And from the Lowy Institute's The Interpreter, July 10:
Despite speculation about leadership challenges, evidence
suggests Xi Jinping holds firm control over China’s political system.
In recent weeks, a flurry of reports has predicted the imminent downfall of China’s President Xi Jinping. Similar rumours have surfaced repeatedly over his 13-year rule – and each time have proven false. While scepticism about Xi’s invincibility is warranted, history suggests that today’s chatter will likely also turn out to be unfounded.
To be sure, something strange is happening in Beijing. Since Xi began his third term in 2022, several of his hand-picked appointees have been removed, prompting speculation about a power struggle in the Chinese Communist Party. Most of the activity has occurred in the military, leading some to conclude that Xi is losing control of the armed forces. But not all analysts agree with this assessment. Some see the intrigue as evidence of Xi’s further consolidation of power or even as infighting among his subordinates that has no effect on him.
Despite the noise, no one has credibly explained how a leader who dominates every significant CCP organisation could be toppled. All seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee are either long-time Xi allies or have served him loyally for over a decade. More than half of the broader Politburo’s 24 members are his protégés, and nearly all the others had direct ties to him prior to their appointments. The factions rumoured to be plotting against Xi lack meaningful representation in the bodies that appoint and remove senior officials. The notion that these sidelined groups have somehow outmanoeuvred a political operator as shrewd and relentless as Xi strains credulity.
Nor has Xi made a recent blunder so catastrophic that it would convince his allies that his continued rule is a liability to the Party. His Covid-19 strategy collapsed in 2022, resulting in a year of widespread lockdowns that stalled economic activity, threatened social stability, and saddled provincial governments with dangerous levels of debt. But that was three years ago. Instead of punishing Xi, the Party awarded him a precedent-breaking third term and allowed him to further consolidate his control.
For all the turbulence of Xi’s tenure, the CCP generally views him as a success. Xi has presided over China’s rise as a global power and reasserted the Party’s control of society more comprehensively than any leader since Mao. Though his handling of the economy and of US-China relations has drawn some criticism, few believe removing him would erase US tariffs or improve China’s global standing. If anything, Xi is credited with forcing Washington back to the negotiating table in the latest trade standoff....
....MUCH MORE
