Friday, April 4, 2025

Dear Russia And Germany, Watch Out

And no, drones have not ended the era of the main battle tank.

Taking lessons learned from the war in Ukraine the machines are nastier than ever.

From Nineteen45, April 2:

K2 Black Panther Tanks Will Soon Be in Russia’s Backyard 

Summary and Key Points: South Korea’s K2 Black Panther tank, featuring advanced technology like a hydropneumatic suspension, automatic loading system, and NATO-compatible ammunition, has captured Poland’s attention.

-Poland’s significant purchase of up to 1,000 K2 tanks highlights Warsaw’s strategic shift to modernize its military, replacing Soviet-era tanks and significantly boosting NATO interoperability.

-This ambitious military deal also involves local production and technology transfer, enhancing Poland’s defense industry. Concurrently, North Korea’s arms exports to Russia illustrate a Korean arms rivalry.

-Both Koreas leverage the war in Ukraine to strengthen international partnerships, showcasing their evolving roles in global military markets and geopolitical dynamics.

Here Comes the K2 Black Panther Tank from South Korea 

The K2 Black Panther is South Korea’s primary main battle tank. It is distinct from the earlier K1 design, which is a derivative of the American M1 Abrams main battle tank. Poland is going all-in on the K2 in a massive deal with South Korea.

“The deal, signed 22 July, will see up to 1,000 Hyundai Rotem K2 Black Panther main battle tanks, 672 Hanwha Defense K9 Thunder 155 mm self-propelled artillery and 48 Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) FA-50 Fighting Eagle light fighter ground-attack aircraft acquired in stages that include technology transfer and local production,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank explained.

“Initial batches of 180 K2s, 48 K9s and 12 FA-50s will be standard production versions and deliveries should begin this year,” IISS wrote. “Polish versions will then be developed with production of the K2PL, K9PL and FA-50PL beginning in 2026, 2024 and 2025 respectively. Whilst all FA-50PLs will be built in South Korea, Polish production of the K2PL and K9PL will begin in 2026. Joint development of follow-on tank and howitzer systems is also planned.”

The Design of K2 Black Panther Tank 

One of the K2’s more notable features is its hydropneumatic suspension, which allows for independent control of each of the tank’s 12 road wheels. This affords the tank excellent off-road mobility and the ability to essentially raise or lower either end or side of the tank into a kneeling or a heads-up position....

....MUCH MORE 

Regarding Deutschland in the headline that's a reference to January 2024's "Ukraine’s Leopard 2 tanks are nearly all destroyed or broken"
Poland gives South Korea* a high-five while thinking "Berlin, here we come." (just kidding) 

With this outro:

As noted a year ago the Leopard 2 is not the wunderwaffe it was touted as and could be beaten by 8th century jihadis in Syria.
*Regarding South Korea: "Poland’s Blooming Relationship With South Korea". 

And the outro from ""Saab Signs Contract for Two SIGINT ships for Poland" (plus some other stuff)": 

....Beginning with the South Korea deal. Poland isn't simply buying big iron.  As noted in August's "Watch Out Lithuania: Poland Is Militarizing Faster Than Any Nation In Europe" as part of the agreement Poland has a license to build the tanks:

....Poland will import the first batch of 180 K2PL tanks, with another 800 manufactured in Poland, under the name “Wilk” (“Wolf”)....

These aren't just any tanks. From the introduction to September's "Poland Will Have a Large and Modern Tank Army

One of the odder comments on Russia's war against Ukraine was making the rounds last week, to the effect that Russia buying munitions from North Korea was a sign of weakness.

It is more likely a sign that North Korea's war plans are very similar to Russia's, lots, and I mean lots of artillery, and the shells to go with them. It actually seems natural.

In the same vein, Poland's joint venture with South Korea to secure a whole bunch of tanks seems very smart. These are the tanks Seoul developed to hold back the North Koreans and they are reputed to be among the best in the world....

Which was followed by: "...And Helicopters, Poland Will Have A LOT Of Attack Helicopters":

...Deadly nasty killing machines. 

So the distance from Warsaw to Brussels being 1160 km (721 miles) and with a ferry range of 1,900km the copters would need to be refueled outbound and for a return trip. Unless it's a kamikaze mission.

Wait, what am I saying, they aren't going to attack EU headquarters. 
Right?
Probably just Berlin and back home for dinner. 

Maybe Strasbourg.

There is much more than just buying arms and armaments going on here. Because of the hostility toward Poland's government from Brussels, and the possibility that at some point in the future NATO's Article 5 will be invoked by Poland only to be met with reluctant mobilization on the part of the other NATO members or, worse, silence, Poland wants at minimum to have the capability to slow-down any future attack. Memories are long in that part of the world and everyone remembers what happened to Czechoslovakia in 1938, what with the 'Peace for our time' and all. 

This attitude on the part of the Poles is exactly the same as their reasoning on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, February 2018: "Polish PM: Nord Stream II Would Make Russia Free to act Against Ukraine, So Must Not be Built".

When Germany and the EU decided to go ahead with the pipeline, despite a half-decade of warnings* from Poland, the Poles bought themselves a geopolitical insurance policy, the President Lech Kaczyński LNG facility in Świnoujście, about eight feet from the German border on the Baltic. Which they expanded. And expanded again while offering Germany some of the gas if Germany would just think twice about Nord Stream 2.

The thing to know about insurance policies is you have to pay the premium up front and it can be a very visible cost. Which will only seem prudent should something bad happen.

But there are some things you can't measure in zlotys alone.