Two great tastes that taste great together!
Hmmm, maybe not the tagline that Nvidia is looking for.*
From NextBigFuture, October 10:
Kevin Pathrath an other [sic] warn of an AI Bubble and AI Ponzi with a potential 80% collapse. The core of the argument is the circular financing structure of the recent OpenAI-Oracle-Nvidia deal and the OpenAI-AMD deal.
Nvidia commits up to $100B in investments ($10B per gigawatt deployed, up to 10GW), starting with the first GW in H2 2026 on its Vera Rubin platform. This cash funds OpenAI’s infrastructure. Each Gigawatt purchased by OpenAI would be about $30 billion worth of Nvidia chips. Nvidia would be selling at 60-75% margin. $10 billion would be only part of $15-20 billion of profits from each sale. The $10 billion would be purchased at the mid-2026 valuation for OpenAI.
Is buying shares in a customer company a ponzi scheme? Profits are still made by Nvidia. IF OpenAI failed there would be no domino effect on Nvidia....
....MUCH MORE
The proprietor of NextBigFuture, Brian Wang, is a bit of a booster.
Also at NBF:
Possibly also of interest:
Speaking of Robert Rubin: "The Optimal Design of Ponzi Schemes in Finite Economies"
This is a paper from 2002 that accurately predicted the events of the Great Financial Crisis, 2007 - 2009.
TL;dr: You don't play in the late stages of a pyramid or Ponzi scheme unless you know there will be a bailout.
