From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex, August 29:
September brings a cluster of events that will shape the macro narrative into year-end. A Xi-Trump meeting, German state elections, a Federal Reserve decision with a new Summary of Economic Projections, and an ECB meeting that is not finished hiking. Each carries its own logic, but together they sketch the contours of the fourth quarter.
In our more frequent analysis, we noted that while the dollar had been dragged down by disappointing economic data and pushing of a Fed rate hike further out, we were cautious as the momentum indicators were over-extended. The tension has been resolved. The market took a hawkish message away from Fed Chair Warsh at his Jackson Hole speech, increasing the odds of not just a September hike but another one before year end. And the momentum indicators for the dollar turned higher. Even if the market has overreacted to Warsh's comments, the upside dollar correction has only just begun, it would appear.
Xi-Trump: Trade, Not FX....
....MUCH MORE
