That was quick.
From Politico.eu, July 9:
Offensive drones have had a brief window of domination. But it was only a matter of time before effective counter-drone capabilities emerged.
Mark T. Kimmitt is a retired U.S. Army brigadier general and has also served as the U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs.
In May, Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems acknowledged the use of high-power laser systems in combat. Part of the company’s previously undisclosed Iron Lite program, it’s already credited with intercepting “scores of enemy threats.”
Most crucially, its high effectiveness, far lower cost and scalability, combined with dozens of other counter-drone and defensive programs under development around the world, ends the argument over whether the drone has been a revolution in modern warfare: It has not. And the brief era of drone supremacy has ended.
In 2022, drones became the iconic weapon of the war in Ukraine. Grainy videos showing hundreds of Russian tanks and combat vehicles destroyed by handheld drones grew to be a staple on our screens. Leveraging equal parts battlefield effectiveness, YouTube propagation and morbid entertainment, Ukraine’s media-savvy charismatic president used drone warfare as a way to boost both public morale and international support.
Scores of reports, studies and respected military analysts all suggested this use of drones in Ukraine wasn’t a one-time anomaly, but rather signaled a fundamental change in warfare: Drones are cheap, plentiful and hard to destroy; they end the ability to camouflage rear-echelon troops and command posts; and most importantly, they are unmanned and uncrewed, so the only casualties are targeted adversaries and civilians.
While they seem to be near-perfect weapons, however, drones are no longer invincible.
The battlefield adapts quickly. And like the record of so many other combat disrupters throughout history — cavalry stirrups, Roman phalanxes, longbows, submarines and other supposedly transformative technology that proclaimed to fundamentally change the character of warfare — offensive drones have had a brief window of domination. But it was only a matter of time before effective counter-drone (C-UAS) capabilities emerged.
In the period between the two world wars, for example, airpower theorists promoted the long-range bomber as invincible, even to the point where British Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin proclaimed in 1932 that “there is no power on earth that can protect (us) from being bombed. Whatever people may tell him, the bomber will always get through.” Yet, the rapid development of early radar detection, interceptor aircraft and anti-aircraft guns quickly became effective countermeasures, leaving the long-range bomber a functional role on the battlefield, but it was no longer the “invincible weapon.”
Similarly, there are many reasons why drones no longer dominate today: First, the battlefield is brutal and unforgiving. Just weeks after the appearance of armed drones in Ukraine, Russian units became more skilled at early detection, camouflage, electronic defense and modifying combat vehicles with additional armor to defeat or mitigate incoming kamikaze drones....
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