Following on September 8's "ChatBots Are Not The Be-All And End-All Of Artificial Intelligence":
Far from it.
And all the focus on ChatBots and LLMs are more than just a distraction, they are a perverse representation of what AI is doing and will do and could potentially cost you money or opportunity or both....
For reference here is the roadmap OpenAI is pitching, via Bloomberg, July 11:
OpenAI Scale Ranks Progress Toward ‘Human-Level’ Problem Solving
....MUCH MORE
And from Decrypt, September 3:
What we know about the secretive AI projects pushing the limits of what OpenAI can do.
OpenAI
is on the cusp of releasing two groundbreaking models that could
redefine the landscape of machine learning. Codenamed Strawberry and
Orion, these projects aim to push AI capabilities beyond current
limits—particularly in reasoning, problem-solving, and language
processing, taking us one step closer to artificial general intelligence
(AGI).
Strawberry,
previously known as Q* or Q-Star, seems to be more than just a chatbot;
it focuses on showing a significant leap in AI reasoning abilities.
Sources familiar with the project have told different media outlets like
Reuters or The Information that it has demonstrated remarkable proficiency in solving complex mathematical problems and enhancing logical analysis.
Orion, meanwhile, is positioned as OpenAI’s next flagship language model,
potentially succeeding GPT-4. It's designed to outperform its
predecessor in language understanding and generation, with the added
ability to handle multimodal inputs, including text, images, and videos.
Both projects have garnered attention
from U.S. national security officials, underscoring their potential
strategic importance. This development comes as OpenAI continues to raise capital despite substantial revenue growth, likely due to the high costs associated with developing and training these advanced models.
Strawberry and reasoning power
Despite an unending flurry of speculation online, OpenAI has not said anything officially about Project Strawberry. Purported leaks, however, gravitate toward its capabilities for sophisticated reasoning.Unlike traditional models that provide rapid responses, Strawberry is said to employ what researchers call "System 2 thinking,"
able to take time to deliberate and reason through problems, rather
than predicting longer sets of tokens to complete its responses. This
approach has yielded impressive results, with the model scoring over 90
percent on the MATH benchmark—a collection of advanced mathematical
problems—according to Reuters.
Another
key innovation anticipated from Strawberry is its ability to generate
high-quality synthetic training data. This addresses a critical
challenge across AI development: the scarcity of diverse, high-quality
data for training models. If true, Strawberry not only enhances its own
capabilities, but also paves the way for more advanced models like
Orion.
Considering the huge amounts of data already scraped by OpenAI, and the privacy movement that is now very present among users unwilling to give their data to AI trainers, this feature may play an important role in the quality of future AI models—just like some users today train their own custom models using images generated by Stable Diffusion....
....MUCH MORE
Because the company is making up the roadmap and the nomenclature on the fly we are seeing some confusion in media perceptions and explanations. One recent hullabaloo was the leaked $2000 per month proposed pricing. Another is "GPT Next" Here corrected via DataConomy, September 6:
“GPT Next” isn’t OpenAI’s next big thing, yet it will be still powerful
OpenAI has clarified that "GPT Next" is not an actual product
Regarding the pricing for the next product, understanding advantage flywheels and hyper-Pareto distribution of profits is crucial to avoid sounding like a complete moron when I speak about the business end of this stuff with people much smarter than myself:
In Nvidia's World, If You (and your company) Don't Have Money You Will Not Be Able To Compete (NVDA)
The advantage flywheels
keep spinning and reinforcing each other to the point that the Pareto
distribution of profits - 20% of companies reap 80% of the profits - is
becoming Super-Pareto where 5% of the companies reap 95% of the profits
and is approaching Hyper-Pareto at maybe 2% of companies reaping 98% of profits.
It all comes down to having the resources to keep up.
I
watched Mr. Huang give the keynote and it's all a bit much to digest
before firing out comments that would make any sense at all so here are
some of today's headlines to give a taste of what the intro paragraph is
based on.
