Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Capital Markets: "Markets Consolidate, but Nervously So, Remaining One Social Media Post Away from Euphoria or Doom"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The postponement of US reciprocal tariffs, the "clarification" that popular consumer products, including those from China, are not subject to the reciprocal tariffs until the levy on semiconductor chips are decided, and a hint from President Trump himself that he is considering a delay in the auto tariffs that were to be effective on May 3 has steadied investor nerves. The dollar is mostly consolidating within the pre-weekend range and equities have stabilized. In the currency market, sterling and the Australian dollar have shown some independent strength and have extended their gains. The Canadian dollar is threatening the same. Emerging market currencies are mixed, and no clean regional breakdown is evident.

Most Asia Pacific equity markets are extending yesterday's gain. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up a little more than 1% after advancing 2.70% yesterday. If sustained, it would be the first back-to-back gains since March 18-19. US index futures are firmer. European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 2-3 basis points firmer. The 10-year Gilt yield is off slightly more than a single basis points and is the best performer among back bond markets today. The 10-year US Treasury yield is practically flat near 4.38%. Gold is consolidating with a firm bias inside yesterday's range, which was inside Friday's range, when the record was set near $3246. May WTI is quiet, mostly between $61.25 and $62.00 today.

USD: The Dollar Index consolidated yesterday, within the pre-weekend range but it still settled lower for the fifth consecutive session....

....MUCH MORE