Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Corrected—Inflation: Ahead Of Tomorrow's PCE Report, The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast is Guessing 0.00%

They probably don't use the term 'guessing".

From the Federal Reserve Bank Of Cleveland, updated through April 28:


Inflation, month-over-month percent change 

Month           CPI    Core CPI    PCE     Core PCE      Updated
April 2025    0.23    0.23          0.20        0.21             04/28
March 2025                            -0.00       0.10             04/28

Note: If the cell is blank, it implies that the actual data corresponding to the month for that inflation measure have already been released.


Which, combined with the March 2024 figure dropping off, brings their guess for year-over-year percentage change in the personal consumption expenditures deflator to 2.19%. 

Inflation, year-over-year percent change 

Month           CPI    Core CPI        PCE    Core PCE      Updated
April 2025    2.35     2.76            2.12        2.50           04/28
March 2025                                2.19        2.54           04/28

Note: If the cell is blank, it implies that the actual data corresponding to the month for that inflation measure have already been released.

...MORE 

So, we shall see, 8:30 10:00 am, EDT.

Correction: someone (ahem) used the GDP release time rather than the PCE release time.

See also April 28's "The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity".