Not being one to say "I told you so"... oh who am I trying to kid...
From Reuters via Mining.com,May 9:
China’s copper imports in April fell 12.5% from the prior year, customs data showed on Tuesday, curbed by weak demand and a jump in domestic production of the metal.
Imports of unwrought copper and copper products totalled 407,294 tonnes in April, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
The metal, including anode, refined, alloy and semi-finished copper, is used widely in the construction, transportation and power sectors.
Copper demand in the world’s second-largest economy softened in April, due to subdued global demand for China’s products and persistent weakness in the country’s property market.
In addition to an unexpected contraction in April manufacturing activity, a double-digit slump in Chinese industrial firms’ first-quarter profits also pointed to a patchy economic recovery.
Shrinking orders and lower profits forced many copper products producers to cut their production in recent months.
The stagnant economic recovery coupled with higher domestic production led to the drop in imports, said Anna Xu, a Shanghai-based lead analyst at Argus Media.
The first four months saw unwrought copper imports slide 12.6% year on year to 1.7 million tonnes.
Denting demand further, copper is being used less as collateral to raise finance in the market, analysts said....
....MUCH MORE
Recently:
May 8, 2023: "World Bank: "Commodity Prices to Register Sharpest Drop Since the Pandemic" (special focus: metals)"
May 2, 2023: "Soft China PMI likely to flow through to uneven commodity demand"
April 27, 2023: "China’s Property Pain Deflates ‘Overhyped’ Iron Ore Market" (copper too)"
And going back to the Spring of 2022:
May 2022
Copper: It Is All About China's Economy
If China ever begins tearing down the tens of millions of apartments that are sitting empty the amount of supply from copper that will be recycled is mind boggling. Barring that, the huge cutback in residential construction has taken one of the largest demand factors out of the equation and except for the run-up in price we saw immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine, when it appeared China was converting their foreign exchange holdings into just about any kind of tangible stuff that would be storable, grains, metals etc., the trend since the Shanghai lockdowns became widely publicized has been pretty much unidirectional....
A few months later it actually happened:
September 1, 2022
"China tears down tower blocks in effort to boost stalling economy" (plus Keynes and copper)
There are a few dozen posts both preceding and following that May 2022 post, use the 'search blog' box if interested. Don't pay the offer. Instead, enjoy some whining and moaning from March 13 when a couple banks were in the news:
Copper: Oh Who Knows Any More
Things were proceeding according to plan, the dollar was making a major move higher and then, some rat-bastard bankers who didn't want to pay the, what, eight basis points, to hedge their interest rate exposure waited too long to raise capital while at the same time their customers, the venture capitalists and their portfolio companies, did nothing.
I mentioned a few days ago that these Jedi knights, these masters of the universe could have shored up what they are calling the heart of the Silicon Valley ecosystem, that they could have shored up the bank with three billion or so dollars with maybe another $1 or 2 billion to follow but no, just like their rat-bastard banker the rat-bastard VC's did nothing.
Meaning:
the dollar—proxied by the DXY, it excludes China though so not perfect— was making a solid move to the upside from just above 101 in early February, the dollar which is greatly influenced by relative interest rates gets hammered on the flight to quality i.e. treasuries, and by the hope that the Fed will quit fighting inflation.
Meaning the copper market, which is in almost perfect balance at the moment and was thus trading off exogenous factors like oh, the strength or weakness of the dollar, did this:
Halting the decline that was developing so nicely....
Well, we are testing support for the third time, 3.8385 down .0025. The March low was 3.8320 and in April 3.8165 so we shall see.
