Monday, March 13, 2023

Copper: Oh Who Knows Any More

Things were proceeding according to plan, the dollar was making a major move higher and then, some rat-bastard bankers who didn't want to pay the, what, eight basis points, to hedge their interest rate exposure waited too long to raise capital while at the same time their customers, the venture capitalists and their portfolio companies, did nothing.

I mentioned a few days ago that these Jedi knights, these masters of the universe could have shored up what they are calling the heart of the Silicon Valley ecosystem, that they could have shored up the bank with three billion or so dollars with maybe another $1 or 2 billion to follow but no, just like their rat-bastard banker the rat-bastard VC's did nothing. 

Meaning:

https://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?dx_d1_s.png&rev=638143498445881469

the dollar—proxied by the DXY, it excludes China though so not perfect— was making a solid move to the upside from just above 101 in early February, the dollar which is greatly influenced by relative interest rates gets hammered on the flight to quality i.e. treasuries, and by the hope that the Fed will quit fighting inflation.

Meaning the copper market, which is in almost perfect balance at the moment and was thus trading off exogenous factors like oh, the strength or weakness of the dollar, did this:

https://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?hg_d1_s.png&rev=638143498018967872

Halting the decline that was developing so nicely.

And now we have supply coming back on the market from Panama and soon from Peru and China isn't reopening anywhere near as fast as the rah-rah guys said it would and the Chinese are sending copper out of the country and big supply is being developed for later in the decade and the market won't care because it's all about the dollar and interest rates and bailouts and some skinflint banker who didn't want to pay to hedge.

Here are the headlines at Mining.com, not that anyone cares (at the moment):

Panama gives First Quantum go-ahead to operate port terminal 

China copper exports to jump in rare deliveries to LME depots

....Oyu Tolgoi is expected to become the fourth-largest copper mine in the world by 2030
 
Oh, and February's huge landslide at the world's second largest copper mine has been dealt with: Freeport Indonesia says Grasberg mine operations back to normal after floods
 
Hunter S Thompson nailed it:
"Still humping the American Dream, that vision of the Big Winner somehow emerging from the last minute pre—dawn chaos of a stale Vegas casino. Big strike in Silver City. Beat the dealer and go home rich. Why not? I stopped at the Money Wheel and dropped a dollar on Thomas Jefferson—a $2 bill, the straight Freak ticket, thinking as always that some idle instinct bet might carry the whole thing off. But no. Just another two bucks down the tube. You bastards! No. Calm down. Learn to enjoy losing.... 
 -Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

Excuse me, I have to take a moment