Still looking for suggestions on how to cut the deficit. Not seeing many.
From Bloomberg, April 28:
The US Treasury ramped up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to account for a much smaller starting stockpile of cash than it had projected — a consequence of Congress having failed as yet to raise the federal debt limit.
The Treasury Department said in a statement Monday that it now estimates $514 billion in net borrowing for April through June, up from the $123 billion it had penciled in back in February. As is its usual practice, the Treasury had assumed in its previous projections that the debt ceiling — which kicked back in at the start of January — would be raised or suspended. But lawmakers are still working on the issue.
While in February the Treasury had assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $850 billion, it actually ended up much smaller, at about $406 billion. Under the debt limit, the government is prevented from issuing net new supply of Treasuries. The department on Monday retained its previous forecast for an $850 billion cash-balance target for the end of June, continuing to assume the debt limit will be sorted.
“Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February,” the Treasury said.
Wrightson ICAP senior economist Lou Crandall flagged, before the announcement, that the last quarterly estimates came before the unprecedented announcements of hikes on import duties announced by President Donald Trump. The extra tariff revenue may now also be shaping the Treasury’s cash management, he wrote in a note.
Read more: US Customs Duties Hit New High as Trump Tariffs Take Effect
Dealers’ expectations for the new borrowing estimate had varied ahead of Monday’s release, given the uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the debt ceiling. Crandall had expected a ramp up in the borrowing projection if the Treasury maintained the “unrealistic assumption” that the cash balance would rebound to $850 billion by the end of June....
....MUCH MORE
And from the U.S. Treasury, April 28:
Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates
WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the April – June 2025 and July – September 2025 quarters.
- During the April – June 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $514 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $850 billion.[2],[3] The borrowing estimate is $391 billion higher than announced in February 2025, primarily due to the lower beginning-of-quarter cash balance and projected lower net cash flows, partially offset by lower Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions ($60 billion). Excluding the lower than assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance, the current quarter borrowing estimate is $53 billion lower than announced in February.
- During the July – September 2025 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $554 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.3
- During
the January – March 2025 quarter, Treasury borrowed $369 billion in
privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash
balance of $406 billion. In February 2025, Treasury estimated borrowing
of $815 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $850
billion. The $446 billion difference in privately-held net market
borrowing resulted primarily from the lower end-of-quarter cash
balance. Excluding the lower than assumed end-of-quarter cash balance,
actual borrowing was $2 billion lower than announced in February.
Additional
financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be
released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
