPUs, with buyers forced to wait for supplies because enterprise demand far exceeds supply.5 As of the end of Q3 2025, NVIDIA also controlled 92% of the market for personal computer (PC) GPUs used for computationally-intensive tasks such as video games and hosting smaller AI models, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) controlling 7% and Intel possessing just 1% market share.6  

And competition in the narketplace has shrunk over time. AMD controlled 12% of the PC GPU market at the end of Q1 2024, 7 8% at the end of Q1 2025, 8 and just 7% as of the most recent quarter. 9 Because GPUs are essential for advanced AI development, NVIDIA effectively controls which companies can compete in AI, and the entire AI industry is held hostage to NVIDIA’s product decisions and priorities. This market dominance, combined with the recent explosion of interest and investment in AI, has seen NVIDIA reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion, making it the most valuable company in history.10....

....MUCH MORE (6 page PDF) 

Meanwhile, In Canada: Yes Virginia, Housing Prices Can Go Down

From the Toronto Star, March 17:

Condo crash ground zero: Prices in this Toronto suburb have tanked a staggering 57% 
Pickering condo prices have crashed by 57 per cent since February 2022. Vaughan, Markham and Milton have also seen worse losses than the city of Toronto.

Dina Thakkar envisioned one day gazing out at Lake Ontario from the window of her two-bedroom, 700-square-foot Pickering condo.

So, she paid extra for the view.

Unfortunately, she never got to enjoy it.

“It’s almost a nightmare,” she said. She and her husband have been trying to sell since last fall, calling their realtor constantly for updates.

“We are very much stressed.”

The entire GTA real estate sector has struggled over the last four years, after prices reached dizzying heights during the pandemic peak in February 2022.

While Toronto’s cratering condo market gets a lot of the attention, condos in the 905 have seen some of the biggest losses, with benchmark prices dropping over 30 per cent in several communities including Markham (40 per cent), Milton (36 per cent), and Vaughan (37 per cent), over the last four years, according to numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). That’s compared to 28 per cent for condos within the city of Toronto.

If anywhere is ground zero, it might be Pickering, the Durham city of just under 100,000 people that’s home to waterfront trails and a nuclear power plant. The benchmark price of a condo there has dropped a staggering 57 per cent from February 2022 to February 2026. 

The huge decline does make these homes more affordable for buyers. The catch is many of them are very small. They were aimed at investors, who have deserted the space, and demand has plummeted. That means developers are struggling to sell inventory in completed buildings, and have less incentive to break ground on new projects, leaving governments to fall behind on ambitious housing targets.

Owners like Thakkar, who purchased pre-construction units that didn’t exist yet, are caught up in the crash. 

Unlike some pre-construction buyers who planned to sell their contract for a profit before their condo was ever completed, Thakkar said she and her husband intended to live in their unit in the Universal City development, a new master-planned community of five condo towers near Highway 401 and the Pickering Go Station.

“The market was like — boom,” recalled the 46-year-old, who immigrated from Gujarat, on the west coast of India, in 2013.

The couple agreed to buy the condo for $587,000 in 2019. It was supposed to be completed a few years later. They put 20 per cent down to seal the deal.

The realtor who sold it told them by the time the unit was built it would be worth close to $1 million, Thakkar said. 

Indeed, in February 2022 the benchmark price for a condo in Pickering was over $1.1 million, per TRREB, with 2,359 new condos sold in the GTA that January, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD)....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also:

February 17 - "Canadian Housing Market Faces Years-Long Price Decline, BMO Economist Warns" 
Again we ask: Where did all the drug money go?*

*Previously:

April 2024 - "Amid Canada’s Huge Immigration Surge, Population Growth Hits 3.2%, Fuels 10% Rent Inflation, even as Home Prices Drop"  

August 2025 - Canadian Condo Crash

I wonder where all the drug money went? Canada used to be swimming in the stuff, from the B.C. bud crowd in Vancouver to the Fentanyl cowboys across the plains to Toronto to the old skool Mafias in Ottawa and Montreal. See for example "The Montreal Mafia Murders: Blood, Gore, Cannolis, and Hockey Bags" or at Sky News: "Mafia in Canada: How the ’Ndrangheta built a Toronto empire". 

September 2025 -  Meanwhile In Canada: "No One Wants to Buy a Condo"

"Iran ready to help passage of Japan ships in Strait of Hormuz: Araghchi"

When the headlines eventually turn positive the reaction in equity markets will be a sight to behold, maybe ten, maybe fifteen percent upside in a matter of days. And maybe 20% to 25% in weeks. 

It almost seems the whole world is waiting for a reason to buy stuff that has been knocked down in price. 

That said, this news isn't big enough to be the trigger but is something to be aware of underneath the doom and gloom. 

From Tokyo's Kyodo News Agency, March 21:

TEHRAN - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Tehran is ready to facilitate the passage of Japanese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy shipments, and that negotiations with Japan on the issue are ongoing.

"We have not closed the strait. It is open," Araghchi said in a telephone interview with Kyodo News on Friday. He also stressed that Iran, which was attacked by the United States and Israel in late February, is seeking "not a cease-fire, but a complete, comprehensive and lasting end to the war."

Araghchi said Iran has not closed the strategic waterway but has imposed restrictions on vessels belonging to countries involved in attacks against Iran, while offering assistance to others amid heightened security concerns.

He added that Iran is prepared to ensure safe passage for countries such as Japan if they coordinate with Tehran.

Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90 percent of its crude oil imports, most of which travel through the strait.....

....MUCH MORE 

"Yemen's Houthis weigh Bab al-Mandab blockade to back Iran, official says"

Ah, there they are. We had been wondering why the Houthis hadn't been heard from.

From Chinese state-owned international broadcaster, CGTN, March 20:

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group is weighing the possibility of blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait to vessels from nations it accuses of aggression against its allies in the "axis of resistance," RIA Novosti reported on Friday.

Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, said that any closure would be limited to targeting ships linked to countries engaged in hostilities against Iran, Lebanon, Palestine or Iraq.

The group is examining various courses of action to bolster Iran amid its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, al-Bukhaiti added.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait, a strategic chokepoint linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, serves as a vital corridor for global trade, particularly oil and gas shipments between Europe and Asia.

Since the war broke out late last month and spread across the Middle East, the Houthis have so far limited themselves to threats and preparations. Meanwhile other "axis of resistance" groups like Hezbollah and Iraqi militias have launched attacks on Israel and US positions in a show of solidarity with Iran.

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi has said his group is ready to act and is coordinating with Iran. The group describes a possible Bab al-Mandab blockade as a key option to support Tehran and pressure the West.

A Houthi blockade of the narrow waterway would force oil and trade vessels to reroute around Africa, raising shipping costs, fuel prices and inflation worldwide while deepening an oil crisis following Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. For the US, it would mean higher domestic energy costs and greater economic strain; globally it would send oil prices soaring and slow growth....

....MORE 

Outro, March 9 - "But what of the Houthis?"  

And March 13 - 

But what of Iran's BFFs, the Houthis? 

 

The Saudi East -West pipeline was a strategic necessity, capable of 7mm Bbl/day, but the Houthis can still target ships approaching or departing through the Bab-al-Mandeb connecting the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Meaning everything would have to move north through the Suez canal which limits the size of the tankers to 1mm Bbl per i.e the SuezMax ships:

Where this gets doubly interesting is the fact that one of only two Chinese overseas military bases (the other being on the west coast of Cambodia) is parked at the approaches to the Red Sea and that very same Bab al-Mandab. From December 2025's ""How China Built a Network of Ports Encircling the Globe"": 

As we've seen—most recently with Israel's Mossad in Iran and Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb in Russia—tractor-trailers and shipping containers make dandy places to hide your weapons of war. Also handy for transporting same. More after the jump....

....February 2024 -  "Red Sea Rivalries"

The most amazing thing that has been pointed out over the last couple months is that China's base on Djibouti's Gulf of Aden coast, at the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into the Red Sea, gives them the perfect location to monitor Houthi action and American reaction:

—China Officially Sets Up Its First Overseas Base in Djibouti, The Diplomat

From Phenomenal World, February 15....

July 2025 - Indonesia/Malaysia/Singapore: "From Gallipoli to the Strait of Malacca: Why maritime choke points still decide the fate of nations"

So Mr. Risk Manager, what's your 2027 plan? 

"Oh So We’re Actually Going to Get Rid of Quarterly Reporting After All Huh"

From the audit mavens at Going Concern, March 18:

ICYMI: Last September, President Trump truthed about quarterly reporting at 8 in the morning in what seemed like little more than deep thoughts one has while sitting on the can at that hour: 

Subject to SEC Approval, Companies and Corporations should no longer be forced to “Report” on a quarterly basis (Quarterly Reporting!), but rather to Report on a “Six (6) Month Basis.” This will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies. Did you ever hear the statement that, “China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis???” Not good!!!

This is what we had to say about it at the time:

President Trump’s Latest Shower Thought Is to Eliminate Quarterly Reporting 

Then we promptly forgot about it because it didn’t seem like the kind of thing that would go anywhere. Oops....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at Going Concern:

KPMG Brings Cheating Into the AI Age By Using AI to Cheat on AI Exams 

Also, also at Going Concern, they also cover tax preparation marketing:

Tax Prep But Make It Catchy

I should do some video marketing.

"Arm’s stock could rocket 50% as Wall Street wakes up to a ‘game-changing’ trend, analyst says"

There's a reason Nvidia really, really wanted to buy Arm. 

From MarketWatch, March 20:

Arm increasingly benefits from central processing units that are becoming ‘indispensable’ in AI data centers 

Wall Street isn’t giving Arm Holdings enough credit for a big business transformation, according to an analyst.  

Arm ARM +3.62%, a chip designer, has been broadening well beyond smartphones and now stands to capitalize even more on the booming market for server central processing units, HSBC’s Frank Lee wrote in a note to clients.

That “game-changing” transition is “still being undervalued by the market,” Lee argued, but he sees room for Arm’s stock to climb more than 50% as the company’s momentum becomes better understood. It’s up 3.9% in Friday morning action, bringing its year-to-date gains to about 23%. 

Lee double-upgraded Arm’s stock on Friday, lifting his rating to buy from reduce and meaningfully boosting his price target to $205 from $90. He wrote that agentic artificial intelligence will spur even greater demand for CPUs....

....MUCH MORE 

"Iran floats Hormuz transit tolls as Persian Gulf states warn of military response"

 From Iran International, March 19:

Iran is considering charging transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a lawmaker said on Thursday, as officials in Tehran stepped up rhetoric over the strategic waterway after this week’s attacks on energy sites in the Persian Gulf.

Somayeh Rafiei said lawmakers are pursuing a bill under which countries using the strait for shipping, energy transit and food supplies would be required to pay tolls and taxes to Iran, framing it as compensation for providing security along the route.

“In the event that the Strait of Hormuz is used as a secure route for ship traffic, energy transit and food supply, countries will be required to pay tolls and taxes to the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Rafiei said.

She also said countries should pay what she described as a security tax in return for Iran maintaining regional security.

The proposal came as senior Iranian officials suggested the war could be used to redefine Tehran’s position in the waterway after the conflict ends.

Mohammad Mokhber said one of the most important opportunities created by the war was the possibility of reshaping Iran’s role in the Strait of Hormuz.

“After the imposed war, by defining a new regime for the Strait of Hormuz, Iran will move from being under sanctions to a powerful position in the region and the world,” Mokhber said.

He added: “By using the strategic position of the Strait of Hormuz, we can sanction them and not allow their ships to pass through this waterway.”....

....MUCH MORE 

Related, from a 2015 post:

Old school rent extraction device

"The standard toll for an average ship in 1241 was 8 denari (1 denarus equaled 0.68 grams of silver)"

—TOLLING THE RHINE in 1254:  COMPLEMENTARY  MONOPOLY REVISITED

Capital Markets: "USD Comes Back Bid after Yesterday's Exaggerated Slide"

From Marc to Market:

The market seemed to overreact to the central bank meetings this week. The market heard Fed Chair Powell as more hawkish than the FOMC statement and took the dollar sharply higher. Yesterday, it overreacted to the Bank of England and European Central Banks and sold the greenback aggressively. The swaps market is discounting three rate hikes this year by the ECB and BOE, and about three basis points of tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Still, after yesterday’s sell-off the dollar has bounced back. The fog of war seems to contribute to the desire for short-term market participants not wanting to be short dollars into the weekend. Even though the US and Israel say that they will not strike Iranian oil infrastructure, there is little sign of de-escalation and yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Bessent made a reference to the possibility that Kharg Island could be taken over by the US. Adding to the mix is today’s “triple-witching” that see a relatively large, $5.7 trillion of options on individual stocks, indices and exchange-traded funds expire. This comes amid a further sell-off in stocks and bonds....

....MUCH MORE  

"German court blocks researcher’s attempt to access Angela Merkel files held in Stasi archives"

From ReMix News, March 16:

A Berlin court ruled that strict privacy protections governing the Stasi archives prevent the release of any files mentioning the former German chancellor 

A Berlin court has rejected a legal bid to obtain files relating to former German Chancellor Angela Merkel from the archives of East Germany’s secret police, ruling that the request does not meet the strict legal conditions governing the release of such records.

The lawsuit was filed by Marcel Luthe, chairman of the Good Governance Union, who argued that he required access to documents mentioning Merkel for a research project examining her conduct during the final years of the German Democratic Republic.

As reported by the Berliner Zeitung, the Berlin Administrative Court dismissed the claim and ordered Luthe to cover approximately €20,000 in legal costs.

In delivering the oral reasoning for the ruling, presiding judge Jens Tegtmeier said the Stasi Records Act does not grant a general right to inspect files about any individual. Instead, the law allows disclosure only under limited circumstances, such as if the person concerned is proven to have collaborated with East Germany or if they were already a public figure at the time the documents were created. According to the court, neither condition applies in Merkel’s case.

The Stasi records themselves are a vast collection of documents created by the Ministry for State Security, the secret police of the former East German communist regime. Before the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the Stasi built one of the most extensive domestic surveillance systems in the world, maintaining millions of files on citizens suspected of political dissent or contact with the West. The archives include informant reports, surveillance notes, photographs, correspondence, and other material gathered through the agency’s network of officers and unofficial collaborators.

After German reunification, these records were preserved and placed under special legal protection. Individuals have the right to view files compiled about them, but access to documents concerning third parties is tightly restricted in order to protect personal privacy.

Luthe did not claim that Merkel had been a Stasi informant, but argued that questions remained about her activities in the late East German period, which justified access to the records.

Among the issues raised in court was an incident in which prohibited Solidarity movement material was reportedly discovered by East German border authorities when Merkel returned from a trip to Poland. Luthe’s legal team argued that similar cases had often resulted in serious consequences, raising questions about why the young Merkel was not punished.

The lawsuit also highlighted Merkel’s role at the Central Institute for Physical Chemistry in East Germany, where she served as Free German Youth (FDJ) secretary, the official communist youth organization of the former East German state.

In addition, Luthe’s representatives argued that Merkel’s role as spokesperson for the reform-era Democratic Awakening party in 1990 could qualify her as a “person of contemporary history,” a legal category that allows broader access to archival material.

The court rejected these arguments, suggesting Merkel was, if anything, only a “minor” political figure at that time and that disclosing her surveillance documents would not be justified. He also said there was no concrete evidence that Merkel had benefited from the Stasi or held a sufficiently prominent public role before German reunification....

....MUCH MORE 

Years ago, back during her time as Bundeskanzler, I recall seeing that she had gone through her files, something I believe was her right as a subject of the file. 

And, as noted in the outro from 2025's "Putin's KGB Masterstroke: Fracking Banned in Europe":

Just yesterday I was considering the old quip "You can take the girl out of East Germany but you can't take East Germany out of the girl" as our intro to "Angela Merkel ‘covered up report blaming China for Covid’" but because it is so difficult to definitively say she was working for the Russians, decided against it.

What you can say is she was probably the second worst Chancellor in German history and that it is hard to think of what she would have done differently, economically and socially had she been driven by that 'ol ostalgie.

As for Schroeder, it seems he was only about the euros (rubles, maybe Deutsche Marks too). From the introduction to 2021's "Ex-Chancellor Schroeder: Berlin Will ‘Cut the Branch It Sits On’ If It Halts Nord Stream 2’s Construction":

Before we get into the story from Russia's Sputnik I should probably reprise a note from a few years ago:

We've pointed out a few times:

...As the kids say: Find someone to look at you the way Putin looks at Gerhard Schröder.

They also hug a lot.
 A lot.

Herr Schröder was Germany's Chancellor before Mutti came in.
Gazprom has paid him a lot of money.

So I am left with, as Lieutenant Columbo would say, "just one more thing":  

What was the real reason Merkel was in Wuhan in September 2019?