Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Capital Markets: "Weak US Survey Data to Begin being Evident in Real Sector Reports"

 From Marc to Market:

Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet. The dollar is mostly little changed against the G10 currencies, mostly in the ranges that have been carved in recent days. The dollar-bloc currencies are mostly flat to firmer. The others are softer, led by the yen's almost 0.5% loss and sterling's 0.35% decline. Among emerging market currencies, those from the Asia Pacific are mostly steady to higher, while central European currencies weaker, with the euro perhaps acting as a drag, even though the eurozone Q1 GDP of 0.4% was stronger than expected and likely exceeded the US figure, which will be reported shortly. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate lower for the fifth consecutive session ahead of the extended May Day holiday. Late yesterday, President Trump modified the auto tariffs to exclude the steel and aluminum tariffs being added to the 25% levy on autos and gave some reprieve for imported parts used for domestically made autos.

Asia Pacific equities mostly rose today but China (and South Korea) struggled. Europe's Stoxx 600 is advancing for the seventh consecutive session, while US index futures are soft. Benchmark 10-year yields are 3-4 bp lower in Europe. The 10-year US Treasury yield is about a basis point lower at 4.16%. It settled last week slightly above 4.23%. Gold is lower for the second consecutive session and is approaching Monday's low, nearly $3268. June WTI is lower for the third consecutive session. It is recovering in Europe after testing the $59.20 area, its lowest level since April 11....

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