Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Capital Markets: "Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker Says US Economy is Expanding at 3% Clip for 3rd Quarter in Past 4, and the Fed is Going to Do What?"

Senator Warren is calling for a three-quarter point cut.*

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The dollar remains offered ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome. That no official has pushed back against the press story that some suspect was planted by the Fed Chair (will a reporter specifically ask him about it today?) during a quiet period should not be taken as evidence one way or the other. And many understand that it is not unprecedented. Still, we note that the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker was revised yesterday to 3.0% growth in Q3. The federal government is running a budget deficit around 6.5% of GDP despite the above trend growth and now the central bank is poised to cut interest rates aggressively starting today with the economy expanding at 3% for the second consecutive quarter, which would be the third quarter in four of such growth. The focus of the Fed meeting will be on the size of today's move and signal through the Summary of Economic Projections that magnitude of rate cuts projected for the remainder of this year and next.

Chinese markets re-open for the first time since the end of last week. The yuan strengthened with the help of falling US yields and a stronger yen. The equity market was narrowly mixed and mixed in the Asia Pacific region as whole. South Korean markets remained closed for the extended national holiday and Hong Kong markets were closed. The Stoxx 600 is giving back yesterday's gains while US index futures are slightly firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields are 3-5 bp higher in Europe and the 10-year US Treasury yield is up a couple basis points to 3.66%. The 10-year Chinese government bond yield fell to a new low near 2.03%. Gold is consolidating in a mostly $2566-$2576 range today. The record high as set on Monday slightly below $2590. November WTI reached a two-week high yesterday near $70.65 but has come back offered today. It below $69 in Europe. Yesterday's low was around $68.50. A loss of it would weaken the technical tone and warn of a test on $67.00-$67.50....

....MUCH MORE
*
Elizabeth Warren calls for emergency-like Fed rate cut ASAP

"This is 911, what's your emergency?"