Thursday, October 23, 2025

Ahead Of Tomorrow's Delayed Inflation Report: The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcast

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, October 23:

      Inflation, month-over-month percent change 

Month                    CPI    Core CPI     PCE    Core PCE      Updated
October 2025         0.19     0.25         0.20        0.24            10/23
September 2025   0.38     0.26        0.31       0.24           10/23 

....MUCH MORE

If the Fed Bank is correct about the 0.38% September monthly, we might see some fear that, though the October rate cut seems baked in, a December cut might be a bit iffy.

According to our handy interest rate calculator, 0.38% monthly annualizes out to 4.66%.