Saturday, June 7, 2025

"How to Hide a 350-Foot Megayacht"

News you may, or may not, be able to use. 

From the New York Times Magazine, May 27:

Russian oligarchs use the offshore system to shield their luxury assets. The Trump administration is ending an effort to find and seize them. 

Among all the radical policy shifts carried out during President Trump’s first 100 days, perhaps the most astonishing was his reorientation of America’s posture toward Russia. Support for Ukraine in the ongoing war was long a bipartisan article of faith, but Trump shattered that consensus almost immediately, first by ending the isolation of President Vladimir V. Putin with a direct phone call, and then with high-level talks in Saudi Arabia that cut Kyiv out entirely. The gravity of the change was made clear at the Munich Security Conference, where Vice President JD Vance took the stage to lecture European allies on their suppression of far-right parties — parties that, not coincidentally, have been sympathetic to or even explicitly aligned with Russia. By the time that Trump and Vance had a made-for-TV showdown with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in the Oval Office in late February, it was clear that Russo-American relations had entered a new and cozier era.

Amid the fracas, it would have been easy to miss two lines, buried on the fourth page of a Justice Department memo, circulated two weeks into Trump’s second term: An interagency task force, colorfully named KleptoCapture, would be disbanded. Though KleptoCapture was hardly a household name, its demise was portentous — it indicated the administration’s unwillingness to fight the financial systems that not only allow Kremlin allies to disguise their wealth but also enable international drug cartels to operate with impunity, corrupt officials to launder money from bribes into luxury real estate and the ultrawealthy to avoid paying taxes.

President Joseph R. Biden Jr. himself announced the creation of the force in his 2022 State of the Union address, just one week after Russian tanks started streaming across the border toward Kyiv. For nearly a decade, the United States had been steadily issuing sanctions against a raft of wealthy Russians with close financial and political ties to the Kremlin. Now the task force’s most ambitious goal was to confiscate their wealth, sell their assets and, whenever possible, send the profits to Ukraine. “We are joining with our European allies to find and seize your yachts, your luxury apartments, your private jets,” Biden declared, in a line that became something of an informal slogan. “We are coming for your ill-begotten gains.”

Andrew Adams, a prosecutor in the Southern District of New York who specialized in money-laundering investigations, was preparing to start a new job in the private sector when he got a call asking him if he wanted to lead the task force. He was given 90 minutes to decide. He said yes. Within 48 hours, Adams left New York for Washington, where he was handed the first of five cellphones, assigned an office and a laptop and introduced to his new colleagues in what he described as a succession of rapid-fire “‘West Wing’-style walk-and-talk” chats as he shuttled from room to room. Soon he was helping draft new laws to expand the government’s power to sell forfeited property and redirect the proceeds to Kyiv.

KleptoCapture’s basic concept was simple enough, but carrying it out would not be so straightforward. Once Adams and his team identified the yachts, luxury apartments and private jets of Russian billionaires, they would have to build cases to seize them. At a minimum, that meant proving who their owners were, which was no easy task. Practically every one of these assets existed in a byzantine realm known as the offshore financial system, where questions as simple as who owns what are obscured within labyrinths of shell companies, anonymous trusts and other legal structures. KleptoCapture was something new and ambitious, a serious effort to break through the offshore system and crack down on some of its most prolific clients.

Prosecutors would be facing off against some of the world’s wealthiest people — those with practically limitless resources at their disposal and legions of wealth managers, accountants and lawyers at their command. “As a prosecutor, you’re boxing with a blindfold on,” Adams told me. The task force’s work would show that these defenses could be breached much more quickly and efficiently than many assumed, provided that enough political will was brought to bear.

Though it’s often called a system, the offshore world is really more of an archipelago — a constellation of territories and nations operating with the same general aim of helping wealthy people move and hide their money. This world encompasses places as diverse as Hong Kong, Dubai, the Isle of Man, South Dakota and Curaçao and includes not only notorious tax havens like Switzerland and the Cayman Islands but also institutions and jurisdictions in the hearts of the countries that usually rank highest in global transparency indexes.

The system’s roots lie in the regulation-dodging behavior of banks and currency traders, particularly after World War II, as well as the innovations of mobsters and fraudsters who found in small island nations a perfect conduit for dirty cash. Wherever it exists, the offshore system’s basic mechanism is essentially the same: Set up a company — or another entity, like a trust — and then put someone else’s name on the paperwork. This company, often layered on other companies in similarly opaque jurisdictions, can then be used to avoid paying taxes, debts or fines. Even if the authorities do find out about it, getting their hands on the assets will be so time-consuming and expensive that they probably won’t bother.

Few countries have been as intimately intertwined with this system as Russia. The men who grew rich from the fire sale of state assets after the Soviet Union’s collapse saw in offshore havens a means of keeping their newfound wealth out of the reach of capricious authorities. By the late 1990s, these newly minted “oligarchs” were using shell companies to help funnel as much as $2 billion out of the country a month.

A hallmark of Putin’s early presidency was that he established his dominance over the oligarchs, targeting a number of them with criminal prosecution. But rather than sever Russia from the offshore system, he recast it as a dimension of state power. Anonymous companies have been used to disguise the fortunes of Putin’s friends and family, bankroll Europe’s far right, make payments to sympathetic journalists and funnel cash to pro-Russian politicians around the world, including in Ukraine. A 2017 paper estimated that as much as 60 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product might be held in tax havens, six times the global average.

Ukraine’s elite, it’s worth noting, are similarly prolific users of the offshore system. The Pandora Papers, a 2021 leak of nearly 12 million financial documents, showed that Zelensky himself, along with his partners in a television production company, were beneficiaries of a network of offshore firms, some of which were used to buy upscale London property.

A central paradox of the offshore system is that its services are available to essentially anyone with enough money — meaning that, even as it benefits your friends, it can also empower your enemies. A nation’s corporations and ultrawealthy citizens can use the system to minimize their tax bills and funnel dark money into campaign donations for politicians who then ensure that the system remains intact. On the other side of the ledger, rivals of that same country’s government can use the system to dodge sanctions, fund proxies and launder illicit money....

....MUCH MORE 

Friday, June 6, 2025

Whale Fall: When A Whale Dies

From Atmos, May 28:

In Death, New Life: The Science And Symbolism of a Whale Fall

When a whale dies, its body creates a new mini ecosystem on the ocean floor—a process full of biological and poetic lessons for those willing to learn them.

“There is no end

To what a living world

Will demand of you.”

—Octavia E. Butler

When a whale dies, its massive body sinks. This colossal creature—an enormous, graceful mammoth of the sea—tumbles, sways, and ultimately free-falls to the ocean floor. The whale’s descent, spanning the vast gulf between the surface and the abyss, is a kind of miracle, bridging two worlds: the illuminated surface and the shadowy underworld.

There is so much we don’t know about the deep ocean, but what we do know is astonishing. The ocean’s deepest point extends approximately 36,000 feet below the surface. Beyond 600 feet, light no longer penetrates, making photosynthesis impossible, yet 98% of marine life resides on or near the sea floor. Life at these depths depends almost entirely on “marine snow”—organic matter drifting down from the ocean’s upper layers.

When a whale sinks to the seabed, it sets off an extraordinary chain of events. A single whale fall can blanket an area of 50 square meters, roughly 538 square feet, on the ocean floor, explained Dr. Craig Smith, a professor at the University of Hawaii and a leading expert on whale falls. In that single moment, it delivers a bounty of food equivalent to what small particles would provide over 200 to 2,000 years.

It’s an enormous input of organic matter that sticks around for centuries. “We found bones in the middle of the Pacific from whales that have been extinct for over 100,000 years,” Smith said....

....MUCH MORE 

Our interest in whales is usually a bit less poetic: whale dung. And how to make some money off the sea scat, being that it is a way to sequester carbon.

If interested see:
Cetacean dung: we track it so you don't have to.

And more generally:

"Singapore’s Private Tutoring Boom Reveals the Hidden Cost of Success"

As noted in the intro to 2018's "Dyson chooses Singapore for first electric car plant":

I like Singapore although it is a bit authoritarian.
The people are bright, usually the highest average I.Q. in the world, sometimes #2 to Hong Kong.
In the case of Singapore the I.Q. thing is especially interesting as their average is higher than that of any of the genetic pools the city-state draws from: the Chinese, Malay and Indian.

As a Malaysian Chinese businessman I know has told me, "We should never have let Singapore get away."

Another back-and-forth with Hong Kong is income/wealth. HK has more billionaires but Singapore has a higher average income.
And then there are the Gurkhas. More after the jump....
 

From Bloomberg, June 6:

The pressure to pass exams has turned private tutoring into a $1.4 billion industry in Singapore, but the same pressure risks impacting students’ mental health. 

Three minutes was all Leshane Lim gave herself to scarf down food as she rushed between private tutoring classes. In the midst of school-entry examinations, the then 16-year-old Singaporean was cramming feverishly, scheduling three after-hours sessions every day, back to back. With her options for future schools and ultimately her career path on the line, the stakes seemed high.

“I used to think it was the end of the world,” said Lim, now 18. “I put myself in that position because I wanted to do well.”

It’s a common story in Singapore, where parents spent S$1.8 billion ($1.4 billion) in 2023 on private tutoring, up almost 30% from 2018, according to government data. That investment — among the highest per capita spends in the world — is paying off, with Singaporean schoolchildren scoring significantly higher on average in mathematics, reading and science than all other countries in a global benchmarking study.

But there are concerns that Singapore’s competitive education system and the high premium society places on academic success are taking a toll on young people’s emotional health. Studies show that Singaporean students are more likely than their OECD peers to feel very anxious before a test and express a greater fear of failure.

Common complaints among students who attend many tuition classes are chronic stress and a lack of sleep, according to Rebecca Chan, a lecturer at Singapore’s National Institute of Education who specializes in psychology and child development.

“Children need time for themselves, not to be pushed along to classes one after another,” she said.

The private tutoring industry, which first gained prominence in East Asia, is growing rapidly across the world. It will be worth $171 billion by the end of 2028, up from $111 billion in 2023, according to Unesco. The United Nations body is concerned that so-called shadow education exacerbates social inequalities because wealthier households have greater access to private tutors.

In North America, parents are expected to spend $44.9 billion on private tutoring this year, swelling to $61.1 billion by 2030, according to Global Industry Analysts. The industry continues to grow in China and South Korea, despite government efforts to rein it in....

....MUCH MORE  

News You Can Use: "How to Find Ancient Assyrian Cities Using Economics"

From Maximum Progress, May 23:

The coolest trade econ paper I know 

Trade, Merchants, and the Lost Cities of the Bronze Age is an economics paper published in the QJE in 2019 and written as a collaboration between three economists (Thomas Chaney, Kerem Coşar, Ali Hortaçsu) and a historian of ancient Assyria, Gojko Barjamovic.

The idea of this paper is to use mentions of trade on Assyrian clay tablets from nearly four thousand years ago to estimate the size and location of ancient Assyrian cities, even those whose true location is unknown. They build a model that accurately recreates the location of known cities and makes predictions for the locations of lost cities that often line up with active archaeological sites, the best-guesses of historians, and sometimes favor the guesses of some historians over others.

The authors also find evidence for extremely long-term persistence of the distance elasticity of trade as well as city size and location. The predicted size of ancient Assyrian cities in their model correlates strongly with the size of their closest modern counterparts and the costs of distance to trade seem to be the same on bronze age wagon-roads as they are on modern Turkish highways.

Data
The data for this paper comes from the ancient Hittite city of Kaneš, now known as the archaeological site of Kültepe, nestled in the hills of eastern-central Turkey.

Around 1900 BCE, this city was a flourishing entrepot. Despite being deep within Hittite territory, the economic activity of the city was dominated by a community of Assyrian expatriate traders with connections to the powerful city state of Assur, near modern day Mosul in Iraq. So important was this city to Assyrian trade that it hosted an Assyrian court that adjudicated disputes between merchants....

....MUCH MORE 

We have a few posts on the Assyrians but most of our Bronze Age posting has been on the Hittites, e.g.

"The Hittites Lived in Interesting Times"

You never know when the flight attendant is going to get on the speaker and ask "Does anyone onboard know anything about the Hittites?"
And should that time come, you will be ready
Probably not related though similarly ancient:
Did Dutch Hordes Kill off the Early Britons Who Started Stonehenge and Thereby Create the Anti-European Zeitgeist That Led To Brexit 4500 Years Later?
 

Some Good News Out Of California: The High-Speed Rail Line To Las Vegas

From Bloomberg, June 5:

Next Stop: Rancho Cucamonga! 
As Brightline advances its $12 billion plan to link Southern California and Las Vegas with bullet trains, this LA suburb sees a shot at urban reinvention. 

Rancho Cucamonga, about 40 miles east of Los Angeles in California’s Inland Empire, was made by the automobile. After Interstate 15 opened here in the 1960s, this rural expanse of citrus orchards and vineyards transformed into a commuter town and logistics hub. Families flocked to the single-family homes that replaced farmland, while companies like Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling, flavor maker T. Hasegawa, Frito-Lay, and Amphastar Pharmaceuticals exploited its strategic location at the confluence of three major freeways and the Ontario International Airport.

Now this car-based city may be remade by the train. The private rail company Brightline has broken ground on a high-speed rail line between Las Vegas and Southern California, making Rancho Cucamonga the western terminus of its $12 billion Brightline West project. In a full-circle moment, the city was chosen because of its location along the I-15 freeway, in the median of which the majority of the 218-mile track will run.

If all goes according to plan, the first trains will roll into town in 2028. The city believes it can leverage its new high-speed rail station — and the millions of riders that will potentially pass through it — to build the kind of transit-oriented urban core that towns in postwar Southern California have historically struggled to cultivate.

“There’s no precedent in the United States for this,” said Matt Burris, Rancho Cucamonga’s deputy city manager, of high-speed rail’s transformative potential.

California has another, more well-known high-speed rail project — a politically fraught effort to connect San Francisco and Los Angeles via a 520-mile route through the San Joaquin Valley. Construction has been underway for a decade, and the first section isn’t likely to open until 2030 at the earliest. That puts Rancho Cucamonga on track to become America’s first bullet-train hub, bringing a host of changes to this low-slung enclave of 175,000 residents located in the foothills of San Gabriel Mountains.

An unincorporated community until 1977, the city never developed a proper downtown, but the Brightline station could be the catalyst for one. “When it became clear to us that Brightline was coming, we came up with a specific plan for the whole area,” said John Gillison, Rancho Cucamonga’s city manager....

....Station to Station
Tens of millions of cars drive between LA and Las Vegas every year. Most pass by Rancho Cucamonga on their way — the car trip takes a little under 3.5 hours with no traffic. Brightline West’s train, which should be able to hit speeds of 200 miles per hour, will take just over two. A 2020 study estimated that 5 million car trips between LA and Las Vegas would convert to rail passengers, although more recently Brightline put that number at 3 million, with an additional 2 million passengers per year choosing the train instead of a flight....

....MUCH MORE 

It's a really good idea to put high-speed rail where people want to go.

Previously on Brightline (East and West):

The U.S. Has High-Speed Rail

It's not as fast as the trains in France, and about the same speed as Japan's Tokyo - Osaka run, but it is quicker than California's.*

From ConstructionDive, June 22:

Brightline’s $5B Orlando high-speed rail extension complete 

"Faster trains to begin carrying passengers as Amtrak’s monopoly falls"

"How Much Energy Does It Take To Think?"

From Quanta Magazine, June 4:

Studies of neural metabolism reveal our brain’s effort to keep us alive and the evolutionary constraints that sculpted our most complex organ.  

You’ve just gotten home from an exhausting day. All you want to do is put your feet up and zone out to whatever is on television. Though the inactivity may feel like a well-earned rest, your brain is not just chilling. In fact, it is using nearly as much energy as it did during your stressful activity, according to recent research.

Sharna Jamadar, a neuroscientist at Monash University in Australia, and her colleagues reviewed research from her lab and others around the world to estimate the metabolic cost of cognition— that is, how much energy it takes to power the human brain. Surprisingly, they concluded that effortful, goal-directed tasks use only 5% more energy than restful brain activity. In other words, we use our brain just a small fraction more when engaging in focused cognition than when the engine is idling.

It often feels as though we allocate our mental energy through strenuous attention and focus. But the new research builds on a growing understanding that the majority of the brain’s function goes to maintenance. While many neuroscientists have historically focused on active, outward cognition, such as attention, problem-solving, working memory and decision-making, it’s becoming clear that beneath the surface, our background processing is a hidden hive of activity. Our brains regulate our bodies’ key physiological systems, allocating resources where they’re needed as we consciously and subconsciously react to the demands of our ever-changing environments.

“There is this sentiment that the brain is for thinking,” said Jordan Theriault, a neuroscientist at Northeastern University who was not involved in the new analysis. “Where, metabolically, [the brain’s function is] mostly spent on managing your body, regulating and coordinating between organs, managing this expensive system which it’s attached to, and navigating a complicated external environment.”

The brain is not purely a cognition machine, but an object sculpted by evolution — and therefore constrained by the tight energy budget of a biological system. Thinking may make you feel tired, then, not because you are out of energy, but because you have evolved to preserve resources. This study of neural metabolism, when tied to research on the dynamics of the brain’s electrical firing, points to the competing evolutionary forces that explain the limitations, scope and efficiencies of our cognitive capabilities.

The Cost of a Predictive Engine 
The human brain is incredibly expensive to run. At roughly 2% of body weight, the organ gorges on 20% of our body’s energetic resources. “It’s hugely metabolically demanding,” Jamadar said. For infants, that number is closer to 50%.

The brain’s energy comes in the form of the molecule adenosine triphosphate (ATP), which cells make from glucose and oxygen. A tremendous expanse of thin capillaries — an estimated 400 miles of vascular wiring — weaves through brain tissue to carry glucose- and oxygen-rich blood to neurons and other brain cells. Once synthesized within cells, ATP powers communication between neurons, which enact the brain’s functions. Neurons carry electrical signals to their synapses, which allow the cells to exchange molecular messages; the strength of a signal determines whether they will release molecules (or “fire”). If they do, that molecular signal determines whether the next neuron will pass on the message, and so on. Maintaining what are known as membrane potentials — stable voltages across a neuron’s membrane that ensure that the cell is primed to fire when called upon — is known to account for at least half of the brain’s total energy budget....

....MUCH MORE 

"Nvidia Preparing To Reenter China Market, Supplier Says" (NVDA)

From Investor's Business Daily, June 5:

Nvidia (NVDA) reportedly is preparing to give the China market another go after the Trump administration blocked sales of its H20 processor there in early April. Nvidia stock fell on Thursday as the report was disputed.

Shenzhen, China-based ZJK Industrial (ZJK) announced that it is ramping up production to meet growing demand for "Nvidia's B40 project."

The B40 chip is a customized AI accelerator designed specifically for the Chinese market, ZJK said in a since-retracted news release. It is based on Nvidia's Blackwell architecture and targets the mid-to-high-end market segment, with mass production planned to start as early as this month, ZJK said.

In a statement, Nvidia said it is still locked out of China's AI data center market. It did not comment on the B40, a product the company has not announced.

"We are still evaluating our limited options. Until we settle on a new product design and receive approval from the U.S. government, we are effectively foreclosed from China's $50 billion data center market," an Nvidia spokesperson said....

....MUCH MORE, including IBD chartology. 

The stock is up $2.78 at $142.77

Recently:

June 3 - "Why Nvidia Can’t Just Quit China" (NVDA)

"Concern grows over whether Hollywood's film and TV industry can survive in California"

Well, they had a good run.

From CBS News, May 31:

Los Angeles — For years, Phil Mangano made a good living as a film and television editor in Los Angeles.

"It was just job after job after job," Mangano told CBS News. "…Very consistent work."

But after Hollywood writers and actors went on monthslong strikes in 2023, production ground to a halt. 

California lost roughly 40,000 film and tv jobs that year alone, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

"When that finally settled, we were like, OK, great, things will come back," Mangano said. "And there has been no significant increase in job opportunities."

Since its peak in 2021, television production in the greater Los Angeles area has decreased by 58%, according to the nonprofit group FilmLA, which handles film permitting for the city and county of Los Angeles. The number of shoot days for television fell from 18,560 in 2021 to 7,716 in 2024.

And in the first quarter of 2025, on-location production in L.A. declined by 22.4% from the same period last year, per numbers from FilmLA.

"Right now, it's a triage situation. The patient is dying and you need to bring it back to life," Matthew Belloni, who covers show business for Puck News and hosts the popular podcast "The Town," told CBS News....

....MUCH MORE 

"In a world without people, how fast would NYC fall apart? Here’s the timeline."

As noted in the introduction to 2022's "Iran Says Its Ballistic Missiles Have the Capability Of “Turning New York Into Hellish Ruins”": 

After Mayor de Blasio that may not be the threat the Mullahs Ayatollahs think it is. 

From Popular Science, June 5:

In a week, mold moves in. In a century, New York is a forest. 

Imagine the ceaseless cacophony of New York City suddenly stopped. No sirens wailed. No cars zoomed. No subways rumbled beneath sidewalks. All eight million New Yorkers disappeared overnight. 

Now, imagine what would happen next. If no one’s around to sweep the sidewalks, weed Central Park, or turn the power grid on, nature would move in—and quick. Dandelions would spring up in asphalt cracks. Raccoons would move into abandoned apartments. Sidewalk trees would outgrow their planters. 

But just how swiftly would the city disappear beneath a curtain of green? We talked to architects and urban ecologists to map out a potential timeline.

From Day 1 To Month 1: Plunged Into Darkness 
With no one to maintain the power grid, the Big Apple would go dark within a few days. The Milky Way would illuminate Midtown as light pollution disappears overnight. Without air conditioning and heat, “you start getting weird temperatures inside the building. Mold starts to form on the walls,” says architect Jana Horvat of the University of Zagreb, who studies building decay.

Some green energy projects in the city might stay lit for longer, such as the solar and wind-powered Ricoh Americas billboard in Times Square. Eventually, though, even the Ricoh billboard would go dark; not because the billboard would lose power, but because there would be no one to replace its LED lightbulbs. 

Without power, the pump rooms that clear out 13 million gallons of water daily from the subway would be useless, and the train tunnels would begin to flood. “Probably this water would result in [the subway] being, you know, occupied by new species,” says Horvat. “Some plants would start growing, some animals” would move in. Likely, species that already thrive in the subway—rats, cockroaches, pigeons, opossums—would be the first ones to take advantage of the human-free passages. 

Within the first month, the manicured lawns of Central and Prospect Park would grow wild and unkept. “When you stop mowing a lawn, you get a meadow,” says botanist Peter Del Tredici, a senior research scientist emeritus at the Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, who wrote a book on urban plant life. Within a month, dandelions, ragweed, and yellow nutsedge would start popping up in the now knee-high grasses of New York’s iconic parks. “First, it’s herbaceous plants, but then, you know, you get trees and shrubs and vines,” says Tredici. 

From Year 1 to Year 10: Decay Sets In 
In a year without people, many of New York’s buildings would start to deteriorate. “The glass facades would be the first to go,” says Horvat. The single-pane glass on brownstones and family homes would be the most vulnerable, but in a decade, even the heat-strengthened glass on skyscrapers would start to wear down and crack. And once windows break, water gets in. “Then you’ll have plants start growing in there,” says Tredici. Apartments would transform into humid hothouses, the perfect habitat for mosquitoes, water snakes, fungus, and rushes. “It’s like a wetland on the second floor.”...

....MUCH MORE 

Possibly also of interest:

"For the first time since the fall of the Roman empire, wilderness is returning to Italy. Are Italians ready?" 

"Payroll employment increases by 139,000 in May; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%"

A bit stronger than the consensus guess.

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 6: 

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MAY 2025

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs. 

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data
The unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent in May and has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. The number of unemployed people, at 7.2 million,changed little over the month. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.9 percent), teenagers (13.4 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 264,000 to 2.5 million in May. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) decreased over the month by 218,000 to 1.5 million. Both measures were little changed over the year. The long-term unemployed accounted for 20.4 percent of all unemployed people in May. (See table A-12.)

In May, the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3 percentage point to 59.7 percent. The labor force participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.4 percent. (See table A-1.)

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.6 million, changed little in May. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.) 
In May, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was little
changed at 6.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, changed little in May. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little over the month at 381,000. (See Summary table A.)

Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, similar to the average monthly gain of 149,000 over the prior 12 months. In May, employment continued to trend up in health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs. (See table B-1)....

....MUCH MORE, including additional commentary and all the tables.  

Capital Markets: "Dollar Better Bid Ahead of Jobs Report as Japanese and German Data Disappoint, but Will it be Sustained?"

 From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview:  It is not clear what happened yesterday, the first time US and Chinese leaders have spoken since the inauguration. The US readout suggests trade was only discussed and a deal on the rare earths was reached. China's readout included an expression of concern about US planned arms sales to Taiwan and the need for more talks to resolve the issue. The agreement in Geneva apparently covered bilateral actions and Beijing's export controls on several critical mineral and magnets are universal. Still, more talks have been planned even if not scheduled. Although the Trump-Mush break-up is as dramatic as one might expected, given the volatile personalities, the focus is on today's US employment data after a series of disappointing reports, including ADP and the weekly jobless claims. Still, the greenback is firmer against the G10 currencies, but mixed against the emerging market currencies, where the euro's pullback is a drag on central European currencies. 

Equities were mixed in the Asia Pacific region. South Korea's Kospi was the strongest with a 1.5% gain and a 5.3% rise on the week as election offers a chance for political stability after the turmoil earlier this year. Europe's Stoss 600 is flat as it tries to extend its advance for the fourth consecutive session. US index futures are 035%-0.50% higher as they recoup part of yesterday's losses. Bond yields are softer. Poor household spending data from Japan weighed on rate, and even at the very long-end of the curve. Disappointing Germany industrial production and export figures helped drag European bond yields 2-4 bp lower. The 10-year US Treasury yield is near 4.37%, slightly lower on the day and a little more than six basis points lower on the week, rivaling the 10-year Gilt for the best performance this week. Gold is consolidating quietly within yesterday's range and is trading so far today mostly between $3353 and $3375. It settled slightly below $3290 last week. July WTI remains in the upper end of Monday's trading range, which extended to almost $64. It settled on Monday near $62.50 and has mostly held above it. Today's range is roughly $62.80-$63.35....

....MUCH MORE, he goes on to summarize the crowd's thinking on the jobs report, among a couple dozen other things.  

"US Targets Niche Gas That China Can't Replace as Trade War Chip"

From Bloomberg via Canada's Financial Post, June 6:

The US is using its dominance of a niche petroleum gas as a bargaining chip in its trade war with China.

US Targets Niche Gas That China Can't Replace as Trade War Chip - Bloomberg 

America supplies China with almost all of its ethane, a product of the shale boom that’s used as a building block for making plastics. But the commerce department is now ordering shippers to apply for export licenses, and has told at least one, Enterprise Products Partners LP, that it intends to withhold permits for three China-bound cargoes....

....MUCH MORE 

U.N. FAO Food Price Index Down In May

From the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, June 6:

FAO Food Price Index falls in May on lower cereal, vegetable oil and sugar prices 

» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 127.7 points in May 2025, down 1.0 points (0.8 percent) from April. While the price indices for dairy products and meat increased, they were more than offset by declines in those for cereals, sugar and vegetable oils. Overall, the FFPI was 7.2 points (6.0 percent) higher than its level last year but remained 32.6 points (20.3 percent) below its peak reached in March 2022. 

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 109.0 points in May, down 2.0 points (1.8 percent) from April and 9.7 points (8.2 percent) below its May 2024 level. Global maize prices declined sharply during the month, pressured by firm competition and increasing seasonal availability from ongoing harvests in Argentina and Brazil, with harvesting in both countries ahead of last year’s pace by the end of May. Expectations of a record 2025 maize harvest in the United States of America further contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Among other coarse grains, world prices of sorghum and barley also dropped. International wheat prices declined as well, albeit more moderately, due to subdued global demand and improving crop conditions in the northern hemisphere. Rainfall towards the end of the month reduced the risk of drought in parts of Europe, the Black Sea region and the United States of America. By contrast, the FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.4 percent in May, driven by firm demand for fragrant varieties and higher prices of Indica rice, partly influenced by currency appreciations against the United States dollar in some exporting countries.

» The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 152.2 points in May, down 5.8 points (3.7 percent) from April but still 19.1 percent higher than its year-earlier level. The continued decline reflected lower quotations for palm, rapeseed, soy and sunflower oils. International palm oil prices declined markedly for the second consecutive month, maintaining a discount over competing oils since mid-April. The drop was primarily underpinned by seasonally larger outputs and export availabilities in Southeast Asia. Global soyoil prices also decreased, pressured by increasing supplies in South America and subdued demand for biofuel feedstock, particularly in the United States of America. Rapeseed oil prices dropped, mostly reflecting prospective improved supplies with the imminent harvest in the European Union, while sunflower oil prices fell due to weakening global import demand and declining price competitiveness.

» The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 124.6 points in May, up 1.6 points (1.3 percent) from the revised April value and 7.9 points (6.8 percent) above its level a year ago. The increase was driven by higher international prices for bovine, ovine and pig meats, which more than offset a decline in poultry meat quotations. Ovine meat prices rose, driven by higher quotations in Oceania supported by strong global import demand, particularly from China, the Middle East and Europe. Pig meat prices also increased, bolstered by strengthening global demand and sharply rising German export prices following the country’s regaining of foot-and-mouth disease free status. Global bovine meat prices edged up to a new historical high, amid solid global demand and tight exportable supplies in major producing countries. By contrast, poultry meat prices declined, weighed down by lower quotations in Brazil, where the detection of high-pathogenicity avian influenza on a commercial farm in mid-May led to import bans by several major importing countries, resulting in abundant surplus supplies and downward pressure on prices.

» The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 153.5 points in May, up 1.3 points (0.8 percent) from April and 27.2 points (21.5 percent) higher than its value a year ago. International butter prices remained at historically high levels, sustained by strong demand from Asia and the Middle East amid tightening milk supplies in Australia. However, a slowdown in demand for butter of European Union origin limited further price increases. Cheese prices increased for the second consecutive month, driven by sustained foodservice demand — particularly in East and Southeast Asia — and tight availabilities in the European Union due to adverse weather and disease outbreaks earlier in the year. Whole milk powder prices climbed an additional 4 percent from April, underpinned by robust purchases from China and limited supply growth. Conversely, skim milk powder prices declined marginally (-0.2 percent) in May, as ample exportable supplies from butter-producing regions offset increased demand from the Near East and North Africa....

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"Germany's Merz 'extremely satisfied' with Trump talks"

We now fast-forward 81 years from the D-Day posts to Germany's state-supported Deutsche-Welle, June 6, 2025:

Germany's chancellor held a friendly meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House, and said he hopes for progress on trade talks and putting pressure on Russia. 

What you need to know

  • German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has wrapped up positive talks with US President Donald Trump at the White House
  • The chancellor told DW that the US and Germany have a joint duty to put pressure on Russia
  • Merz told reporters he can speak with Trump well "on a personal level"
  • Merz and Trump held a press conference in the Oval Office ahead of a private lunch
  • Merz emphasized Trump's role in ending the the war in Ukraine 
  • Trump lauded US-German ties, said he is hopeful for trade deal

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Thursday, June 5, 2025

Normandy: The Only Woman To Land on D-Day

A repost from 2019.

We met Martha Gelhorn in May 25 2019's "The story of Ernest Hemingway’s $187,000 magazine expenses claim" where she appeared as Hemingway's third wife.
And a professionally superior journalist.
In fact, she was one of the best war correspondents of the last century, telling stories of conflicts for readers of Collier's from  Spain, London, Finland, and China.

In addition to being the only woman to land in Normandy on D-Day she was the first reporter to land, period. 

Here's Amusing Planet:

On the eve of the Normandy landings in June 1944, there were over a thousand war correspondents all over Europe reporting back to the millions of British and Americans back home. A handful of these journalists and photographers were also women. Unfortunately, the government had prohibited women from going to the front lines, so while these women correspondents could cover stories from the war zone, they could not go in with the troops.
Understandably, many female war correspondents were not happy with the ban.
“It is necessary that I report on this war," wrote Martha Ellis Gellhorn in an angry letter to military authorities. “I do not feel there is any need to beg as a favour for the right to serve as the eyes for millions of people in America who are desperately in need of seeing, but cannot see for themselves.”
Martha Ellis Gellhorn was an American war correspondent for the Collier’s magazine. Some of you may know her as the third wife of Ernest Hemingway, but her accomplishments as a journalist far outshine her brief marriage to the novelist.

Gellhorn began her career as a journalist during the Great Depression, working as a Field Investigator for the Federal Emergency Relief Administration (FERA) created by Franklin D. Roosevelt to report on the impact of the Depression on the country. Later, she travelled to Spain to cover the Spanish Civil War in 1937. During this period she met Ernest Hemingway, who was also in Spain as a correspondent. They married in 1940, she becoming Hemingway’s third wife, and Hemingway becoming Gellhorn’s second husband.

Gellhorn and Hemingway’s marriage was troubled from the start. Hemingway refused to let go off his second wife even when both of them were seeing each other, and Gellhorn’s long absences during her reporting assignments irritated Hemingway. When D-Day approached, their marriage was already dead in the water. To get even with Gellhorn, Hemingway got himself accredited as the correspondent for Colliers, the magazine Gellhorn worked for, blocking any chance Gellhorn might have of getting to the front lines.
But Martha Gellhorn was not ready to bow out....

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D-Day: "First Wave at Omaha Beach"

We usually mark D-Day with the story of the little boats that carried the troops (below) but in 2020 decided to post this piece.
 
Original post:
I have debated posting this article but finally decided to link.
The first consideration is: this is a ghastly story.
Beyond the high-flying rhetoric of politicians and commentators is the fact that people were killed and maimed in nasty, brutal, horrific ways.

Secondly, the author, S.L.A. Marshall, although an official U.S. Army combat historian who eventually retired as a brigadier general has, since his death, been found to be something of a stolen valor exaggerator and a sometimes methodological fabulist.

Still, the fact this piece was published in a major magazine just sixteen years after the events recounted is remarkable in and of itself.

From The Atlantic, :



Unlike what happens to other great battles, the passing of the years and the retelling of the story have softened the horror of Omaha Beach on D Day.

This fluke of history is doubly ironic since no other decisive battle has ever been so thoroughly reported for the official record. While the troops were still fighting in Normandy, what had happened to each unit in the landing had become known through the eyewitness testimony of all survivors. It was this research by the field historians which first determined where each company had hit the beach and by what route it had moved inland. Owing to the fact that every unit save one had been mislanded, it took this work to show the troops where they had fought.

How they fought and what they suffered were also determined in detail during the field research. As published today, the map data showing where the troops came ashore check exactly with the work done in the field; but the accompanying narrative describing their ordeal is a sanitized version of the original field notes.

This happened because the Army historians who wrote the first official book about Omaha Beach, basing it on the field notes, did a calculated job of sifting and weighting the material. So saying does not imply that their judgment was wrong. Normandy was an American victory; it was their duty to trace the twists and turns of fortune by which success was won. But to follow that rule slights the story of Omaha as an epic human tragedy which in the early hours bordered on total disaster. On this two-division front landing, only six rifle companies were relatively effective as units. They did better than others mainly because they had the luck to touch down on a less deadly section of the beach.

Three times that number were shattered or foundered before they could start to fight. Several contributed not a man or bullet to the battle for the high ground. But their ordeal has gone unmarked because its detail was largely ignored by history in the first place. The worst-fated companies were overlooked, the more wretched personal experiences were toned down, and disproportionate attention was paid to the little element of courageous success in a situation which was largely characterized by tragic failure.

The official accounts which came later took their cue from this secondary source instead of searching the original documents. Even such an otherwise splendid and popular book on the great adventure as Cornelius Ryan's The Longest Day misses the essence of the Omaha story.

In everything that has been written about Omaha until now, there is less blood and iron than in the original field notes covering any battalion landing in the first wave. Doubt it? Then let's follow along with Able and Baker companies, 116th Infantry, 29th Division. Their story is lifted from my fading Normandy notebook, which covers the landing of every Omaha company.

Able Company riding the tide in seven Higgins boats is still five thousand yards from the beach when first taken under artillery fire. The shells fall short. At one thousand yards, Boat No. 5 is hit dead on and foundered. Six men drown before help arrives. Second Lieutenant Edward Gearing and twenty others paddle around until picked up by naval craft, thereby missing the fight at the shore line. It's their lucky day. The other six boats ride unscathed to within one hundred yards of the shore, where a shell into Boat No. 3 kills two men. Another dozen drown, taking to the water as the boat sinks. That leaves five boats.

Lieutenant Edward Tidrick in Boat No. 2 cries out: "My God, we're coming in at the right spot, but look at it! No shingle, no wall, no shell holes, no cover. Nothing!"

His men are at the sides of the boat, straining for a view of the target. They stare but say nothing. At exactly 6:36 A.M. ramps are dropped along the boat line and the men jump off in water anywhere from waist deep to higher than a man's head. This is the signal awaited by the Germans atop the bluff. Already pounded by mortars, the floundering line is instantly swept by crossing machine-gun fires from both ends of the beach.

Able Company has planned to wade ashore in three files from each boat, center file going first, then flank files peeling off to right and left. The first men out try to do it but are ripped apart before they can make five yards. Even the lightly wounded die by drowning, doomed by the waterlogging of their overloaded packs. From Boat No. 1, all hands jump off in water over their heads. Most of them are carried down. Ten or so survivors get around the boat and clutch at its sides in an attempt to stay afloat. The same thing happens to the section in Boat No. 4. Half of its people are lost to the fire or tide before anyone gets ashore. All order has vanished from Able Company before it has fired a shot.

Already the sea runs red. Even among some of the lightly wounded who jumped into shallow water the hits prove fatal. Knocked down by a bullet in the arm or weakened by fear and shock, they are unable to rise again and are drowned by the onrushing tide. Other wounded men drag themselves ashore and, on finding the sands, lie quiet from total exhaustion, only to be overtaken and killed by the water. A few move safely through the bullet swarm to the beach, then find that they cannot hold there. They return to the water to use it for body cover. Faces turned upward, so that their nostrils are out of water, they creep toward the land at the same rate as the tide. That is how most of the survivors make it. The less rugged or less clever seek the cover of enemy obstacles moored along the upper half of the beach and are knocked off by machine-gun fire.

Within seven minutes after the ramps drop, Able Company is inert and leaderless. At Boat No. 2, Lieutenant Tidrick takes a bullet through the throat as he jumps from the ramp into the water. He staggers onto the sand and flops down ten feet from Private First Class Leo J. Nash. Nash sees the blood spurting and hears the strangled words gasped by Tidrick: "Advance with the wire cutters!" It's futile; Nash has no cutters. To give the order, Tidrick has raised himself up on his hands and made himself a target for an instant. Nash, burrowing into the sand, sees machine gun bullets rip Tidrick from crown to pelvis. From the cliff above, the German gunners are shooting into the survivors as from a roof top.

Captain Taylor N. Fellers and Lieutenant Benjamin R. Kearfoot never make it. They had loaded with a section of thirty men in Boat No. 6 (Landing Craft, Assault, No. 1015). But exactly what happened to this boat and its human cargo was never to be known. No one saw the craft go down. How each man aboard it met death remains unreported. Half of the drowned bodies were later found along the beach. It is supposed that the others were claimed by the sea.
 
Along the beach, only one Able Company officer still lives—Lieutenant Elijah Nance, who is hit in the heel as he quits the boat and hit in the belly by a second bullet as he makes the sand. By the end of ten minutes, every sergeant is either dead or wounded. To the eyes of such men as Private Howard I. Grosser and Private First Class Gilbert G. Murdock, this clean sweep suggests that the Germans on the high ground have spotted all leaders and concentrated fire their way. Among the men who are still moving in with the tide, rifles, packs, and helmets have already been cast away in the interests of survival.
 
To the right of where Tidrick's boat is drifting with the tide, its coxswain lying dead next to the shell-shattered wheel, the seventh craft, carrying a medical section with one officer and sixteen men, noses toward the beach. The ramp drops. In that instant, two machine guns concentrate their fire on the opening. Not a man is given time to jump. All aboard are cut down where they stand.

By the end of fifteen minutes, Able Company has still not fired a weapon.....
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D-Day: A Little Boat that Made the Difference

First posted June 6th 2009. 

There were so many heroes on June 6, 1944 that it is not right to single out any individual or group.

From the lunatic glider troops of the British 6th Airborne Division securing the Pegasus Bridge at 0016 hrs in Operation Deadstick, the pilots landing within yards of their objective, in freakin' gliders!, with a skill that Sir Trafford Leigh-Mallory, the commander of Allied air forces, would later praise as the finest feat of flying in the entire war.

The parachutists of the 82nd Airborne jumping into Sainte Mere Eglise at 01:30, where Pvt. John Steele found his place in history when his parachute got caught on the church steeple and he hung wounded for two hours before the Germans cut him down (he escaped).

The German privates in the bunkers and pillboxes at dawn, looking out at the largest armada ever assembled-
6939 vessels: 1213 naval combat ships, 4126 landing ships and landing craft, 736 ancillary craft and 864 merchant vessels.

Most of them said something that included the word Scheiße (exkrement).
(One German officer purportedly said, in disbelief, "It's impossible ... there can't be that many ships in the world." )

At 06:30 the 2nd Ranger Battalion scaling Pointe du Hoc's 100 foot cliffs under fire using ropes and ladders.

Those are some of the famous stories, and there are hundreds more.
The archetypal image though, is the beach landing, with this being one of the most famous pictures of the war:



That's a Higgins boat with troops of 1st Infantry Division (The Big Red One) on Omaha Beach.

From a 1964 interview with Supreme Allied Commander General Dwight Eisenhower:
"'Andrew Higgins..'..Eisenhower said..'..is the man who won the war for us.' My face must have shown the astonishment I felt at hearing such a strong statement from such a source. Eisenhower went on to explain, 'If Higgins had not designed and built those LCVPs, we never could have landed over an open beach. The whole strategy of the war would have been different.'"

—Stephen E. Ambrose  

D-DAY JUNE 6, 1944: THE CLIMACTIC BATTLE OF WORLD WAR II 

As one writer put it:  

...It wasn't very big, it wasn't blindingly fast, it wasn't brimming with big guns, and it most definitely wasn't heavily armored. In fact, it was made primarily of wood. 
But the Higgins Boat was one of the most decisive weapons utilized by the Allies during World War II. The only real dispute is whether it should be classified as a weapon.

It differed greatly from other tide-turning developments, such as the British Spitfire fighter plane, the Russian T34 tank, and the American P51 Mustang fighter. While the boat was equipped with a pair of .30 caliber machine guns, it was not an instrument of destruction....
Mr. Higgens ended up running a pretty big operation, over 20,000 employees manufacturing the landing craft and PT boats. Here's a factoid:
...In September, 1943, when the United States Fifth Army landed at Salerno, Italy, and General Douglas MacArthur's forces captured Salamaua in New Guinea, the American navy totaled 14,072 vessels.  Of these boats, 12,964, or 92% of the entire U.S. Navy, were designed by Higgins Industries, Incorporated; 8,865 were built at the Higgins plants in New Orleans, La....

This landing craft was in on every major D-Day invasion of the war. Normandy, North Africa, Sicily, Italy, and the islands of the Pacific: Guadalcanal, Tarawa, Saipan, Tinian, Iwo Jima and Okinawa.

Here's the site of the Higgins Memorial in Columbus Nebraska, Higgens' boyhood home, a long way from the beaches of Normandy.

See also:

Eisenhower Takes Responsibility for the Failure of the D-Day Landings

"The Meeker Report: Capitalism's AI Gospel and Its Blind Spots"

I'm not sure Ms Meeker is as relevant as she once was. 

As to gospel, another contender might be "Stanford University's 2025 AI Index Report". 

From Dave Friedman's Buy the Rumor, Sell the News, June 1:

Mary Meeker's 2025 AI Trends Report charts a future of exponential adoption and investor euphoria. But what isn't she saying?

Mary Meeker1 just dropped her 2025 AI Trends report, a 300+ slide compendium of hockey-stick charts, CapEx surges, and breathless adoption curves. If you wanted a single document that encapsulates Silicon Valley's consensus AI worldview—growth is good, more is better, and China is a threat—you've found your catechism.

But like most techno-optimist narratives, it's what the report doesn't say that matters most. The problem isn’t Meeker’s exuberance about growth. It’s her silence about the material preconditions of that growth. AI adoption curves don’t ascend in a vacuum. They run on electrons, water, and land. AI doesn’t scale on vibes. It scales on grid interconnects, substation backlogs, and megawatts-per-megachip.

What the Report Gets Right

AI Is a Compounder on Internet Rails

Meeker's sharpest insight is structural: AI isn't a new internet. It's a layer on top of the existing digital substrate. Adoption is fast not because AI is magical, but because the infrastructure for instant scale already exists. ChatGPT's global user growth outpaces the internet itself because it rides the rails of smartphones, APIs, and cloud distribution.

CapEx and Developer Growth Are Real

The developer ecosystems around NVIDIA and Google are exploding—6x and 5x YoY, respectively. CapEx among the "Big Six" (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA) surged 63% to $212B. That money isn't imaginary. Neither are the chips or the hiring sprees.

Inference Is Getting Cheaper, Training Is Not

One of the more balanced takeaways: per-token inference costs are dropping, while training costs are skyrocketing. This leads to greater developer experimentation even as model development becomes more exclusive. It’s a tale of diffusion at the edge and concentration at the core.

AI's Physical World Infiltration

Real-world use cases, including robotics in China, autonomous taxis in SF, ambient AI scribes in healthcare, and more are starting to move from pilot to production. The “AI meets atoms” story is maturing.

What the Report Misses

The Energy and Infrastructure Cliff

The report glamorizes Jensen Huang's metaphor of “AI factories” but completely ignores the energy input side of that equation. Where is the power coming from? How does this scale without melting grids or overloading transformers? No mention of cooling, latency, or land constraints. It’s CapEx euphoria without physical context....

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Recently from Mr. Friedman, May 28's "Stargate and the AI Industrial Revolution

The Economic Threat From Apollo, Blackstone and KKR

From The Economist, May 29:

American finance, always unique, is now uniquely dangerous
Donald Trump is putting an untested system under almighty strain 

ALWAYS A HAVEN in dangerous times, America has itself become a source of instability. The list of anxieties is long. Government debt is rising at an alarming pace. Trade policy is beset by legal conflicts and uncertainties. Donald Trump is attacking the country’s institutions. Foreign investors are skittish and the dollar has tumbled. Yet, astonishingly, one big danger lurks unnoticed still.

When you think of financial risk, you may picture investment-banking capers on Wall Street or subprime mortgages in Miami. But, as our special report explains, over the past decade American finance has been transformed. A mix of asset managers, hedge funds, private-equity firms and trading firms—including Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Citadel, Jane Street, KKR and Millennium—have emerged from the shadows to elbow aside the incumbents. They are fundamentally different from the banks, insurers and old-style funds they have replaced. They are also big, complex and untested.

The financial revolution is now encountering the MAGA revolution. Mr Trump is hastening the next financial crisis by playing havoc with trade, upending America’s global commitments and, most of all, by prolonging the government’s borrowing binge. America’s financial system has long been dominant, but the world has never been as exposed to it. Everyone should worry about its fragility.

The new firms are a magnet for financial talent. They also enjoy regulatory advantages, because governments forced banks to hold more capital and rein in their traders after the financial crisis of 2007-09. That combination has led to a spate of innovation, supercharging the firms’ growth and propelling them into every corner of finance.

Three big private-markets firms, Apollo, Blackstone and KKR, have amassed $2.6trn in assets, almost five times as much as a decade ago. In that time the assets of large banks grew by just 50% to $14trn. In the search for stable funding, the upstarts have turned to insurance; Apollo, which made its name in private equity and merged with its insurance arm in 2022, now issues more annuities than any other American insurer. The firms lend to households and blue-chip companies such as Intel. Apollo alone lent $200bn last year. Loans held by large banks increased by just $120bn. New-look trading firms dominate stockpicking and marketmaking. In 2024 Jane Street earned as much trading revenue as Morgan Stanley.

There is much to like about this new financial system. It has been highly profitable. In some ways, it is also safer. Banks are vulnerable to runs because depositors fear being the last in the queue to withdraw their money. All things being equal, finance is more stable when loans are financed by money that is locked up for longer periods.

Most importantly, the dynamism of American finance has channelled capital towards productive uses and world-beating ideas, fuelling its economic and technological outperformance. The artificial-intelligence boom is propelled by venture capital and a new market for data-centre-backed securities. Bank-based financial systems in Europe and Asia cannot match America’s ability to mobilise capital. That has not only set back those regions’ industries, it has also drawn money into America. Over the past decade, the stock of American securities owned by foreigners doubled, to $30trn.

Unfortunately, the new finance also contains risks. And they are poorly understood. Indeed, because they are novel and untested by a crisis, they have never been quantified.

One lot of worries come from within the system. The new giants are still bank-like in surprising ways. Although it is costly to redeem a life-insurance policy early, a run is still possible should policy holders and other lenders fear that the alternative is to get back nothing. And although the banks are safer, depositors are still exposed to the new firms’ risk-taking. Bank loans to non-bank financial outfits have doubled since 2020, to $1.3trn. Likewise, the leverage supplied to hedge funds by banks has ballooned from $1.4trn in 2020 to $2.4trn today....

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"Yale Is Selling Private Equity Stakes. Endowments Are Souring on the Sector."

From Barron's, May 29/June 2:

It once seemed like the perfect investment—offering better returns than stocks with less risk. Lately, though, PE has become an albatross. 

Legendary Yale University endowment head David Swensen loved to riff on Benjamin Franklin’s line about life’s only certainties being death and taxes. True, Swensen would say, but the adage didn’t apply to university endowment managers, because for one thing, educational institutions aspire to exist in perpetuity, and secondly, endowment assets enjoy exemption from taxes.

Now it looks like Franklin was right. Turns out no man, nor wealthy college or university, can escape the long arm of the taxman, who looks pretty certain to dramatically increase the levy on large endowments. As for “existing in perpetuity,” it’s probably an overstatement to say threats are existential to universities—for now, at least.

Endowments—the money engines of our nation’s premier institutions of higher learning—and those who run them are taking it from all quarters these days. The proposed tax hike, Trump administration cuts in federal funding, bans on foreign students, as well higher interest rates and stalled capital markets are all putting pressure on university budgets and, by extension, their endowments.

Though Swensen died in 2021, he’s a central character in this drama. As the creator of the so-called Yale Model, Swensen argued endowments shouldn’t allocate only into public equities and particularly bonds, but maintained that portfolios should be broadly diversified, with a heavy weighting in investments like private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, and real estate.

Swensen, an Iowan who adored Vince Lombardi, began running the Yale endowment in 1985. Private investments, he believed, fit well into the university’s endowments because they had infinite holding periods and were less obligated to be transparent. Swensen also contended these investments generated higher returns with the same or less risk as public markets—a bit of a free lunch, if you will.

During Swensen’s salad days, Yale’s endowment was the gold standard. In his book Pioneering Portfolio Management, which codified his research and thinking, he noted that in 2007, Yale’s 10- and 20-year returns soundly beat the S&P 500 index. It was the No. 1-performing university endowment over the same time periods. As word spread and his acolytes followed—15 former members of Swensen’s team went on to lead investment offices at other institutions—the Yale Model became de rigueur.

The degree to which the Swensen way became consensus is manifested by the allocation of private equity in endowments. Cambridge Associates notes that Harvard, Princeton, Notre Dame, and Yale have allocations of 39% to 48% in private equity in their portfolios.

But as with any investment that generates alpha—above-market returns—an overweighted allocation of private equity worked wonders until it worked less well. Selling has ensued. “We may have been like drunken sailors drinking private markets…but we tapered down in 2023 and 2024,” said Jagdeep Singh Bachher, the University of California’s chief investment officer, at his investment committee meeting on May 13. “We sold down a lot of our privates,” says a member of Brown University’s committee on budget and finance. (As of last June, Brown had 42% of its endowment in private equity.)

Other large universities like Harvard—which has sold private equity stakes previously—are looking to offload, too. Yale, with its $41 billion endowment, had been adverse to selling its PE positions. “I think some of that was from David,” says a finance professional who worked with Swensen. “He thought selling private-equity stakes was a sign of bad faith and hurt relationships with general partners.”

Then in mid-April came news that should have shocked no one. Yale’s chief investment officer, Matthew Mendelsohn, who succeeded Swensen, had put billions of Yale’s PE position out for bids. Barron’s has now learned, from two people familiar with the situation, that Yale has moved forward and is in the process of selling some of these stakes, though without revealing dollar amounts or buyers.

Those familiar with the endowment say it has held stakes in funds managed by CD&R (formerly Clayton Dubilier & Rice), Madison Dearborn Partners, and Golden Gate, but it was unknown if these had been sold. In a statement, Yale said, “Following a monthslong review, the University is in process to sell select private-equity fund interests. Private equity remains a core element of our investment strategy.”

“What is going on with endowments is equivalent to the financial crisis of 2008,” UC’s Bachher said. “If you have 50% of your assets locked into illiquid contracts for the next 10 years, you may have a hard time paying out a higher amount than you typically would. There will be more transactions.”

Consider specifically why universities are looking to pare their PE holdings. First, threats from the Trump administration come in a number of forms, but they all take money away from schools. Cuts in federal funding could cost universities collectively in excess of $10 billion. Deporting, banning, and chilling foreign students means billions more in lost tuition.

Then there’s increasing the tax on realized endowment gains from 1.4% to as high as 21% on large endowments. H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Sec. 112021, has a 21% excise rate ceiling, which would hit Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Princeton to the tune of $500 million to $850 million a year, up from $39 million to $56 million, according to Phillip Levine of Wellesley College.

That possible tax hit is reason enough to sell sooner rather than later. “Endowments looking to crystallize gains in private equity would certainly rather do so before the tax goes to 21%,” said the head of an endowment who sold off some PE last year and is staring at a potentially higher rate.

Still, the environment is uncertain. It’s even possible that higher tax rates make private equity more appealing, as those investments defer gains. That might serve to hold PE allocations steady.....

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