Friday, September 6, 2024

Capital Markets: "The Market Discounts around a 40% Chance of not One but Two 50 bp Cuts in last Three FOMC Meetings of the Year Ahead of Jobs Report"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US jobs report is front and center. The market is going into the report with about a 40% chance of a 50 bp Fed rate cut later this month. The Dollar Index is trading lower for the third consecutive session. Helped by the fifth consecutive decline in US 10-year yields, the yen approached last month's high but without the turmoil seen in July and August. Still, equity markets are under pressure. Most large markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. Taiwan and Australia were exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the fifth consecutive session, the longest drop in a couple of months. The US index futures are trading below yesterday's lows. The bond markets continue to draw the safe haven flows. European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly around four basis points lower, and the 10-year US yield is slipping below 3.70%.

The dollar is softer against the yen and Swiss franc but is slightly firmer against the euro and sterling. The dollar bloc is little changed and the Scandis are trading higher. Among emerging market currencies, the Asia Pacific currencies traded higher while central European currencies are mostly heavier, including Türkiye. The South African rand and the Mexican peso are also posting small declines. Gold is trading firmly but in a narrow range (~$2513-$2522) slightly below yesterday's high (~$2523.50). OPEC's decision to postpone plans to boost October and November output has not had much impact on October WTI which is trading in a narrow range near the one-year low set yesterday near $68.75....

....MUCH MORE