Yeah but how many of the brethren have a cheese dip recipe in their outro?
From ZeroHedge:
One look at the market's reaction today tells you all you need to know: with virtually all major banks expecting a 5-handle on headline CPI...
- 5.1% - Goldman Sachs
- 5.1% - Citigroup
- 5.1% - JP Morgan Chase
- 5.1% - Morgan Stanley
- 5.0% - Barclays
- 5.0% - Bank of America
- 5.0% - Credit Suisse
- 5.0% - Bloomberg Economics
- 5.0% - HSBC
- 5.0% - UBS
- 5.0% - Wells Fargo
... the fact that we got the first sub-5% headline Y/Y print, the lowest in two years...
*****
....So with that in mind, here is a snapshot of some early and quick Street hot takes from various economists, traders and strategists, courtesy of Bloomberg:
Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon
The question to ask is: “Was today’s print disqualifying for Fed action in June?” “I think the answer is ‘no."
Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist
The as-expected CPI report, with some of the details promising for future inflation prints, leads us to think the knee-jerk rally and bull steepening is warranted. Though only one data point, the trend of inflation didn’t reaccelerate as some feared; we continue to think Treasury yields will remain range-bound for now, but the curve may continue to bull steepen over time.... Dropping TIPS inflation breakevens point toward a market still not concerned about price gains continuing far into the future. That risk still remains, yet the Fed will breathe a sigh of relief and feel comfortable pausing its rate hikes at the June meeting.
Ben Jeffery, rate strategist at BMO Capital
Overall, it was a slightly weaker look at consumer prices in April especially when considering the ‘super core’ figures. The bull steepening reaction resonates both with the details of the print, and also a market that was prepared for a stronger read than what was ultimately delivered. We’re on board with the steepening move, and from here we will be looking to this afternoon’s 10-year refunding as a test of duration appetite. With the inflation data now in hand, we expect a decent result for the new notes.
Giuseppe Sette, president at Toggle
This inflation report seems to suggest that for the time being, the Fed will not have a problem with inflationary pressures, which are trending as expected. With core CPI firm at 5.5%, traders would do well to remember that rates historically are always higher than inflation except during a recession. In other words, rates don’t need to rise for monetary policy to be restrictive.
Derek Tang, economist at LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics
The Fed will view falling inflation with suspicion at first because they don’t want to be burned again. Overall it was good news. They will take it as a sign of encouragement but services inflation is still too strong despite visible progress. It doesn’t rule out a June hike but doesn’t make us put it back in.”
Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial
Rent-related inflation will indicate definitive signs of easing, helping to push overall headline inflation lower. Today’s report suggests that the Fed’s campaign to quell inflation is working, albeit more slowly than they would like.
Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Financial Group
While inflation could see a 2 or 3 handle by year-end, it is where it settles out at on a sustainable basis in 2024 that should be most relevant. We know, though, that we have a slowdown in rents to come that will show up in the calculations and core inflation will continue to fall.
Anna Wong, Bloomberg chief economist
The bad news in the report is in core goods – which rose 0.3%, the fastest monthly gain since last August. Driving the increase are used-car prices, which rose 4.4% — higher than we estimated. We expect used-car prices to continue rising amid higher demand and low inventory levels.
....MUCH MORE
I don't think we've seen the high inflation print for this decade, much less this century.
Buy farmland and learn a marketable skill.
