Sunday, September 22, 2024

Chief Economist of Bank of China International—"Xu Gao's case for stimulus"

This is it. I would assume that he is speaking for the Bank (BOCI) with approval from the Party and the government.

From The East is Read, September 11, Part I:

Xu Gao, the Chief Economist and Assistant President of Bank of China International Co. Ltd., and an adjunct professor of the National School of Development (NSD) at Peking University, has been featured on The East is Read several times.

On August 19, 2024, Xu published a new essay on his personal WeChat blog 徐高经济观察 Xu Gao Economic Observation. This long essay, essentially making a case for Beijing to adopt stimulus measures, will be rolled out in three parts.

Amid cautious signals from the Chinese government and the widespread belief in saving policy "ammunition," Xu Gao calls for a shift to macroeconomic thinking. He contends the government shouldn't be tethered to the belief that money spent is money lost, as a company might. The government revenue isn't fixed or exhaustible but "endogenous," says he, driven by government spending, which boosts private income, consumption, and investment. Unlike individuals and businesses who see income as beyond their control, the government, following Keynesian principles, can step in when demand falters. By increasing fiscal spending and liquidity, it can generate demand where the private sector won't, matching purchasing power with the willingness to spend.

Xu argues that the real limit on stimulus isn't money supply—it's supply capacity. Rising inflation and trade deficits mean domestic supply can't keep up with demand, making further stimulus risky. But when inflation is low and there's a trade surplus, it signals excess supply, making stimulus "not only feasible but also essential."

All footnotes are by Mr. Xu, who has kindly reviewed our translation....

....MUCH MORE

BOCI is a sub. of Beijing's Bank of China, the world's fourth largest commercial bank, topping JPMorgan by $700 billion in assets,

And:

(II) Xu Gao's case for Beijing to spend: stimulus now doesn't hinder structural reforms
Chief Economist of Bank of China International continues with the sustainability and necessity of stimulus.