From Maritime Executive, April 11:
The re-ordering of global trade, escalated by the astronomical tariffs between the U.S and China, has left some countries with significant export advantages. Brazil is already showing signs as an early winner, with its port sector reporting increased demand. A strong preference for the Brazilian soybean has started to appear in China, historically a large-scale buyer of American soy.
According to Reuters, China is expected to receive about 3 million tons of U.S soybeans in April-May, which its state stockpiler Sinograin purchased earlier this year. However, due to China’s new 125 percent tariffs on American goods, the shipment is likely to attract higher duties and possibly sell at a discount due to cheap competition from beans from Brazil.
“The pressure of the soy crushing margins on Chinese industries will likely change the country’s import dynamics. As these margins come under negative pressure, China tends to slow down the pace of imports and rely on domestic stockpiles- as seen in the previous trade war in 2018,” said the Brazilian National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec) in its monthly report this week.
Anec predicts a potential export boom for the Brazilian soy this year of up to 110 million tons, representing a historic record for Brazil. In the first quarter of 2025, Brazil has already recorded shipments of about 27 million tons, a four percent increase compared to last year. Currently, China accounts for 77 percent of Brazilian soy exports....
....MUCH MORE
