Thursday, September 5, 2024

Dear Department of Justice: "Competition Is Coming to Nvidia, Says J.P. Morgan’s Michael Cembalest" (NVDA)

See, it's all good. Now go help the FTC with Google.

From Institutional Investor, September 4:

Most market leaders hit an “inflection” point and decline. Is Nvidia one of them?

In the midst of the so-called AI revolution, Nvidia’s 90 percent market share of advanced AI chips led it to become the largest company in the market earlier this summer. That dominance was underscored by news earlier this week that the U.S. Department of Justice sent subpoenas to Nvidia and other companies to help determine if the company violated antitrust laws.

But as dominant as Nvidia seems today, its dominance may not last, regardless of the DOJ probe. “Competition is coming,” says JPMorgan Asset Management’s Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy, in a new “Eye on the Market” report.

Moreover, he argues that “A lot of the AI revolution appears to be priced into the equity markets.”

After Bloomberg reported the U.S. probe and Cembalest’s report — among other critical analyses — was released Tuesday, Nvidia lost $279 billion in a market rout.

In his report, Cembalest points out that several semiconductor companies, cloud service providers, and other AI application developers are ramping up to take market share from Nvidia.....

.... McKinsey has projected that AI will contribute about $8 trillion to the global economy each year. But Cembalest appears skeptical. “For adequate returns on AI infrastructure to materialize, within the next 12 to 18 months we will need to see a greater shift in favor of “inference” tasks (AI used to run production models for corporate customers) rather than GPU capacity primarily being used to train foundational models and chatbots,” he says....

....MUCH MORE

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