We last visited TECHi March 28, to look at "BlackRock’s Larry Fink: AI Is Not a Bubble — Power Is the Real Bottleneck". GEV hit a new all-time-high yesterday, $1,009.89, before reversing and closing down. $995.90 last up$ 3.33 (+0.34%) in pre-market trade.
From TECHi, April 20 (our interest is the GE Vernova commentary):
Two stocks report earnings Wednesday morning, and between them they tell you more about the real economics of the AI build-out than Tesla’s robotaxi slides or Alphabet’s capex footnote ever will. GE Vernova (GEV) closed Friday at $1,002.75, up roughly 200% in a year. Vertiv (VRT) closed at $307.34, up about 42% year-to-date on a $15 billion backlog. Both are “pick-and-shovel” names, not AI labs, and both sit directly in the path of the capital that hyperscalers have already committed to spend. The question Wednesday answers is whether the numbers behind that spend are hitting the tape, or only the press release.
Key Takeaways
- Same Morning, Same Thesis: GE Vernova (GEV) and Vertiv (VRT) both report Q1 2026 earnings before the bell on Wednesday, April 22, 2026 — GEV at 7:30 AM ET, VRT at 11:00 AM ET.
- Live Tape: GEV closed Friday at $1,002.75 (up ~200% in a year). VRT closed at $307.34 (up ~42% YTD) on a reported $15B backlog.
- The Capex Anchor: Wall Street consensus now pegs 2026 hyperscaler capex at $527 billion. Goldman flags that consensus has been too low for two straight years — actual growth exceeded 50% against implied 20%.
- Vertiv Q1 Guide: Net sales $2.5–$2.7B, adjusted EPS $0.95–$1.01. Printing to the high end with a full-year raise is the clean bull signal.
- The Pair-Trade Logic: Every AI megawatt added to hyperscaler capacity generates orders at both names — GEV supplies the electrons, VRT manages the heat. A 60/40 GEV/VRT blend captures most of the cycle upside....
*****
....Why Wednesday Matters More Than Tuesday’s Tesla Print
GE Vernova reports Q1 2026 results before the open on Wednesday, April 22, with a 7:30 AM ET webcast from CEO Scott Strazik and CFO Ken Parks. Vertiv reports the same morning, with an 11:00 AM ET call. Having both names on the same tape is a gift for anyone trying to separate AI capex narrative from AI capex cash.Tesla on Wednesday will drive the headlines because robotaxi is louder than gas turbines and liquid cooling. But the signal investors actually need lives in the GEV and VRT prints. If orders are accelerating, backlogs are extending, and gross margins are holding, the AI infrastructure cycle has another 12 to 18 months of visibility that the sell-side still has not fully modeled. If any of those three slip, the whole “AI capex is different this time” thesis takes a hit....
....MUCH MORE
Another name in the hyper-concentrated electrical mini-portfolio, Quanta Services, is due to release earnings next week. It is also up triple-digits (126.39%) over the last year.
This morning it looks to open above yesterday's all-time-high, $607.26, up $6.88 (+1.14%) at $611.86 in pre-market action.
Among the other names, Cameco is up 200.19% over the twelve months to yesterday, Prysmian is up 168.65%, Lynas is up 125.90% and First Solar, if your mandate says you should have solar, is the laggard, up 50.41% over the last year.
GE Vernova's doppelgänger, Siemen's Energy is up 164.61% over the period.
Nvidia is up 99.09% for the year and has started the breakout to new all-time highs.
This all goes back to January - February 2024:
January 10, 2024 -"BlackRock Acquisition Triples Its Business of Building Airports, Roads, and Utilities"
And it was off to the races.
September 18, 2024 - Big Money: "Microsoft, BlackRock form group to raise $100 billion to invest in AI data centers and power"
Possibly also of interest, the infrastructure series:
February 23 = The Infrastructure Theme Is For Real (PWR)
January 31:"KKR raises $6.4 bln for its Asian infrastructure fund" (KKR)
January 8 "East Coast land continues to collapse at a worrying rate It's steadily sinking or subsiding, which is destabilizing levees, roads, and airports."
January 8: "There’s a Shortage of Electrical Wires, Transformers. That’s Good for These Stocks."
January 12: (Big) Batteries: "‘World leading' Tesla battery online to help kick coal out of Hawaii" (TSLA)
January 12: BlackRock Goes Large-by-Large In Infrastructure (BLK)"
January 15: "Investors look set to pour cash into infrastructure following BlackRock acquisition" (BLK)
January 16: "BlackRock Acquisition Triples Its Business of Building Airports, Roads, and Utilities"
I'm telling ya, this is a big deal. Not just for the $12.5 billion purchase price but for the $100+ billion in assets that GIP manages.
January 23: Minerals-for-Infrastructure: "Congo and China Talking $7 Billion In Finance, Tshisekedi Says"
January 23: DEI and ESG Live On, We Just Won't Talk About Them (BLK)
That's one lesson from BlackRock's purchase of Global Infrastructure Partners.
January 29: RAND: "The U.S. Must Close the Long-Distance Power Transmission Gap with China" Or, as the Financial Times put it, a bit more succinctly, February 1, 2024:KKR has raised a record $6.4bn for its latest Asian infrastructure fund, capping a month of frenzied investment activity in the sector at a time when broader private equity fundraising has slowed.
—KKR raises record $6.4bn for Asia fund in infrastructure rush
Related, December 4, 2023:
Russell Napier Called It: "The Eyepopping Factory Construction Boom in the US"And possibly most important:
March 18 - In Nvidia's World, If You (and your company) Don't Have Money You Will Not Be Able To Compete (NVDA)
March 20, 2025 - "Money Managers Rush to Invest in The World’s ‘Essential Plumbing’"
October 3, 2025 - BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners Circling $40 Billion Data Center Purchase (BLK)
And many, many more as the best analyst I've ever met once said to me: "A trend is emerging."
