Thursday, May 25, 2023

What's Up In Belarus? Polish General and Democracy NGO Are Talking Armed Uprising On The Way

From Charter97.org, the pro-democracy-in-Belarus NGO, May 25:

Will Belarusian Volunteers Decide To Liberate Mazyr?
The raid in the Belgorod region launched an uncomfortable discussion for Lukashenka.

Russian volunteer fighters entered the territory of the Russian Federation for the third time. The authorities of the Belgorod region have allegedly been preparing for such attacks for a long time, building fortifications, but volunteer raids are becoming more and more successful.

These raids strain not only Putin, but also Lukashenka. The Belarusian dictator is also afraid that this can happen to him.

Polish General, former Deputy Minister of Defense Waldemar Skrzypczak said that Warsaw should be ready to support the troops that will conduct an operation against Lukashenka. He clarified that he was talking about a military operation.

“It has no military potential to be able to prevent such an uprising. Russia will not help him much, as it will have its own problems,” the Polish general said about the Belarusian regime.

The statement of the Polish general caused hysteria among Lukashenka’s and the Kremlin’s media.

Ukrainian political scientist and expert of the Center for Belarusian Communications Maksim Pleshko noted that Ukraine is interested in “a free, democratic Belarus with a national consciousness” on the northern border of the country.

The expert believes that if the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ends in success, then those armed Belarusians who are part of the combat potential of the Ukrainian army will not lay down their arms, but will go to liberate Belarus from the dictatorship. Pleshko also drew attention to the professionalism of the Belarusian volunteers compared to Lukashenka's militia....

....MUCH MORE

And the day before:

Political Scientist On Polish General’s Statement: Belarusians Are To Get Ready, Big Changes Are Coming

And the day before that, May 23, one of the Ukrainian generals said Belarus' capital could be a target of opposition raiders:

SSU Major General: Belarusian Volunteers Can Repeat Raid And Reach Minsk

The nukes appear to have not yet arrived in Belarus. Three from the Belarusian Telegraph Agency (BelTA):

May 25:  "Lukashenko guarantees security of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus"

May 25:  "Belarusian-Polish border safely locked from infiltrators, Lukashenko says"

May 25: "Lukashenko comments on Poland's statements about 'impending uprising in Belarus'"

Meanwhile up north and not directly related to the Belarus doings the Telegraph is reporting:

 British troops on Nato Exercise Spring Storm in Estonia are being welcomed with open arms by the locals 

The British are supposed to be on anti-Russian maneuvers but who knows what is actually going on with all this stuff. 

If interested see also:

from February 8: 

The RAND Corporation Blueprint For Forcing Putin To Over-Extend Himself

I hope that the U.S. or NATO or whoever commissioned this study didn't pay a lot for it, it's basically the strategy that Pope John Paul II, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan came up with in the early 1980's although the details do differ. The tactical components of the RAND plan are:

 1. Arming Ukraine ;
 2. Increase support for jihadists in Syria;
 3. Promoting regime change in Belarus;
 4. Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus;
 5. Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia;
 6. Rivaling the Russian presence in Transnistria.

....MUCH MORE

The study is from 2019, its basic idea is to get Russia to overextend itself both militarily and more especially financially.